(CNN) -- The United States has evidence that the chemical weapon sarin has been used in Syria on a small scale, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Thursday.
But numerous questions remain about the origins of the chemicals and what impact their apparent use could have on the ongoing Syrian civil war and international involvement in it.
When asked if the intelligence community's conclusion pushed the situation across President Barack Obama's "red line" that could potentially trigger more U.S. involvement in the Syrian civil war, Hagel said U.S. officials are still assessing the situation and need all the facts.
In a letter to lawmakers, the White House cautioned that given "the stakes involved and what we have learned from our own recent experience, intelligence assessments alone are not sufficient. Only credible and corroborated facts that provide us with some degree of certainty will guide our decision making."
Read Rodriguez's letter to Sen. Levin (.PDF)
The letter, sent to U.S. Sens. Carl Levin and John McCain, said that intelligence analysts have concluded "with varying degrees of confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale in Syria, specifically the chemical agent sarin."
Hagel said that U.S. officials have not been able to confirm the origins of the sarin, but that they believe it originated with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which has been battling a rebellion for more than two years.
"The chain of custody is not clear, so we cannot confirm how the exposure occurred and under what conditions," the White House said in the letter.
Read the letter to Sen. McCain (.PDF)
The administration is "pressing for a comprehensive United Nations investigation that can credibly evaluate the evidence and establish what took place," according to the letter.
In response to the announcement, McCain urged the administration to work for the establishment of a safe zone for Syrian rebels.
"The president of the United States said that if Bashar Assad used chemical weapons that it would be a game changer, that it would cross a red line," McCain said. "I think it is pretty obvious that red line has been crossed."
The announcement comes a few days after an Israeli intelligence official said Damascus was using weapons banned under international law against its own people in the country's civil war. Syria has said rebels have used chemical weapons
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/25/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html
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U.S. Says It Suspects Assad Used Chemical Weapons
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/w...-used-chemical-weapons.html?hp&_r=0#p[WTWWTW]WASHINGTON — The White House said on Thursday that American intelligence agencies now believed, with “varying degrees of confidence,” that the Syrian government had used chemical weapons, but it said it needed conclusive proof before President Obama would take action.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/w...-used-chemical-weapons.html?hp&_r=0#p[TdiTdi]The disclosure, in letters to Congressional leaders, takes the administration a step closer to acknowledging that President Bashar al-Assad has crossed a red line established by Mr. Obama last summer, when he said the United States would take unspecified action against Syria if there was evidence that chemical weapons had been used in the civil war.
The White House emphasized that, “given the stakes involved,” the United States still needed “credible and corroborated facts” before deciding on a course of action. The letter, signed by the president’s director of legislative affairs, Miguel E. Rodriguez, said the United States was pressing for a “comprehensive United Nations investigation that can credibly evaluate the evidence and establish what happened.”
Although the White House said it could not confirm the circumstances in which victims were exposed to chemical weapons, it said it believed that the chemical agent sarin had been used. “We do believe,” the letter said, “that any use of chemical weapons in Syria would very likely have originated with the Assad regime.”
Britain, in a letter last month requesting a United Nations investigation, cited three episodes in which it suspected that chemical weapons had been used: in a village west of Aleppo and on the outskirts of Damascus, both on March 19, and in Homs on Dec. 24.
Secretary of State John Kerry, emerging from a Congressional hearing, said that the United States believed that chemical weapons had been used in two instances, though he did not offer details.
Faced with mounting pressure to act against Syria — including a new assertion by an Israeli military intelligence official on Tuesday that Syria repeatedly used chemical weapons — the United States is waiting for the results of an exhaustive analysis of soil, hair and other material to determine whether chemical warfare agents have been used.
Even if that investigation proves the use of chemicals, an official said, the White House must determine who used them and whether they were used deliberately or accidentally. He did not offer a timetable for that process.
“It is precisely because this is a red line that we have to establish with airtight certainty that this happened,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity so he could discuss internal deliberations. “The bar on the United States is higher than on anyone else, both because of our capabilities and because of our history in Iraq.”
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, speaking in Cairo during a Middle East tour that has been dominated by worries about Syria, said, “Suspicions are one thing; evidence is another.”
