If PTI has to choose; will it prefer PMLN or PPP?

[Argonaut]

If PMLN makes an alliance with PPP, it will certainly be great for PTI as it will vastly erode the support base of PMLN. But why expect the opponents to be idiots who'll do exactly as we want them to do? After PTI called it friendly opposition, PMLN has spent the best part of last two years trying to show that it is the real opponent of PPP. This is how it has managed to reclaim some of supporters that it had lost to PTI. It has no reason to commit a political suicide by siding with PPP again.

Furthermore, if PMLN manages to form provincial government in Punjab but does not have a clear majority in the center, it will prefer that nobody is able to make federal government and the national assembly is dissolved. In that case, the new elections will be held for national assembly only with PMLN ruling in Punjab. PMLN will certainly like that to happen as it is likely to gain more seats in such scenario.

 

[Abdulmaalik]

If PMLN makes an alliance with PPP, it will certainly be great for PTI as it will vastly erode the support base of PMLN. But why expect the opponents to be idiots who'll do exactly as we want them to do? After PTI called it friendly opposition, PMLN has spent the best part of last two years trying to show that it is the real opponent of PPP. This is how it has managed to reclaim some of supporters that it had lost to PTI. It has no reason to commit a political suicide by siding with PPP again.


Furthermore, if PMLN manages to form provincial government in Punjab but does not have a clear majority in the center, it will prefer that nobody is able to make federal government and the national assembly is dissolved. In that case, the new elections will be held for national assembly only with PMLN ruling in Punjab. PMLN will certainly like that to happen as it is likely to gain more seats in such scenario.

First, it is not two years that PMLN is opposing PPP to some extent.Rather, it is less than 1.5 years.Second, People of Pakistan are not so stupid.We know that even in the last 17 months, when PMLN showed some opposition, everytime both main parties feared threat to their interests, they got united.Let me give you three examples.

1.During the Senate elections of Feb-March 2012, both parties supported each other.This has been pointed out by many political analysts.
2.After they passed 20th amendment, they appointed the four provincial election commissioners though classic MUK-MUKA.It was not revealed at that time but later on when Qadri told the whole nation, this matter became clear.

3.Very recently, Election commission added few clauses in the nomination papers which can cause problems for electables of both parties and both parties took ECP to task in media and Assembly.

Now, I shed some light on how PMLN was able to regain some of its lost ground.

The lost ground was not regained by the opposition of PPP but due to some other factors.These are:

1.The 24/7 propaganda machine of PMLN against PTI.This machine was on rest before Oct 30, 2011.This machine, aided by the weak media performance of PTI, helped PMLN tremendously.
2.The worst governance of PPP in the center, Sindh and Balochistan which helped PMLN's slightly better govt of Punjab look like a real good one.This, coupled with the ever present media projection of PMLN helped it a lot.
3.PMLN's opening of all doors and breaking of all self-imposed principles made the way for all the men of Musharraf to enter into PMLN.Moreover, Nawaz Sharif toured all provinces and held Jalsas in all provinces on war-footings.
4.Shehbaz Sharif increased his Nontakies many fold.During these last 17 months, he did three projects i-e Rapid Bus, Laptops and Solar Lamps.More importantly, the thirty-year old media might of PMLN sold these things at the rapid pace.Just look how quickly they were able to sign an agreement with Transparency International Pakistan (TIP) and get certificates from them for their three projects.Though, later on, TIP declined that they issued any certificate but till that time "Noon Leage apna souda sell kar chuki thi".
5.PTI was totally consumed in its intra-party elections and didn't hold any Jalsa between May 27,2012 and March 10, 2013.PTI gained momentum through Jalsas and it could have been maintained only through Jalsas as it was not in the govt to show off anything to the public.

So, is there anything which could suggest that PMLN opposed PPP vehemently? Please don't quote this Super-drama of caretaker prime minister.It has been already decided but they are not making it public.

