Read a very good factual analysis on social media, so thought to share with this forum as well (it isn't mine but very pinpointed):
lets see what options modi has
1. stays calm and issues a statement of condemnation
2. tries to isolate pak internationally and raise voice in UN
3. increases terrorism in kashmir
4. carries out an actual surgical strike in pak
5. does a drama surgical strike jut like last time.
6 . goes for an all out war.
7. carries out terrorist activities in pak
lets analyze. option 1 and he will lose the elections. tried option 2 before and failed . pak is even getting stronger and his friends in pak are in jails and facing cases. option 3 yes he can do that but will increase human rights organizations protests internationally. option 4 this is what he really needs to win elections but consequences can be very dangerous. option 5. very much possible. option 6 less likely but can become a reality if he exercises option 4. option 7 yes he will try his best. so most likely options are options 5,7,3 and 4 but now only option 4 can win him next elections so he may give a go ahead to a real surgical strike but the two things that go against it is that there is no zardari or nawaz in govt in pak. so he can miscalculate pak's response.