Re: how many seats PTI will WIN in next election?
I guess PTI will manage some seats may be, but counting all together not more than 10-15 seats including both provincial and national assemblies. These seats will also be I guess the candidates seats and not because of the party itself. But I guess it is still good to compete and give people some more options. People who say they will sweep it, I do not believe because I guess they do not even have enough candidates to contest from everywhere. If they give tickets to unknowns, who are not known in their constituency, then I do no think they can even get 10 seats in elections. When we consider it realistically, environment in Pakistan is different, there is hardly any idealogical vote, except a few religious groups, and if your candidate is someone who has never been in the villages and backward areas, then they wont even know you to vote you. Secondly, no matter what we say, the mentality of the nation is more like a slave mentality and with short term memory, they are not educated enough to be having some far-sight, thats why there are tricks to win elections in Pakistan. People need someone who has everything in control in the constituency and who can boss around in the area. If you try to teach them some sort of philosophy then wont understand it because they do not have the capacity for that. Now what do I suggest for PTI, I suggest them to find some really strong candidates even from other parties and try to break them from their mother parties in order to bag a few seats. Secondly, it has been a trend that from FATA, there are always independents who win the elections, may be IK can lure them into his party. Third and most important thing to do is to do some research and see which constituencies are with more urban polling stations, with more educated people and with more youth. After research, they can only target these constituencies and make a real big campaign in only these few constituencies. This along with a little bit help from agencies, I guess IK can bag some 20-30 seats and at least his party can kick start its career.
Talking about MQM, I guess they will get their traditional seats in any case, and a few more may be from northern areas and a couple of provincial seats in south-Punjab. The parties are still small, and their structure is still under construction, so they need to bre realistic and try to at least have their say in parliament, IK can learn something from MQM who are in the Parliament and can make them count for certain national issues.
As far JI is concerned, I am not sure if they can get more than what they traditionally get,they are a good and well organised party but the thing is that they are a bit too sticky with the same old concepts, they need to bring moderate people ahead who talk of moderate Islam, otherwise they will get their traditional vote from NWFP, Balochistan, Karachi and few parts of central Punjab as always. Their best chance is to coil up with PMLN and make their say in government.
My forecast is that in coming elections, it will be again a split mandate, but PPP and PMLQ performing better as compared to last elections because of their seat adjustment. Lets see what happens.
both in national and provisonal all togther
giv a min & max LIMIT like this
10 - 40