Kashmir survey - London based thinktank Chatham House

desicad

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Just 2% of people in J&K want to join Pak: Survey
TNN, May 28, 2010, 01.00am IST

NEW DELHI: For those who still think a plebiscite will tilt the status of Kashmir and that most Kashmiris yearn to wave the Pakistani green, there are now numbers for the first time to contradict these claims.

A survey carried out across both Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, that its author claims is the first ever of its kind, shows that only 2% of the respondents on the Indian side favour joining Pakistan and most such views were confined to Srinagar and Budgam districts. In six of the districts surveyed late last year by researchers from the London-based thinktank Chatham House, not a single person favoured annexation with Pakistan, a notion that remains the bedrock for the hardline separate campaign in Kashmir.

However, the study by Robert Bradrock, a scholar from London's Kings College, that involved interviewing 3,774 people in both parts of Kashmir in September-October 2009 showed that 44% of people on the Pakistani side favoured independence, compared to 43% in Indian Kashmir.

Bradrock says in the 37-page report on the survey that this would put an end for all times to come to the plebiscite route as a possible way to resolve Kashmir, since the only two options envisaged under the UN resolutions proposing plebiscite in 1948/49 were for the whole of Kashmir to join either India or Pakistan; azadi was not an option. But in the Valley, the mood for azadi still remained strong, with 75%-95% respondents favouring that as a final resolution.

The poll showed no support either for joint sovereignty or for maintaining status quo. However, more than 58% of those surveyed were prepared to accept the Line of Control as a permanent border if it could be liberalized for greater people-to-people contact and trade. Only 8% voted against making the LoC a permanent boundary, with the highest level of opposition in Anantnag district, the report said.

Few people in Kashmir, compared to many more in PoK, believed that violence was likely to resolve the Kashmir issue.

In J&K, only 20% thought that militant violence would help solve the problem, compared to nearly 40% who thought it was coming in the way of a resolution. In PoK, 37% of those surveyed held the view that violence was a possible route to resolution.

That both the state legislative elections in 2008 and the Lok Sabha elections in 2009 had helped bring about a change in mindsets was seen in the increasingly high turnouts that Kashmir has posted in recent years.

The survey too demonstrated that trend, with more than half the respondents saying the elections had improved chances for peace.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...nt-to-join-Pak-Survey/articleshow/5982710.cms
 

Geek

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Then why are you so afraid from plebiscite. Let em vote. "dodh ka dodh pani ka pani ho gaye ga"
 

gazoomartian

Prime Minister (20k+ posts)
Then why are you so afraid from plebiscite. Let em vote. "dodh ka dodh pani ka pani ho gaye ga"

I cant read his post because he is my ignore list. But from what I see there has been a survey claiming only 2% want to join Pak. If that's what it is then Indians are very idiot. They have put 1000 of troops to suppress only 2%. What a waste of army resources. Instead the Indian army should fight sikhs who are asking for their homeland Khalistan.

Loved your answer geek well said
 

rajakhanmd

Senator (1k+ posts)
Same story in BBC gives a different feeling. An entirely different feeling.

A survey which a British academic says is the first systematic attempt to establish the opinions of Kashmiris has produced "striking results".
Robert Bradnock interviewed more than 3,700 people in Indian- and Pakistani-administered Kashmir to assess their views on various issues.
One of the key questions put to respondents was how they saw the future of the territory.
Nearly half of those interviewed said they wanted independence.
Another question asked for their views over the continuing insurgency.
Dr Bradnock - an associate fellow at the Chatham House think-tank in London - says that the survey has produced startling conclusions, especially in relation to the future of the territory.
No 'simple fixes'
It revealed that on average 44% of people in Pakistani-administered Kashmir favoured independence, compared with 43% in Indian-administered Kashmir.
"However while this is the most popular option overall, it fails to carry an overall majority on either side.
"In fact on the Indian side of the Line of Control [LoC] - which separates the two regions - opinions are heavily polarised," Dr Bradnock told the BBC.
The survey found that the "overwhelming majority" of people want a solution to the dispute, even though there are no "simple fixes".
Dr Bradnock said that in the Kashmir valley - the mainly Muslim area at the centre of the insurgency - support for independence is between 74% and 95%.
But in the predominantly Hindu Jammu division to the south, support is under 1%.
Other findings include:
80% of Kashmiris on both sides of the LoC say that the dispute is important to them personally
Concern over human rights abuses stands at 43% on the Indian side and 19% on the Pakistani side
Concern over unemployment is strong across the territory - 66% on the Pakistani side and 87% on the Indian side
Few are optimistic over peace talks - only 27% on the Pakistani side and 57% on the Indian side thought they would succeed.
Dr Bradnock said that it was "clear" that a plebiscite on the future of Kashmir - along the lines envisaged in UN resolutions of 1948-49 - is "extremely unlikely to offer a solution today".
"The results of the polls show that that there is no single proposition for the future of Kashmir which could be put to the population... and get majority support," he said.

