Tahir ul Qadri Long March and Political Outcomes

S

Sedqal

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
@gotti @mrk123 @zhohaq @rtabasum2 (anyone else who wants to take part please keep it civil, no boasting and abusing. Share your opinion not your loyalties)

What is going on with TuQ's long march. Some highlights (you can add yours)

1 - TuQ reached Islamabad with full protocol from PMLN and PPP. Once TuQ was in Islamabad and his designs became obvious GoP still did not stop additional people coming from outside Islamabad.

2 - Wahdat ul Muslameen (A Shi'ite organization) publicly took a stand in favor of TuQ. A day later Hazara Shi'ites started the strike with ONE POINT agenda Governor rule. If GoP had not taken the decision of Governor rule at that specific moment the whole momentum of Hazara strike would have gone in favor of TuQ (blanket support from Shi'ite community would have meant a real million march). Interestingly an Irani minister just days ago said that western hands were targeting Shi'ites in Pakistan when earlier they have always been accusing Pakistani groups and Wahabis (U-Turn is interesting considering that anti-shia activities reached their peak in these last weeks)

3 - TuQ reaches Islamabad via GT road and a crowd of about 15 to 20 thousand, no threat from TTP/ LuJ. Surprising as Ahsan (something) makes it a point to comment on every development in Pk and TuQ is ideologically opposite to what TTP stands for.

4 - Geo has started on its Jeem ads in favor of democracy (hate the driver not the bus etc) but Kamran Khan was saying TuQ stand has been 'Ilhami' that he said Govt was over and today CJ has asked NAB to arrest PM. Now don't tell Geo is pro-establishment as Geo has been in instrumental in Aman ke Asha and music exchange programs. Now this 'Ilhami' talk is just the right tonic for Pakistani public.

5 - Why was GoP unaware of court date today? Why didn't they take it in consideration. GoP could have easily avoided it by not coming (new date would have been atleast after a week and GoP had perfect excuse, security situation just outside the courts.

6 - Pro-establishment elements are extremely happy. So much so that role of establishment can not be completely discounted. (Sheikh Rashid, Musharaf, MQM)

7 - With America going out in 2014, TuQ might provide a short term solution in shape of caretaker Govt which can easily go on for 2 - 3 years.

8 - Zardari loses nothing if his Govt is terminated, he has completed his term (- one month). Even if PM is jailed he will still use the situation for his benefit (just like he used Yousaf Raza Gillani).

9 - TuQ has been changing his stance minute after minute. Sincerity or public welfare is out of question. TuQ could never have managed this without some help from baboos inside and outside Pakistan.

10 - Indian interference at LOC which again comes just at the right time (their threats of NON ARMY retaliation). Pressurizing the Govt or Army?



Long march took a lot of effort and $$, too many things happening which can not be termed coincidence. So there has to be a goal in mind, which may be:

A - A long term caretaker Govt (2 -3 years) which will promise Accountability, institution building with TuQ as PM. Depending on the role played extension for Kayani and CJ. This caretaker setup may also ensure safe exit of American from Afghanistan. This setup may also ensure pipelines from Iran (or completely block it). Interestingly TuQ has been all praise for Arab countries (KSA and UAE)

B - Oust PPPP govt, rig elections and bring favorites to power. This equation has some problems, we don't know if CJ is on it and public may not take rigged elections sitting down.

C - Free and fair elections without Zaradri as PM. Hardworking patriotic people will forma govt and Nishat e Sania will start in Pakistan. Problem is, I don't believe in this BS and one can't trust TuQ.



Lets take a look from political parties PoV:

PPPP - Can be using TuQ for martyrdom (point 1, 8,9). Can be a victim but not in the long run, elections without PPPP will not be considered free and fair. Even if Zaradri is blocked his son will come forward.

PMLN: PMLN is thinking all forces are combined against them (their phobia has some merit). PMLN and TuQ have a long history of fueds so in this case I don;t think PMLN can be using TuQ. Again PMLN has nothing to lose any elections without them will not be free and fair. Their main problem with be caretaker setup which may go on for years. If CJ is on with TuQ PMLN can be rendered useless.

