Jan 6th 2011 |
Staring into the abyss
<H1 class=rubric>Salman Taseers murder deals a huge blow to liberal Pakistan </H1>
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THERE is a small space in which a liberal vision of Pakistan hangs on. It shrank a lot further with the murder on January 4th of a notable progressive politician and critic of religious extremism, Salman Taseer. Even before the assassination, the leading liberal-minded political party, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), which heads the government in Islamabad and counted Mr Taseer as an activist since the 1970s, was in deep trouble. On January 2nd the PPP lost its majority in parliament when the second-biggest party in the government coalition, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), walked out.
The PPP has been rocked by Mr Taseers murder, which brings back memories of the ghastly assassination by extremists of the partys leader, Benazir Bhutto, in 2007. Pakistans problems, including an economy in a tailspin and a raging Islamist insurgency, are unlikely to get the attention they need while the government struggles for survival.
Mr Taseer was the governor of Punjab, a largely ceremonial position in Pakistans most populous province, but a high-profile one for all that. He had run a lonely but fearless campaign against Pakistans pernicious blasphemy law and was gunned down in broad daylight in Islamabad by one of his own police guards. The smirking killer later said he acted because Mr Taseers call for the blasphemy law to be repealed made Mr Taseer himself a blasphemer. Mr Taseer had taken up the case of a poor Christian woman, Asia Bibi, whom a court last year condemned to death for blasphemy. Mr Taseer himself was always sure that extremists did not represent the majority opinion in Pakistan, but that their recourse to violence means that they control public discourse.
Pakistan lives under great intimidation, so it doesnt matter whether extremism is a majority opinion or minority, says Khaled Ahmed, an analyst. Moderates will never get up and speak when were treated like this. In 2009 a leading religious cleric who condemned suicide bombings was himself murdered by a suicide attacker. The same year the minister for religious affairs, also a moderate, was wounded in an assassination attempt. Other temperate voices have fled the country. The PPP dared not back Mr Taseers call for the blasphemy law to be overturned, nor even to back the laws reform.
The law, first introduced in colonial times but in the 1980s made punishable by death by the late dictator General Zia ul Haq, is wide open to abuse, with hearsay used to convict dozens of people each year. Accusers routinely fabricate stories of blasphemy to punish enemies for other grievances. The law is vague and applies only to insults to Islam. Minorities and Muslims alike are caught up in its tentacles. The alleged blasphemy may neither be stated in the charges nor repeated in court, since that would in itself be an act of blasphemy.
Mr Taseers killer, Mumtaz Qadri, may have acted alonean investigation may get to the root of it. Yet his cause has support in Pakistan. Lawyers outside the court showered him with rose petals. The murder follows a campaign of vilification by the clergy and sections of the press. A broad alliance of the clergy rushed out a statement lionising the assassin. No Muslim should attend the funeral or even try to pray for Salman Taseer, said Jamaate Ahle Sunnat Pakistan, which represents the large and moderate Barelvi sect of Islam.
Religious parties do not attract much support at election timethey polled less than 5% of votes in the last ballot, in 2008. However, Ijaz Gilani, head of Gallup Pakistan, argues that it would be a very serious miscalculation to judge societys religiosity by the showing of Islamist parties at election time. Pakistan has a first-past-the-post system, so people vote for one of the mainstream parties that have the best chance of coming to power. It means that both the PPP and, especially, the other main party, the Pakistan Muslim League (N), led by Nawaz Sharif, have a bank of religious-minded voters whom they must be careful not to offend.
Pakistans public culture is riddled with hardline views, from the school curriculum to the nightly political talk shows. Meanwhile, as Mr Taseer himself never failed to point out, the state gives succour to violent, extremist organisations. No serious attempt is made to rein in the interpretation of Islam promoted by the military establishment since the 1980s, which puts
jihad at the core. Repeated calls for the Punjab governor to be killed were made from mosque pulpits across Pakistan, yet such hate speech goes unpunished.
Now the PPP is desperately seeking an alternative coalition partner. In part, the MQM walked out in opposition to a planned hike in the oil price. Reforms promised under an IMF programme are now jeopardised.
The risk is that the divided opposition will get together to oust the government and force fresh elections. The opposition leader, Mr Sharif, holds the cards: any no-confidence motion in parliament would need his backing to succeed. Mr Sharif himself seems unsure whether to go for power. He fears this would play into the hands of the army, which historically has worked to undermine both politicians and democracy itself. So the government could limp on for months, with two years of its five-year term still to go.
As for the army, it appears unwilling to seize power itself, as it has repeatedly done in the past. With Pakistans myriad economic and political problems, and the urgent need to focus military resources on the Islamist insurgency, the prospect of power looks unappealing. The present situation suits the military. It controls security and foreign policy, its budget is protected and American military aid is flowing, whereas the government is blamed for all the countrys ills. It would be foolish to rule out a coup, but just now the generals seem hesitant to take responsibility for a place that has embraced Mr Taseers assassination with such relish.(
www.economist.com)
