Pakistan Economy & Budget; NIA Pathankot Report; Hillary v Trump

[RiazHaq]

http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/06/pakistan-economy-budget-nia-pathankot.html


Hows Pakistani economy doing? Is it gaining strength? How are the major economic indicators looking? What are Nawaz Sharif governments economic priorities? How has it allocated spending in budget 2016-17 presented to National Assembly by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar? Why does Pakistan rely almost entirely on indirect taxation to raise revenue? Why is there such disproportionate burden for revenue placed on the poor and the middle-income Pakistanis? Why is the taxation system in Pakistan so regressive? What needs to be done to broaden the tax net to increase revenue and make the taxation system more fair. What should the provincial governments do? Should they impose at least a modest agriculture income tax and various service taxes to raise revenue?

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How did the Indian National Investigation Agency conclude that Pakistan and its agencies had no role inPathankot incident in India? Why are they now backtracking from this conclusion? What evidence of India-Pakistan border breach do they have to implicate Pakistani nationals in the incident? Or is it just Indian media hype, part of the Indian government propaganda by some elements to unfairly malign Pakistan?

What are Donald Trumps and Hillary Clinton's strategies for the general elections in November 2016? Can Trump win by attacking minorities and women? Why the did Trump so personally and viciously attack US Federal Judge Gonzalo Curiel and New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez? Will Hillarys strategy of questioning Trumps temperament to be US president work? Will she use fear of mercurial Trumps potential actions as president with his finger on the nuclear button to scare off voters from the Republican candidate?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these questions with panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

[video]http://dai.ly/video/x4elbrk[/video]

http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/06/pakistan-economy-budget-nia-pathankot.html

 

[RiazHaq]

Top 3 #EmergingMarkets to Place Money on: #Pakistan, #India, Central & Eastern #Europe Now http://on.barrons.com/1Uk1MVJ via @barronsonline

INVESTORS SHOULD POKE AROUND for opportunities in these markets in Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe rather than in Latin America.

Pakistan: MSCI says it will announce a decision this month on reclassifying Pakistan from a frontier market to emerging market. Its GDP is expected to grow at a 4.7% clip in the 2016 fiscal year, and its leaders are discussing economic progress with the International Monetary Fund as a $6.6 billion loan package expires this year. The Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF (PAK), while up 13% this year, is down about 5% over the past 12 months.

India: The health of the economy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is set to visit the U.S. this coming week, defies anxiety about bad bank loans and doubts about India’s recalibrated GDP calculations. Standard & Poor’s lowered its credit ratings on Indian Overseas Bank and Bank of India last week, but expects the government to continue to infuse state-run banks with capital. The Reserve Bank of India recently eased restrictions on foreign ownership of private lenders, which should help weaker banks. We reiterate our February recommendation, HDFC Bank (HDB), up 6% this year.

Central and Eastern Europe: These economies are likely to see 3% annual growth and outpace Russia, where the economy is set to slowly recover over the next year, according to Capital Economics. The firm expects Romania’s economy to be among the region’s best performers in 2016. Poland may grow at a 3% clip this year, but political turmoil and inflation bear watching. The SPDR S&P Emerging Europe ETF (GUR) is up 13% so far this year, despite a heavy dose of Russian and Turkish assets.

Where is caution appropriate? Argentina. Wells Fargo last week suggested avoiding Argentina’s stocks and bonds as the economy contracts under the weight of needed economic reform. The country devalued its currency, inflation spiked, and agricultural exports are suffering, with customer Brazil in sorry shape. The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) is up 17% in 2016.

Of course, all emerging assets will suffer if investors make a fast exit from developing-country bond markets, which have grown exponentially since previous cycles. But it’s likely the Fed’s trumpets have already heralded that move.