PTI: One party which has taken a real beating (even more then PPPP) has been PTI (its not in news anymore). TuQ robbed them of change mantra and benefited immensely from animosity against rulers (which was built by PTI). TuQ can't be pro PTI he has done too great a damage. Even if elections are on time and free/ fair PTI will still be negatively influenced by TuQ. PTI is trying to keep itself relevant in these circumstances. Real problem for PTI is that things are out of their hands and TuQ has all the initiative. If PTI does not help TuQ it becomes irrelevant and TuQ enjoys spotlight on their expense. If PTI helps TuQ it will be joining as a junior pary at this stage and no matter what it will damage PTI's democratic image (VERY important, party elections and all were all for one purpose democratic image - secondly PTI wants to be a national level political party, TuQ has no such goals - Thirdly PTI wanted to be the third option after PPP and PMLN this will be a problem if PTI joins TuQ or not)

You take on this development?



pakistan-long-march.jpg
 
C

Charsi

Voter (50+ posts)
Re: TuQ's Long March and Political Outcomes

Sedqal, I don't know whether you got a chance to read this piece in dawn newspaper;


QADRI is on his way to Islamabad and the conspiracy theorists are in overdrive.

With facts scarcer than ever, theres even a theory that he may not arrive in Islamabad tomorrow. The fundamental uncertainty of politics here means anything is possible.

Just how possible? Lets recap, in no particular order of believability or widespread-ness, the conspiracy theories about who put Qadri up to this long march business.

Theory No 1: Zardari. The president wants to be re-elected as president. The electoral college the provincial assemblies and parliament is configured such at present that if the assemblies lives were somehow to be extended till the expiration of Zardaris term in September, hed be guaranteed re-election.

A general election could substantially change the presidential-election math, though. But how to postpone the general election, when the PML-N is waiting in the wings and the PTI is determined to try its luck?
The Qadri wildcard. Long-marching, slogan-chanting, game-changing Qadri appears out of nowhere and threatens political chaos giving Zardari that elusive excuse to extend the life of parliament by means of some as-yet-unclear constitutional mechanism.

Theory No 2: MQM. The party of urban Sindh is obsessed with protecting its base. But nestled as its base is in greater interior Sindh, the MQM has to use every trick in the book and then some to get its way.
Tantrums, blackmail, threats, the MQM will do whatever it takes to ensure Karachi, and Hyderabad, remains under its control.

Strip away the theatrics from Altafs Thursday speech and youre left with the mention of local government elections and the Sindh governorship. Assume, and this is quite a safe assumption, there are more demands that will never be heard of in public.
Demands that the MQM wants met, but how to get its senior coalition partner in Sindh and the centre, the PPP, to accede to those demands?

Enter Qadri. With street power at his command and a message that is in lock-step with the army-led establishments, Qadris arrival was meant to create a threatening uncertainty an uncertainty about the establishments real intentions; an uncertainty that was supercharged when the MQM climbed on the Qadri bandwagon.

Give us what we want, the MQM appeared to be saying to the PPP, or well help your enemies take you down. A credible threat because the MQM would not exactly struggle to find a place, or protect its interests, in the new dispensation.
Theory No 3: Americans/Brits. Disillusioned by the incompetence and drift of the last five years, worried that the next election will produce another hung parliament and weak government, desperate to keep Pakistan stable as the Afghan adventure winds down do they need more of an incentive to try and shape politics here again?

Qadris international network, his moderate, Barelvi leanings, his diehard followers inside Pakistan, all of that makes him just the guy to jolt the political system, create the space for the democratic project to be paused and hand over the reins to a team of competents to guide the country out of the mess it is in.

All of it backstopped by the army, just when its cooperation in Afghanistan over the next couple of years is needed most. Better for the Americans to satisfy the man who can deliver here, Gen K, than to back the civilians who control little.

Theory No 4: Kayani. The power-grab theory by a power-hungry Gen K is straightforward enough. But theres also a more exotic potential motive attributed to the general with a taste for the convoluted.
The Americans know Gen K will ultimately stand in their way, so theyd liked to see the back of him come November. A craven and pliant civilian government would help the Americans insert an ambitious but malleable successor in Gen Ks place.
That successor would then help the Americans achieve their dream of institutionally reshaping the army to better suit American interests in Pakistan and the region.

Ergo, to prevent the Americans from destroying the army from within, Gen K has activated Qadri. Once the democratic process is on hold, Gen K can continue beyond 2013 and protect the institutional integrity and independence of the army.
These wacky and weird theories have nothing in common, as befits most sets of conspiracy theories.