"The poll offers no simple fixes but offers signposts - through which the political process, engaging India, Pakistan and wider Kashmiri representation - could move it towards resolution.
 
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rajakhanmd

Senator (1k+ posts)
I could not find ''Just 2% of people in J&K want to join Pak'' anywhere else except in Times of India. Maybe, being a Kashmiri, I am biased. If someone else finds it, please let me know. Times of India mentions partial stats. Just to give a clear picture, consider some examples.

1-Bradrock says in the 37-page report on the survey that this would put an end for all times to come to the plebiscite route as a possible way to resolve Kashmir, since the only two options envisaged under the UN resolutions proposing plebiscite in 1948/49

Dr Bradnock said that it was "clear" that a plebiscite on the future of Kashmir - along the lines envisaged in UN resolutions of 1948-49 - is "extremely unlikely to offer a solution today".

Ignoring the differences in the language quoted by Times of India and original text, this is something that has been realised by both Pakistan and India for sometime now. Two serious efforts to solve the Kashmir issue in the last 15 years (NS and Vajapaee and Gen. Sb tenure) both were not based on plebiscite.

2- However, more than 58% of those surveyed were prepared to accept the Line of Control as a permanent border if it could be liberalized for greater people-to-people contact and trade. Only 8% voted against making the LoC a permanent boundary

Maybe, you will not give the importance to ''IF'' until and unless you read the following.

Only 27% of all Kashmiris are in favour of the LoC in its present form (22% in Pakistani-administered Kashmir and 29% in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.). In three districts in Kashmir valley support for the present LoC falls to 1%, while in Kargil it is 0%. However, if the movement across the LoC were to be fully liberalised, support for keeping the LoC rises dramatically to 85% overall.
Even in the Kashmir valley it rises to over 80%, and in Pakistani-administered Kashmir to over 90%.

3-The headline figures of 44% (in Pakistani-administered Kashmir) and 43% (in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir) opting for independence, for example, conceals wide regional disparities.
While in the predominantly Muslim Kashmir Valley in Indian-administered Kashmir, the proportion in favour of independence ranged from 74%-95%.But in the four districts of the predominantly Hindu Jammu part of Indian-administered Kashmir, there was virtually no support for independence at all.


If I accept this survey as it is, ( ignoring some ground realities, possibility of some bias, statistical or otherwise), its amazing to see that Kashmiris on both side think alike. ( 44% of people in Pakistani-administered Kashmir favoured independence, compared with 43% in Indian-administered Kashmir. for LOC, 22% in Pakistani-administered Kashmir and 29% in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir and if movement is FULLY liberalized then, in the Kashmir valley it rises to over 80%, and in Pakistani-administered Kashmir to over 90%.). The only major difference is the 74-95% support for Independence in Valley and that is not a news/surprise for me.
 
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hassam

MPA (400+ posts)
Think tanks is another tool used by western countries to force their opinion on people and frustrate them. So they are claiming that they had a survey with who. It is like Pervez Musharaf claiming that since he is the most popular politician on facebook he can win the elections. Ignoring the masses and doing selected surveys and then create a think tank made up of bunch of hired guns is their tool for proliferation of their own mind set.

I have a think tank in my neighbour hood that thinks that according to a poll they conducted they have found out that 99% of indian population want to live in Pakistan but they are scared that there is not much room there now. go figure.
 

bons

Minister (2k+ posts)
Think tanks is another tool used by western countries to force their opinion on people and frustrate them. So they are claiming that they had a survey with who. It is like Pervez Musharaf claiming that since he is the most popular politician on facebook he can win the elections. Ignoring the masses and doing selected surveys and then create a think tank made up of bunch of hired guns is their tool for proliferation of their own mind set.

I have a think tank in my neighbour hood that thinks that according to a poll they conducted they have found out that 99% of indian population want to live in Pakistan but they are scared that there is not much room there now. go figure.

Very true analysis of think tanks. They should be named thug tanks.
 

Super123

Councller (250+ posts)
@ Desicad..............What are you doing here, go to some Indian forum they will buy it. And What about Naxalites, seven sister states whats there survey tell you.

Then why its the Highest Miltarized Zone on Earth. 700,000 troops are laying eggs over there. If there is so much support for India.





And I don't want to mention Gujrat riots.................................................I have one word for you.................F*** OFF
 

gazoomartian

Prime Minister (20k+ posts)
From time to time as needed the white population,mainly UK and US, does that to influence the region and enforce their agende. I am willing to bet that India and others a major role in producing the report.

We should brand it a 'mala fide' report. Now some should do a survey to find how many Sikhs are asking for Khalistan, and how many other minorities, like Naxelits, naga, Assamis, etc would love to have their own countries.

Lets start with Khalistan now.

Gazoo Martian
The Director General of Pakistan, need of the time

Pakistan Paindabad