Re: TuQ's Long March and Political Outcomes
Altaf its just supposed to be a pool of different facts and opinions. You can add your thoughts to this.
I have gone through it keenly and feel enriched,too. Thanks for hard work.
1. PPP and PML-N response to TUQ march can not be labelled as support necessarily. The ruling class was not sure whether to harness the movement by repression or let it go freely. They attempted both ways with uncertanity at different stages. Fear of a bang resulting from confrontation and possible spill over country wide was one factor.
2. WUM factor does not count decisively in such mega state of matters. Still broadminded scholars like TUQ offer some hope at least for Shia community, which is trying to find its right place in terror ridden new Pakistan. TUQ's followers can be identified as religiously motivated people but the whole show was about implementation of values and laws acknowledged by democracy as well as Islam.
3. TTP sparing TUQ's march, being a potential target can be understood if initially we decide to believe that TTP is a human body, has certain goals and has some reasons to fight against Pakistan. No matter we agree with them or not, still TTP is a reality on the ground. TUQ does not condone terrorism but has a broad socio democratic agenda, TTP has a religiously overloaded vision for Pakistan and they have zero tolerance for liberals but still they are talking of a human society. TTP spared TUQ on human grounds, wisely avoiding another Malala type outcry. If one likes to look for some "reasons" behind that, it is up to him.
4. Pakistani channels can be identified with their interest when certain opinion making drive with repeated instances is noted but just scattered comments in such a fluid situation are not enough to decide something fishy. Admiringly, I see your capability of a fiction writer who knows the plot beforehand and picks threads in time.I remembered by instinct "The Day of Jackal" and "If Tomorrow Comes" while reading your article.
5. GoP was in court as a routine matter and SC also did what it did, in quite professional way but only the timing of the verdict became the last straw of the moment for PPP and it gave chance to theorists to weave more, with whatever material they had on hand.
6. A lot many people use the word "establishment" in their imaginary world. Some play it as a monster which does not allow civilian rulers to have a say in foreign policy, anti-terror strategy or nuclear issues. Some paint it a Tiger turned Cat in face a defiant democratic national face, strong pro-democracy stand by West, outspoken Pakistani media and too busy on local front. In my view establishment is hand in hand with ruling class and both have a joint task defined by US. Nobody can imagine a Pakistan with its security system collapsing, Railway, the bloodline in case of Indian aggression coming to halt and Air Force loosing 11 Jets (Mirage, mostly) in 18 months only because PAF lacks proper maintenance for no funds available. Can establishment go that far with patience where Pakistan's financial sovereignty and operational integrity shrinking fast at the hands of civilian looters ? Will establishment put Pakistan itself at stake for sake of the romance for baby democracy in cradle for decades ? No, establishment will use necessary leverage to keep things on track. But it does not as we see. That means US plan to harness the fundamentalist state by pushing it towards default is in place and our so called stake holders are under a big thumb.
7. Qadri is not a player but catalyst of another sort. If US is happy with 5 years of our subservience, Qadri is out to disturb that. So, the current ruling set up is the best and time tested choice for US.
8. In fluid situation, I can not predict the ultimate winners of this game, unless it settles down with more realities in place.
9. Many politicians have pointed out the flaws, labeling him a liar, actor etc. One basic problem with putting him under microscope is that he is basically a preacher, nor a politician and insensitive to word count or pseudo accountability. He spoke of 4 million, brought 50 to 80,000 that became a stigma. But the tongues out are political and wickedly hiding the fact that GoP has played a role in blocking protesters at times in last 48 hours. Will anybody tell me when it was in Pakistan's history when a boisterous politician successfully proved what he spoke of. In a country where scale of grandeur and power is to seek animal embodiment, Sher-e-Punjab or casting shadows beyond our borders, like Fakhar-e-Asia, Qadri's intention to gather 4 million but bagging 70-80 thousand only is failure of character or strategy ?
Qadri changes stance ? interesting really. He changes order of popular demands but remains committed to the basic line which is to keep constitutional, electoral, moral and national norms up and above. Since he is basically a preacher, he plays heart beat of masses in his words, it is job of politicians and people of law to transform it into legal order.
sedqal ! hopefully you have witnessed some of those "babus" in mother arms, smiling at you.
10. Tensions on LOC have something to do with scenario inside Islamabad ? If I believe what Pakistan has said and what you are trying to paint, head of Indian soldier must be in Qadri's truck. Do you mind to make a physical confirmation ?
11. I admire your effort to peep into prism of eternity to recover glimpse of the future. I do not believe in guess work which is the very base of your master piece. Our future can be judged from our present and our intentions. I believe Pakistan's next 10 years will not be different to our current decade, except that Pakistan will have been fully sedated with heavy doses of sectarianism, manipulation, lawlessness and poverty. Pakistan, as a burning kiln helps promote Western designs for this region easier. But the decisive historic turn also lies in the same decade or so. When state will be moving like a drunk hippy under duress, this nuclear state will become a threat for peace and security particularly for Asia and the world in general. One page resolution in UN will make it mandatory to keep our nuclear arsenal under international protection. That is how I see the future, pertaining to current path of our ruling class, sincerity of establishment and idiocy of us, the common Pakistanis.