They do, though, hint at an underlying reality, a reality that is vexing and can appear unwelcome because it is chaotic. But within that reality may lie the seeds of systemic resilience and durability.

How is it possible for the same event Qadris long march to get the elections postponed to produce such wildly differing theories to cui bono, who benefits?

If the Zardari-wants-to-get-re-elected-by-the-present-assemblies theory is right, then that means he has enough power to exert his will over all the other players in the game.

If the Kayani-wants-to-prolong-his-reign-for-whatever-reason theory is correct, then that means he has enough power to exert his will over all the other players in the game.

Both cant simultaneously be correct, for Kayani and Zardari are both central players in the power game on the national stage.

Theres a simpler explanation and it also explains the existence of the contradictory conspiracy theories: no player has the ability to impose their will on all the other players. Nobody can get all that they want in the battle for control.

Not Kayani. Not Zardari. Not Qadri. Not Sharif. Not CJ Iftikhar. Not the Americans. No one.

Its not elegant or easy to grasp, like a stalemate in a game of chess which explains the frustration of everyone, including a bemused public.

But this messy, noisy, ugly-looking draw that events and moves by the various players have helped engineer has one distinct advantage: it favours continuity.

Shake it, rattle it, batter it, and yet it survives allowing the country to inch closer to one thing its never had: a civilian-led transition.

The old order may resent it, the public today may not appreciate it, but give the unwanted its due: lets hail the perfect mess.
 
Last edited:
S

Sedqal

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Re: TuQ's Long March and Political Outcomes

Charsi said:
Sedqal, I don't know whether you got a chance to read this piece in dawn newspaper;


QADRI is on his way to Islamabad and the conspiracy theorists are in overdrive.
With facts scarcer than ever, there’s even a theory that he may not arrive in Islamabad tomorrow. The fundamental uncertainty of politics here means anything is possible.
Just how possible? Let’s recap, in no particular order of believability or widespread-ness, the conspiracy theories about who put Qadri up to this long march business.
Theory No 1: Zardari. The president wants to be re-elected as president. The electoral college — the provincial assemblies and parliament — is configured such at present that if the assemblies’ lives were somehow to be extended till the expiration of Zardari’s term in September, he’d be guaranteed re-election.
A general election could substantially change the presidential-election math, though. But how to postpone the general election, when the PML-N is waiting in the wings and the PTI is determined to try its luck?
The Qadri wildcard. Long-marching, slogan-chanting, game-changing Qadri appears out of nowhere and threatens political chaos — giving Zardari that elusive excuse to extend the life of parliament by means of some as-yet-unclear constitutional mechanism.
Theory No 2: MQM. The party of urban Sindh is obsessed with protecting its base. But nestled as its base is in greater — interior — Sindh, the MQM has to use every trick in the book and then some to get its way.
Tantrums, blackmail, threats, the MQM will do whatever it takes to ensure Karachi, and Hyderabad, remains under its control.
Strip away the theatrics from Altaf’s Thursday speech and you’re left with the mention of local government elections and the Sindh governorship. Assume, and this is quite a safe assumption, there are more demands that will never be heard of in public.
Demands that the MQM wants met, but how to get its senior coalition partner in Sindh and the centre, the PPP, to accede to those demands?
Enter Qadri. With street power at his command and a message that is in lock-step with the army-led establishment’s, Qadri’s arrival was meant to create a threatening uncertainty — an uncertainty about the establishment’s real intentions; an uncertainty that was supercharged when the MQM climbed on the Qadri bandwagon.
Give us what we want, the MQM appeared to be saying to the PPP, or we’ll help your enemies take you down. A credible threat because the MQM would not exactly struggle to find a place, or protect its interests, in the new dispensation.
Theory No 3: Americans/Brits. Disillusioned by the incompetence and drift of the last five years, worried that the next election will produce another hung parliament and weak government, desperate to keep Pakistan stable as the Afghan adventure winds down — do they need more of an incentive to try and shape politics here again?
Qadri’s international network, his ‘moderate’, Barelvi leanings, his diehard followers inside Pakistan, all of that makes him just the guy to jolt the political system, create the space for the democratic project to be paused and hand over the reins to a team of competents to guide the country out of the mess it is in.
All of it backstopped by the army, just when its cooperation in Afghanistan over the next couple of years is needed most. Better for the Americans to satisfy the man who can deliver here, Gen K, than to back the civilians who control little.
Theory No 4: Kayani. The power-grab theory by a power-hungry Gen K is straightforward enough. But there’s also a more exotic potential motive attributed to the general with a taste for the convoluted.
The Americans know Gen K will ultimately stand in their way, so they’d liked to see the back of him come November. A craven and pliant civilian government would help the Americans insert an ambitious but malleable successor in Gen K’s place.
That successor would then help the Americans achieve their dream of institutionally reshaping the army to better suit American interests in Pakistan and the region.
Ergo, to prevent the Americans from destroying the army from within, Gen K has activated Qadri. Once the democratic process is on hold, Gen K can continue beyond 2013 and protect the institutional integrity and independence of the army.
These wacky and weird theories have nothing in common, as befits most sets of conspiracy theories.
They do, though, hint at an underlying reality, a reality that is vexing and can appear unwelcome because it is chaotic. But within that reality may lie the seeds of systemic resilience and durability.
How is it possible for the same event — Qadri’s long march to get the elections postponed — to produce such wildly differing theories to cui bono, who benefits?
If the Zardari-wants-to-get-re-elected-by-the-present-assemblies theory is right, then that means he has enough power to exert his will over all the other players in the game.
If the Kayani-wants-to-prolong-his-reign-for-whatever-reason theory is correct, then that means he has enough power to exert his will over all the other players in the game.
Both can’t simultaneously be correct, for Kayani and Zardari are both central players in the power game on the national stage.
There’s a simpler explanation — and it also explains the existence of the contradictory conspiracy theories: no player has the ability to impose their will on all the other players. Nobody can get all that they want in the battle for control.
Not Kayani. Not Zardari. Not Qadri. Not Sharif. Not CJ Iftikhar. Not the Americans. No one.
It’s not elegant or easy to grasp, like a stalemate in a game of chess — which explains the frustration of everyone, including a bemused public.
But this messy, noisy, ugly-looking draw that events and moves by the various players have helped engineer has one distinct advantage: it favours continuity.
Shake it, rattle it, batter it, and yet it survives — allowing the country to inch closer to one thing it’s never had: a civilian-led transition.
The old order may resent it, the public today may not appreciate it, but give the unwanted its due: let’s hail the perfect mess.
Click to expand...

