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http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=205042
The psywar
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Dr Farrukh Saleem
On Oct 23, a suicide bomber attacked the aeronautical complex in Kamra. On Oct 22, gunmen shot-dead an army brigadier. On Oct 20, two suicide attackers bombed the International Islamic University, Islamabad. On Oct 16, a suicide bomber rocked the offices of the Special Investigation Unit (SIU) in Peshawar Cantonment. On Oct 15, a multi-man assault team attacked the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) building, the Manawan Police Training School and the Elite Police Academy, all in Lahore.
On Oct 5, a suicide bomber dressed in military fatigue blew himself inside the United Nations World Food Programme in Islamabad. On Oct 9, a suicide bomber attacked Khyber Bazaar in Peshawar. On Oct 10, at least nine militants in army uniforms stormed the nerve-centre of Pakistan's robust military machine, GHQ. On Oct 12, a suicide bomber attacked a military convoy in Shangla.
Kamran Bokhari, my friend and colleague, and Regional Director, Middle East & South Asia for Stratfor, a Texas-based private intelligence outfit, asserts that this is classic 'psychological warfare' or psywar. According to Kamran, "The militants lack the capacity to take on the military might of the Pakistan army and so they resort to psywar."
Over the past two weeks there have been a dozen major incidents of terrorism-related violence. To be certain, militants are no match for the 7th Infantry Division, Golden Arrow, Pakistan army's "oldest and most battle-hardened division", marching southwards from Razmak. Militants cannot take on the 9th Infantry Division -- closing in on Makeen -- in a conventional face-off.
From a purely strategic standpoint, all of these incidents put together mean next to nothing to the Pakistan army as none of this has been able to damage the core physical fighting capacity of the military. To be certain, these are all militant-designed tactical manoeuvres in a long drawn-out clash of nerves.
What message do the militants want to convey? One, that they are alive and kicking. Two, that South Waziristan is not the only troubled spot in Pakistan; Islamabad, Peshawar, Rawalpindi and Lahore are not beyond their reach either. Three, that Pakistan is in a state of civil war. Four, that the whole of Pakistan is unsafe to live. Five, they want Pakistan isolated from the rest of the world.
What do the militants really want? A Pakistan that lacks 'order and predictability'. They want an absolute "absence of government -- a state of lawlessness". The militants want to create an environment where normal state of governance cannot continue. Kamran is convinced that there is a "method to their madness" and that the militants want to "overwhelm the state of Pakistan" and bring her down to her knees through psychological warfare -- economically, socially and politically.
Psychological terrorist warfare can be defined as the "planned use of violence having the primary purpose of influencing the opinions, emotions, attitudes and behaviour" in order to mould the state from taking action against terrorists. What that means is that terrorists cannot face the state of Pakistan in a symmetrical conflict and thus the use of terrorist violence to "influence the opinions, emotions, attitudes and behaviour" of Pakistanis in order to establish terrorist diktat over the state and society of Pakistan; a 'harsh, unilaterally imposed' diktat over the whole of Pakistan.
To be sure, the militants are serious. Between 2003 and 2009, fatalities in terrorist violence stand at 22,110 of which 7,004 were civilians, 2,637 were security force personnel. What should the state and society do? Society should not fall into the terrorist trap and the state must beef up its intelligence. Remember, it's not symmetric, it's war of intelligence. Society should not let incidents of terrorist violence influence its opinions, emotions, attitudes and behaviour in favour of the terrorists.
The writer is the executive director of the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). Email: [email protected]
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=205042
The psywar
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Dr Farrukh Saleem
On Oct 23, a suicide bomber attacked the aeronautical complex in Kamra. On Oct 22, gunmen shot-dead an army brigadier. On Oct 20, two suicide attackers bombed the International Islamic University, Islamabad. On Oct 16, a suicide bomber rocked the offices of the Special Investigation Unit (SIU) in Peshawar Cantonment. On Oct 15, a multi-man assault team attacked the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) building, the Manawan Police Training School and the Elite Police Academy, all in Lahore.
On Oct 5, a suicide bomber dressed in military fatigue blew himself inside the United Nations World Food Programme in Islamabad. On Oct 9, a suicide bomber attacked Khyber Bazaar in Peshawar. On Oct 10, at least nine militants in army uniforms stormed the nerve-centre of Pakistan's robust military machine, GHQ. On Oct 12, a suicide bomber attacked a military convoy in Shangla.
Kamran Bokhari, my friend and colleague, and Regional Director, Middle East & South Asia for Stratfor, a Texas-based private intelligence outfit, asserts that this is classic 'psychological warfare' or psywar. According to Kamran, "The militants lack the capacity to take on the military might of the Pakistan army and so they resort to psywar."
Over the past two weeks there have been a dozen major incidents of terrorism-related violence. To be certain, militants are no match for the 7th Infantry Division, Golden Arrow, Pakistan army's "oldest and most battle-hardened division", marching southwards from Razmak. Militants cannot take on the 9th Infantry Division -- closing in on Makeen -- in a conventional face-off.
From a purely strategic standpoint, all of these incidents put together mean next to nothing to the Pakistan army as none of this has been able to damage the core physical fighting capacity of the military. To be certain, these are all militant-designed tactical manoeuvres in a long drawn-out clash of nerves.
What message do the militants want to convey? One, that they are alive and kicking. Two, that South Waziristan is not the only troubled spot in Pakistan; Islamabad, Peshawar, Rawalpindi and Lahore are not beyond their reach either. Three, that Pakistan is in a state of civil war. Four, that the whole of Pakistan is unsafe to live. Five, they want Pakistan isolated from the rest of the world.
What do the militants really want? A Pakistan that lacks 'order and predictability'. They want an absolute "absence of government -- a state of lawlessness". The militants want to create an environment where normal state of governance cannot continue. Kamran is convinced that there is a "method to their madness" and that the militants want to "overwhelm the state of Pakistan" and bring her down to her knees through psychological warfare -- economically, socially and politically.
Psychological terrorist warfare can be defined as the "planned use of violence having the primary purpose of influencing the opinions, emotions, attitudes and behaviour" in order to mould the state from taking action against terrorists. What that means is that terrorists cannot face the state of Pakistan in a symmetrical conflict and thus the use of terrorist violence to "influence the opinions, emotions, attitudes and behaviour" of Pakistanis in order to establish terrorist diktat over the state and society of Pakistan; a 'harsh, unilaterally imposed' diktat over the whole of Pakistan.
To be sure, the militants are serious. Between 2003 and 2009, fatalities in terrorist violence stand at 22,110 of which 7,004 were civilians, 2,637 were security force personnel. What should the state and society do? Society should not fall into the terrorist trap and the state must beef up its intelligence. Remember, it's not symmetric, it's war of intelligence. Society should not let incidents of terrorist violence influence its opinions, emotions, attitudes and behaviour in favour of the terrorists.
The writer is the executive director of the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). Email: [email protected]