 

[RiazHaq]

Growing fear inside #GOP about #Trump reminiscent of loss of #USCongress after #Goldwater's 1964 defeat @CNNPolitics

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/05/politics/gop-fears-donald-trump-judge-attack/index.html

The GOP's deepest fear: A Barry Goldwater effect that could last far longer than Trump's political aspirations.
Goldwater, the Arizona senator who was the 1964 GOP nominee and a leader of the conservative movement, alienated a generation of African-American voters by opposing the Civil Rights Act -- opening the door for Democrats to lock in their support for decades. Republicans fret that Trump could similarly leave a stain with Latino voters.

"I am concerned about that," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, said Sunday.
"America is changing. When Ronald Reagan was elected, 84% of the electorate was white," McConnell said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "This November, 70% will be. It's a big mistake for our party to write off Latino Americans. And they're an important part of the country and soon to be the largest minority group in the country."
"I hope he'll change his direction on that," said McConnell, who first made the Goldwater comparison last week in an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper.
That hasn't happened yet. In interviews Sunday, Trump wouldn't back away from his assertion that Curiel's parents' birth in Mexico has left the judge angry over Trump's proposal to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and biased in the legal case over Trump University. Trump even went further, saying on CBS' "Face the Nation" that he'd have similar concerns over a Muslim judge, since he has proposed banning all Muslims from entering the United States.
Trump's remarks led to condemnations from the same leading Republicans that in recent weeks have embraced him -- and accepted that the party's fate in November is inextricably linked to his.
"I don't agree with what he had to say," McConnell said.

"This is a man who was born in Indiana," McConnell said of Curiel. "All of us came here from somewhere else. Almost all Americans are either near-term immigrants like my wife, who came here at age 8 not speaking a word of English, or the rest of us whose ancestors were risk-takers who came here and made this country great. That's an important part of what makes America work."
House Speaker Paul Ryan, just a day after announcing his endorsement of Trump, bashed him on a Wisconsin radio station.
"Look, the comment about the judge, just was out of left field for my mind," Ryan said Friday on WISN in Milwaukee. "It's reasoning I don't relate to, I completely disagree with the thinking behind that."
The criticism from McConnell and Ryan was predictable: Both preside over GOP majorities that are threatened thanks to competitive races in Latino-heavy states like Arizona, Nevada and Florida.
More surprising was the condemnation from Gingrich, who has transparently jockeyed for a spot on Trump's ticket.
"I don't know what Trump's reasoning was, and I don't care," Gingrich told The Washington Post. "His description of the judge in terms of his parentage is completely unacceptable."
Gingrich was even sharper on "Fox News Sunday," calling Trump's remarks "inexcusable."

 

[RiazHaq]

Did #Pakistan #GDP really grow by 4.7%, Or was it just 3.1% as #SPDC says? Hear Riaz Haq's analysis.. https://youtu.be/ozUN_hZ89fc via @YouTube

 

[RiazHaq]

#Pakistan shares end higher ahead of #MSCI announcement to upgrade country to #EmergingMarkets status http://reut.rs/1VUulOH via @Reuters

Pakistani stocks closed higher on Monday in a volatile trading session ahead of a much-anticipated MSCI announcement on whether the bourse would be reclassified as an emerging market, analysts said.

The benchmark 100-share index of the Pakistan Stock Exchange finished 0.11 percent higher at 36,979.96.

The index clocked in an intraday range of more than 440 points, hitting a low of 36,637.81 in early trading before bouncing back towards the end of the session.

"Market sentiment remained sombre today, in line with sentiment seen in global equities and commodities ahead of central bank meetings in the U.S., U.K. and Japan this week," said Gohar Rasool, head of international sales at Inter Market Securities Pvt Ltd.

MSCI is due to announce whether it will be reclassifying Pakistan as an emerging market on Tuesday.

The stock exchange was dropped from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 2008, but Pakistan has in recent months launched a final push to get back in so it can vastly expand its pool of potential investors.

Among index heavyweights that gained on the day were Engro Fertilizers Ltd, MCB Bank Ltd and Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd.

Oil stocks took a hit as international crude oil prices declined. Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd closed down 0.93 percent while Pakistan Oilfields Ltd was down 0.75 percent.

Traded volume on the day stood at 104.7 million shares, with traded value at 6.67 billion rupees ($63.83 million).