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Riaz Haq said...Even the Indian RBI’s Rajan is Confused by India’s New GDP Numbers
India’s statistics ministry dropped a bombshell revision of recent GDP data Friday evening, provoking some head-scratching among economists trying to make sense of the incredible (in both senses of the word) new numbers. Growth of 6.9% in the 2014 fiscal year instead of 4.7%!
Had we all been “horribly wrong” about the Indian economy? Was the previous, Congress party-led government voted out on specious premises? Were the data fudged?
On Tuesday, Raghuram Rajan kept a cooler head.
“I don’t want to say anything about the numbers until we understand them better,” the Reserve Bank of India governor told reporters after announcing his decision to hold the policy interest rate at 7.75%. He said it would be “premature to take a strong view” based on the updated data. The central bank also kept its forecast for GDP growth for the year that ends next month at 5.5%—and, notably, continued to report the forecast using the old base year.
GDP growth in a year that ended nearly 11 months ago might not be the most immediately pertinent data point for deciding today’s monetary policy. But Mr. Rajan’s hesitation about embracing the new figures at least shows that policy makers aren’t junking their old narratives about the economy until the new GDP methodology yields a more-complete picture of recent trends.
Mr. Rajan, like others, pointed to the preponderance of other data that show continued stagnation that year: falling imports, sluggish auto sales. “We find it hard to see the economy as rollicking in 2013-14,” he said.
“I am puzzled by the new GDP growth numbers,” said Arvind Subramanian, the government’s chief economic adviser, in an interview with the Business Standard newspaper. He noted that the year that ended March 2014 was a crisis year for India, the year of the “taper tantrum,” capital outflows, the roiled rupee and RBI monetary tightening.
“I am not saying these [GDP] estimates are wrong in any way, only that these bear further scrutiny,” Mr. Subramanian said.
Of course, it’s not as if the RBI could have changed its forecasts on a dime even if it had wanted to. Most industrial-grade models used for such purposes rely on quarterly data to assess the dynamics of the economy.
Rudrani Bhattacharya of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi said that with only the revised 2012-13 and 2013-14 annual growth rates available so far, the best she can do is use some simplistic assumptions to generate a quick-and-dirty revised forecast: “a mere scenario analysis,” she said.
Next Monday’s data release—when we’ll get GDP for each of the last three quarters as well as an advance estimate of growth for the whole fiscal year—is still the one to watch
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/...-rajan-is-confused-by-indias-new-gdp-numbers/
India set to retain fastest growing Prostitution economy tag
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prostitution_in_India
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it looks you are sad ?
enjoy this padistani song ,your gloomy future is bright in hira mandi . economy of hiramandi is growing at 13.5 percent , you have a bright future .(bigsmile)
LOL @ Riaz Haq
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This is the reality of the 7.9 % data fudge [hilar][hilar][hilar] :
Economists question the quality of India’s GDP data. Capital Economics‘s Shilan Shah thinks the GDP number does not fit well with other data series:
For instance, today’s [GDP] data show manufacturing expanding 9.3% y/y last quarter. By contrast, the monthly data on industrial productionshow output rising just 0.2% y/y in Q1, from growth of 1.8% y/y in Q4.
In addition, the major driver of the pick-up in growth last quarter came from net exports, which added to 0.5 percentage points to growth from zero in the previous quarter. Global economies are volatile and foreign demand can come and go. Domestic consumption growth, on the other hand, barely accelerated.
LOL I quoted top media houses of world confirming and you are giving me an unknown blog
you know one can always find an odd negative article when there are hundred of positive ones
exceptions are always there
next time quote something more mainstream
You changing fonts is not going to hide who you really are [hilar] ...anyways ...forget about the articles I can post 10 articles to refute your propaganda up here ...Why dont you read and answer whats in the articles ?? :biggthumpup:
1. If GDD has grown by 7.9 % then how have exports fallen in q1 2016 ??
Here is the source for exports check it out yourself : http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/exports
2. Auto makers reporting a year over year slowdown have only had a Good March in years .
Here is the data : http://www.autocarpro.in/analysis-sales/india-sales-analysis-january-2016-10319
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3. Motorcycle sales which is another very good Indicator has only had a good march but nothing else
Here is the data : http://www.autocarpro.in/analysis-sales/india-sales-analysis-january-2016-10319
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4. Tractor sales have had ONLY modest growth.
5. Bank Loan growths a factor which determines credit made available to companies is slowing from 21.5 % in May 2015 to May 2016
Here is the Proof : http://www.livemint.com/Politics/7a...oan-growth-subdued-at-165-yoy-in-May-RBI.htmlBanks loan growth subdued at 16.5% y-o-y in May: RBI
6. Not only that but India's Bad loan situation is getting even worse
Here is proof : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...coming-for-india-s-pigs-with-lipstick-lenders
India's Ugly Bad-Loans Situation Is About to Get Even Worse
7. The number of STALLED Industrial Projects has ONLY increased in India
Here is Times of India reporting it : http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...-says-EVKS-Elangovan/articleshow/52263818.cms
8. Manufacturing capacity Utilization : How can exports take a nose dive and manufacturing tank but yet you are manufacturing utilization rate stand at 9% ??
http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2016/02/10/5-charts-that-show-india-might-be-overstating-its-growth/
Now, these are not exceptions, actual figures and several from Indian sources, producing stats and actual economy are two different things. If you can, refute me on these points please - Otherwise dont bother :biggthumpup:
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