I read it. But look at new scenario. CJ's action + the fact that TuQ is still being facilitated by the govt which he wants to overthrow.
 
Time Being

Time Being

MPA (400+ posts)
Re: TuQ's Long March and Political Outcomes

Some very interesting developments and the timing of Shia killings, timing of decision to arrest Raja rental, double U-turn of MQM, rumors of Mush returning..circulating in Isb lots of things are STRANGE.

Padri coming all the way from canada and smoothly sailing into the capital with his flock of 50k employees and students.. is itself a reason big enough to raise eye brows.

I am all against IK but one thing which i admit about his so called inquilab is that.. it is HOME-GROWN (beshak with the support of some elements of establishment)

What i don't understand is.. who imported this Inquilab of Padri into Pakistan? And why does he have so many people following him ?

what am i missing here.. please enlighten me.


What will be the end result of all this?
 
Z

zhohaq

Minister (2k+ posts)
Re: TuQ's Long March and Political Outcomes

CJ action has been grossly misrepresented by media. Half a dozen lawyer on twitter say its routine and will not result in Mr PM loosing his job. Its just non binding intructions for NAB to proceed with challan. Fasih Bukhari still call the shots.

PTI statement is anti TUQ essentially. Only thing new is they want Election dates announced now and progress on Caretaker PM end. The new thing they have asked is getting rid of Zardari. JI is also calling for an election date to be announced, but nothing on the Zardari front.

TUQ is the real wild card. He has caught many by surprise. Not sure what he is upto.
Still things are moving fast and PPP and PML N are not.
If the Sitin goes on the danger of intervention will go up.
Better to just announce a date of election and start process of care taker set-up.

BAqEO1YCYAA4Uzs.jpg:large
 
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M

mrk123

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Re: TuQ's Long March and Political Outcomes

zhohaq said:
CJ action has been grossly misrepresented by media. Half a dozen lawyer on twitter say its routine and will not result in Mr PM loosing his job. Its just non binding intructions for NAB to proceed with challan. Fasih Bukhari still call the shots.

