"Export of August 2021 fall short and only USD 2.257 billion"Abdul Razak

[arifkarim]

The more excessive devaluation happens the more export will decrease.

No. Who told you that? Patwari Ishaq Dollar? Devaluation makes your country's products cheaper in international markets hence exports increase with devaluation.

 

[arifkarim]

Our fuel adjustment will increase for export industry, cost of import for export will increase, prices of raw materials are high still we cannot convert this into our own benefits, and of course gas prices and energy prices will increase ,which will increase the price of export.

Cost for raw materials will increase but so will competitiveness of Pakistani products in international markets.

 

[arifkarim]

The ratio of CAD will increase when more excessive devaluation happens because the industry will start dumping PKR and will be going dollars exchange as they it is a safe bet.

You need dollars for imports not production or exports. As dollar goes up, imports gets expensive but exports goes up too as Pakistani products are now cheaper in international markets

 

[arifkarim]

I told you before hand that August number will worse than July right? You just wait for August import number, which will higher than July even after lower Petrol prices.

September number imports will be more higher than August and more lower exports than August. You can save or copy this comments.

It doesn't work that way. Total Exports (export capacity) are still going up regardless of their conversion to USD.

 

[arifkarim]

It is better to announce to default and to avoid Market base exchange, which has taken everything from Pakistan.

Default will cause hyper inflation, that is the worst outcome Khotay

 

[arifkarim]

The countries like Pakistan and with open floating rates ,especially when they don't have a reliable source of exports will get hit on their currency and eventually high inflation rates for the people of the country when they are importing even food items from outside.

So your solution is to fix exchange rate, drain forex reserves and go to IMF every 5 years after CAD crisis? Khotay Patwari

 

[arifkarim]

He said it best CAD will be getting worse and worse with more devaluation because did not change even 1 bit since 3 years and still on import based.


I say again Please announce default we can rid of PTI finance team otherwise late September default announcement will have major negative impact.

Credit boom increases demand, local suppliers can't meet it so import boom starts as well. Solution is not fixed exchange rate for this problem as it will worsen the demand pull imports. Rather market based exchange rate which makes imports so expensive that drain on forex doesn't get into crisis mode

 

[arifkarim]

I say again Please announce default we can rid of PTI finance team otherwise late September default announcement will have major negative impact.

Khotay announcing default is the worst case scenario. It will cause hyper inflation.

 

[Doom1111]

Credit boom increases demand, local suppliers can't meet it so import boom starts as well. Solution is not fixed exchange rate for this problem as it will worsen the demand pull imports. Rather market based exchange rate which makes imports so expensive that drain on forex doesn't get into crisis mode

Pakistan reserve already -. If announce default we will get 5 years to avoid paying any debt. However, to declear default it has to be announced by PM it self.

 

[Siberite]

So your solution is to fix exchange rate, drain forex reserves and go to IMF every 5 years after CAD crisis? Khotay Patwari

Obviously, the dip stick is way down to your bottom and it is hurting you. Leaving the exchange rate on a mercy of open market when you don't have any resource to stand on, is a known recipe for disaster.It is not something which was chosen as will and has been the cornerstone of our fiscal policy for decades. If you like to change it, which may be a good idea for those economies which are quite strong and do not depend on foreign funding for their foreign reserves,then you need to painstacken work to build you economy to withstand sudden unexpected moves in international market.otherwise, you would be as your are now like chicken with their heads cut off.The switching of the policies without thinking and planning is like putting the cart before the horse.And Naswaris like you can only spray where ever you sit.

 

[Doom1111]

Khotay announcing default is the worst case scenario. It will cause hyper inflation.

Already Hyper inflation coming. One time pain better slow death. At least we have the reserve to use not a show piece.

 

[Doom1111]

Obviously, the dip stick is way down to your bottom and it is hurting you. Leaving the exchange rate on a mercy of open market when you don't have any resource to stand on, is a known recipe for disaster.It is not something which was chosen as will and has been the cornerstone of our fiscal policy for decades. If you like to change it, which may be a good idea for those economies which are quite strong and do not depend on foreign funding for their foreign reserves,then you need to painstacken work to build you economy to withstand sudden unexpected moves in international market.otherwise, you would be as your are now like chicken with their heads cut off.The switching of the policies without thinking and planning is like putting the cart before the horse.And Naswaris like you can only spray where ever you sit.