Some analysts say they worry that if the United States waits too long, it will embolden Mr. Assad, who has steadily escalated the lethality of the weapons used against the opposition. The government’s use of chemical weapons in isolated episodes, these experts said, would be a way to test international reaction before using them on a wider scale.
Moreover, analysts said, the investigation, which is being conducted by the United Nations, has been hobbled because its inspectors have not been allowed into Syria. Also, the scope of that investigation does not extend to who used the weapons, focusing merely on whether chemical agents were used. The United States is also conducting its own assessment, as are Israel and other countries.
Last August, Mr. Obama threatened the Syrian government with unspecified American action if there was any evidence that chemical weapons were being used or moved on a large scale. On Tuesday, Israel’s top military intelligence analyst, Brig. Gen. Itai Brun, said at a security conference in Tel Aviv that the Syrian government had used chemical weapons, and he criticized the international community for not doing more in response
“The president’s red line appears to have been crossed,” said Martin S. Indyk, a former American ambassador to Israel. “The administration has to take some time to decide what to do about it.”
“But if they end up leaving the impression that the president is not willing to enforce his red line,” said Mr. Indyk, who is now at the Brookings Institution, “that will have consequences in the region, particularly when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program, as well as for our ability to deter Assad’s use of chemical weapons in Syria.”
Administration officials said their assessment of chemical weapons in Syria was not much different from that of Britain and France, which sent letters to the United Nations’ secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, last month urging a thorough investigation of the accusations.
Although Britain and France laid out allegations of chemical weapons attacks in three places in Syria, neither country said it was certain that chemical weapons had been used, according to copies of the letters obtained by The New York Times.
Even within Israel, the military’s assessment has not been fully embraced by government officials and analysts who follow Syria. Several officials said Wednesday that while they did not doubt the evidence, they worried that the general’s speech would be used to pressure Washington.
“Every intelligence branch can submit its own assessment,” said an Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “The issue of chemical weapons is being examined by Israel and the United States at the most senior levels, and is still being discussed.”
Another official said that was the reason that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Mr. Kerry on Tuesday that he could not confirm the assessment.
“There’s a difference between what the I.D.F. feels is the truth as they see it and what we feel is appropriate for the dialogue between the two governments,” he said, referring to the Israel Defense Forces. “Don’t read into this an effort to force America’s hand.”
Mr. Hagel, in Egypt, declared that Washington would not be rushed into action by foreign intelligence reports, even those from allies. The administration, he said, has to be “very careful” before drawing conclusions and, if necessary, changing its policy, and should await a full review by United States intelligence agencies.
Administration officials said that the Pentagon had prepared a menu of military options for Mr. Obama if he concluded that there was incontrovertible evidence that chemical weapons had been used. Those options, one official said, could include missile strikes on Syrian aircraft from American ships in the Mediterranean or commando raids.
Last fall, the United States military secretly sent a task force of 150 planners and other specialists to Jordan to help deal with an influx of refugees from neighboring Syria, as well as the possibility that Syria could lose control of its chemical weapons stockpiles.
On Tuesday, at a NATO meeting in Brussels, Mr. Kerry said that the alliance should plan for the possibility of a chemical weapons attack by Syria. Turkey, a NATO member that borders the country, would be most at risk from such an attack. Mr. Kerry later clarified that he had not been calling for a specific NATO role in responding to Syria.
Experts on chemical warfare said the administration’s methodical approach was warranted. The evidence that has emerged so far is suggestive of chemical attacks, they said, but not conclusive. Syrian government forces could have used riot-control gas that, while extremely powerful, does not qualify as a chemical warfare agent, like sarin gas.
“It’s not a smoking gun, at least so far,” said Keith Ward, an expert on chemical warfare who worked for the Department of Homeland Security and the Navy and is now advising Human Rights Watch.
Critics, while acknowledging the murkiness of the situation, said the White House was setting the bar too high. “They’re not going to be able to have that smoking gun,” said Andrew Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/w...ts-assad-used-chemical-weapons.html?hp&_r=0#h[]
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Christiane Amanpour @camanpour1h
BREAKING: U.S. has evidence that chemical weapons used in Syria, defense secretary says
..see my interview w/ Free Syrian Army general who had already told me he had 'clear proof chemical weapons used’ http://on.cnn.com/1476CRA
Christiane Amanpour @camanpour18h
How does Israel know #Syria has used sarin gas? http://on.cnn.com/10dVMkE