PTI statement is anti TUQ essentially. Only thing new is they want Election dates announced now and progress on Caretaker PM end. The new thing they have asked is getting rid of Zardari. JI is also calling for an election date to be announced, but nothing on the Zardari front.

TUQ is the real wild card. He has caught many by surprise. Not sure what he is upto.
Still things are moving fast and PPP and PML N are not.
If the Sitin goes on the danger of intervention will go up.
Better to just anniunce a date of election and start process of care taker setup.
Click to expand...

I agree with your most important assessment that its still unclear what TuQ's real agenda is. With every passing minute he is moving the goal post.

Other than that I think people who are making it a time that Pakistan has never seen before have not been around or have not been students of history - even the most recent history.

The only thing I can think of is that IF there are foreign powers behind TuQ they have come up with new game plan. They have moved away from their usual modus operandi which involved grooming generals in Pak army who would take over when the time is right. I am not sure if the military establishment doesn't want to do the bidding and the west doesn't have any horses in the military establishment and using an imported horse to pull the carriage and do their bidding. I think that I have not heard TuQ praise SA or UAE but if he did then its very telling.

Only God knows whats behind all of this brouhaha.
 
VoteME

VoteME

Minister (2k+ posts)
Re: TuQ's Long March and Political Outcomes

JeffKing said:
Some very interesting developments and the timing of Shia killings, timing of decision to arrest Raja rental, double U-turn of MQM, rumors of Mush returning..circulating in Isb lots of things are STRANGE.

Padri coming all the way from canada and smoothly sailing into the capital with his flock of 50k employees and students.. is itself a reason big enough to raise eye brows.

I am all against IK but one thing which i admit about his so called inquilab is that.. it is HOME-GROWN (beshak with the support of some elements of establishment)

What i don't understand is.. who imported this Inquilab of Padri into Pakistan? And why does he have so many people following him ?

what am i missing here.. please enlighten me.


What will be the end result of all this?
Click to expand...

Bhai tum ne tableeghi jamat ka ijtemah nai dekha? Ye loog madressay se uthaiye hvay hain inhain chahey 1 week bhi sarak pe soonay ko kaho so lein gay. Qadri has blind followers who lick his feet, he plays with religion and that makes him dangerous. He is a good actor and a speaker that makes him more dangerous than Maulana diesel. Overall I would say if this Long March would have been initiated by IK, it would have sailed smoothly. But this Qadri, I still don't get his real motives. My advise stay alert and stay away from him.:)
 
A

Altaf Lutfi

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Re: TuQ's Long March and Political Outcomes

hard work sedqal ! Unfortunately I do not agree with your conclusions. I think you have shaped the container before pouring the facts in but like everybody else here, it is your right and your opinion is respected. It is really interesting to find how many ways a puzzle can work.
 
S

Sedqal

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Re: TuQ's Long March and Political Outcomes

Altaf Lutfi said:
hard work sedqal ! Unfortunately I do not agree with your conclusions. I think you have shaped the container before pouring the facts in but like everybody else here, it is your right and your opinion is respected. It is really interesting to find how many ways a puzzle can work.
Click to expand...

Altaf its just supposed to be a pool of different facts and opinions. You can add your thoughts to this.
 
S

Sedqal

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Re: TuQ's Long March and Political Outcomes

zhohaq said:
CJ action has been grossly misrepresented by media. Half a dozen lawyer on twitter say its routine and will not result in Mr PM loosing his job. Its just non binding intructions for NAB to proceed with challan. Fasih Bukhari still call the shots.

PTI statement is anti TUQ essentially. Only thing new is they want Election dates announced now and progress on Caretaker PM end. The new thing they have asked is getting rid of Zardari. JI is also calling for an election date to be announced, but nothing on the Zardari front.

TUQ is the real wild card. He has caught many by surprise. Not sure what he is upto.
Still things are moving fast and PPP and PML N are not.
If the Sitin goes on the danger of intervention will go up.
Better to just announce a date of election and start process of care taker set-up.

BAqEO1YCYAA4Uzs.jpg:large
Click to expand...

PTI 7 points seem to be knee jerk reaction. Focus should be on elections and caretake Govt not on Zardari and Rental case. TuQ is far sharper a cookie then Ik.
 
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