Further, how is it possible that PMLN will be able to form govt in Punjab but will not able to form govt in the Center? During the last 2 years, PMLN kept its Punjab govt with the help of 48 LOTAS of Q-league.In the next elections, Q-league will be almost wiped out.In all possible scenarios, if PMLN is able to form govt in Punjab at its own, it will also form govt in center with the help of two or three smaller allies (e.g JUI-F, BNP,PML-F, FATA etc).On the other hand, if PMLN, PPP and PTI get seats in proximity at NA level, PMLN and PTI will get approx same number of seats in Punjab assembly, which will make it impossible for PMLN to form govt at its own in Punjab Province.

Think about my analysis and if any of you people still doubt, I can present you with some numbers to justify my case that if there is hung-parliament in the center, PMLN will not be able to form govt in Punjab without the help of either PPP or PTI.This is because we know that there are no smaller parties (like JUI-F, ANP, BNP, nationalists, PML-F) in Punjab that exist at Centeral level.

Finally, it is not the headache of PTI to think how PMLN will form govt in the center.If they join PPP or not, its their own choice.

 

[Yasir_88]

Agar Tahreek E Insaaf In status co Parties se Ithad kare gi tou Youth Imran khan se Peeche Hat Jaye gi

 

[aamir_uetn]

PTI will never have to choose among these parties, is se behtar hai opposition mein betha jaaye

 

[Pak1stani]

یہ سوال اس طرح ہونا چاہیے تھا کہ تحریک انصاف کو بندوق کے ذریے فوراّ (پی پی پی کے ساتھ اتحاد) یا پر پانی میں ڈوب کر آہستہ آہستہ (نون کے ساتھ اتحاد) موت میں سے کونسی قبول

 

[Omer632]

insha Allah this time no ifs & no buts..... only PTI will win & clean sweap insha Allah. we dont want to see any status quo parties any more.

NO to PPP & PMLN & MQM & JUI-F & PMLQ

 

[Just_one]

PTI will sit in opposition.

Your case is extremely hypothetical. PPP and PMLN will form an alliance.

And if they can't, then there would be re-elections, with PTI sweeping them without any doubt (as it would be then clear on those people who were doubtful that PTI is a force to reckon with).

You cannot blackmail us into alliance with crooks. PPP and PMLN are both crooks and both responsible for where Pakistan is today. Ruling Pakistan with any of them is a disaster for Pakistan and also for PTI's purpose.

 

[Just_one]

Yar, what is the purpose of power? For PTI, it's to fix Pakistan. You can't do that while allying with PMLN.

PMLN is a corrupt party that is born out of rigging and corruption. It is a party that relies on every form of crookedness to come into power. It has no vision. It is no different from PPP.

So if PTI doesn't get a good mandate, it will sit in the opposiiton and let those wiht the bigger mandate rule - or re-election.

If PMLN makes an alliance with PPP, it will certainly be great for PTI as it will vastly erode the support base of PMLN. But why expect the opponents to be idiots who'll do exactly as we want them to do? After PTI called it friendly opposition, PMLN has spent the best part of last two years trying to show that it is the real opponent of PPP. This is how it has managed to reclaim some of supporters that it had lost to PTI. It has no reason to commit a political suicide by siding with PPP again.

Furthermore, if PMLN manages to form provincial government in Punjab but does not have a clear majority in the center, it will prefer that nobody is able to make federal government and the national assembly is dissolved. In that case, the new elections will be held for national assembly only with PMLN ruling in Punjab. PMLN will certainly like that to happen as it is likely to gain more seats in such scenario.

 

[Argonaut]

First, it is not two years that PMLN is opposing PPP to some extent.Rather, it is less than 1.5 years.Second, People of Pakistan are not so stupid.We know that even in the last 17 months, when PMLN showed some opposition, everytime both main parties feared threat to their interests, they got united.Let me give you three examples.

1.During the Senate elections of Feb-March 2012, both parties supported each other.This has been pointed out by many political analysts.
2.After they passed 20th amendment, they appointed the four provincial election commissioners though classic MUK-MUKA.It was not revealed at that time but later on when Qadri told the whole nation, this matter became clear.

3.Very recently, Election commission added few clauses in the nomination papers which can cause problems for electables of both parties and both parties took ECP to task in media and Assembly.

