The Black Swan Event?

Kamran Stu

MPA (400+ posts)

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.


Prime Minister (20k+ posts)
So this incident is manufactured to point fingers at Pakistan, and start some skirmish which would serve 2 purposes. ?
1. help Modi in the upcoming elections
2. shakeup Pak govt.

For one, I dont think Modi has a wide support base anymore. Business community in India hates him. Common man despises him. The only group that runs after him is the one with a bigoted mindset. The type of crowd that supports Trump. So if he starts something, hes going to get more clapback than expected.

Secondly, Pak govt may be a coalition, and may have cunning opponents, but one thing PTI has that no other govt ever had, is broad public support, as well as support of the institutions. So anyone trying anything funny will probably shoot themselves in the foot.