Ethiopia defaulted due market base currency. When they announced default all the market base currency pain was gone and they are making good efforts.

 

[Doom1111]

CAD is number is not only due to Import and i say again July FDI was 89 million, August FDI will worse this than this. No means no investor ever likes a currency, which is only has devaluation. Investor only runs aways from these currency.


400 million dollar was taken in July from Investor. Let see August number, which will be bigger than this.

 

[arifkarim]

Pakistan reserve already -. If announce default we will get 5 years to avoid paying any debt. However, to declear default it has to be announced by PM it self.

Pakistan has never experienced hyper inflation that follows after default. Nobody will take that risk.

 

[arifkarim]

Obviously, the dip stick is way down to your bottom and it is hurting you. Leaving the exchange rate on a mercy of open market when you don't have any resource to stand on, is a known recipe for disaster.It is not something which was chosen as will and has been the cornerstone of our fiscal policy for decades. If you like to change it, which may be a good idea for those economies which are quite strong and do not depend on foreign funding for their foreign reserves,then you need to painstacken work to build you economy to withstand sudden unexpected moves in international market.otherwise, you would be as your are now like chicken with their heads cut off.The switching of the policies without thinking and planning is like putting the cart before the horse.And Naswaris like you can only spray where ever you sit.

Defending a fixed exchange rate doesn't work in developed economies as well. UK lost 3 billion pounds defending a fixed exchange rate in a single day Khotay Patwari

Black Wednesday - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Doom1111]

Pakistan has never experienced hyper inflation that follows after default. Nobody will take that risk.

It will be semi default not full default. Full default means civil war and SBP non functional, which is why i say before SBP becomes non functional at the end of September and becomes another debt like PIA, we should default like Brazil.

 

[arifkarim]

Already Hyper inflation coming. One time pain better slow death. At least we have the reserve to use not a show piece.

Khotay reserves are not there to defend the currency at a fixed exchange rate. Your Khotay leader Ishaq Dollar tried that 4 years. It didn't work idiot

 

[Doom1111]

Khotay reserves are not there to defend the currency at a fixed exchange rate. Your Khotay leader Ishaq Dollar tried that 4 years. It didn't work idiot

Shukat Aziz, Ayub Khan did and see we were best Asian countries.

 

[arifkarim]

Shukat Aziz, Ayub Khan did and see we were best Asian countries.

It's not sustainable in the long run. It works temporarily until you have enough forex reserves. Once reserves are gone, back to IMF. Fixed exchange rate caused last 3 CAD and forex crisis

 

[Doom1111]

It's not sustainable in the long run. It works temporarily until you have enough forex reserves. Once reserves are gone, back to IMF. Fixed exchange rate caused last 3 CAD and forex crisis

Stable currency always bring industry like Ayub and Musharf did. PPP came apply semi market base all industries vanish and even international banks gone. Dar failed because he did not market Pakistan like Shuakat Aziz and Ayub did and they best investor and forigen relationship.


You know i say everything on facts i do not Joke or post humor.

Shuakat Tarin numbers are all fake like he said "August export will more than July and CAD will be less than July ,which is otherwise now he said in Shahbaz Khanzada show". Also Poor Shahbaz Rana Tried to told him that we are not meeting one condition WB for 1.5 billion dollar which will get on 28th and he told him on June 15th and Shuakat Tarin replied "You know better or i know better? I am telling you that we will get 1.5 billion dollar from WB and we only got 400 million dollar from WB on June 28th."



Shuakat Tarin is 100% will lead Pakistan to default in late September when other crisis will emerge when IMF will not ready to listen to him. Firing FM causes more panic and IMF will put more strict condition like they with default countries. At that time will be treated by IMF like fully default country and we will wish we that we do not do this IMF program ,however, we will no choice.