Now, I shed some light on how PMLN was able to regain some of its lost ground.

The lost ground was not regained by the opposition of PPP but due to some other factors.These are:

1.The 24/7 propaganda machine of PMLN against PTI.This machine was on rest before Oct 30, 2011.This machine, aided by the weak media performance of PTI, helped PMLN tremendously.
2.The worst governance of PPP in the center, Sindh and Balochistan which helped PMLN's slightly better govt of Punjab look like a real good one.This, coupled with the ever present media projection of PMLN helped it a lot.
3.PMLN's opening of all doors and breaking of all self-imposed principles made the way for all the men of Musharraf to enter into PMLN.Moreover, Nawaz Sharif toured all provinces and held Jalsas in all provinces on war-footings.
4.Shehbaz Sharif increased his Nontakies many fold.During these last 17 months, he did three projects i-e Rapid Bus, Laptops and Solar Lamps.More importantly, the thirty-year old media might of PMLN sold these things at the rapid pace.Just look how quickly they were able to sign an agreement with Transparency International Pakistan (TIP) and get certificates from them for their three projects.Though, later on, TIP declined that they issued any certificate but till that time "Noon Leage apna souda sell kar chuki thi".
5.PTI was totally consumed in its intra-party elections and didn't hold any Jalsa between May 27,2012 and March 10, 2013.PTI gained momentum through Jalsas and it could have been maintained only through Jalsas as it was not in the govt to show off anything to the public.

So, is there anything which could suggest that PMLN opposed PPP vehemently? Please don't quote this Super-drama of caretaker prime minister.It has been already decided but they are not making it public.

Further, how is it possible that PMLN will be able to form govt in Punjab but will not able to form govt in the Center? During the last 2 years, PMLN kept its Punjab govt with the help of 48 LOTAS of Q-league.In the next elections, Q-league will be almost wiped out.In all possible scenarios, if PMLN is able to form govt in Punjab at its own, it will also form govt in center with the help of two or three smaller allies (e.g JUI-F, BNP,PML-F, FATA etc).On the other hand, if PMLN, PPP and PTI get seats in proximity at NA level, PMLN and PTI will get approx same number of seats in Punjab assembly, which will make it impossible for PMLN to form govt at its own in Punjab Province.

Think about my analysis and if any of you people still doubt, I can present you with some numbers to justify my case that if there is hung-parliament in the center, PMLN will not be able to form govt in Punjab without the help of either PPP or PTI.This is because we know that there are no smaller parties (like JUI-F, ANP, BNP, nationalists, PML-F) in Punjab that exist at Centeral level.

Finally, it is not the headache of PTI to think how PMLN will form govt in the center.If they join PPP or not, its their own choice.

A party winning majority in Punjab and being in a minority in national assembly has happened before in 1988. Assuming the party that wins an NA seat in Punjab also wins the underlying PA seats in that constituency (average 2 each), PMLN by winning 75 NA seats from Punjab will also win 150 seats in Punjab PA thus giving it a majority in Punjab provincial assembly.

In the national assembly, by winning 15 more seats from other provinces PMLN's total is say 90, if PPP and its allies including MQM & ANP manage 90 seats as well and PTI ends up with 70 with the rest going to independents and others. In such scenario, with PTI sitting in opposition either PMLN and PPP have to make a coalition to form a government or there will be a minority government.

Remember PMLN kicked out PPP from Punjab government after the rise of PTI in order to dispel the impression that they were in cahoots with PPP. If you think that PMLN guys are such fools to ally with PPP again and alienate their whole vote base, you may be right but I do not think so.

PTI's emotional support will be at its peak during the coming elections with even non resident Pakistanis coming to vote for it. If such support can give PTI an absolute majority then great. But if not, then PTI is not going to do any better in second elections held in say 3 months later in September. It is therefore in PTI's interest to let a government form and continue for at least a couple of years. In the meanwhile if PTI forms govt in KPK and shows good performance, it will have something to show to the voters.

If PTI does not do so, it will risk the chance of PMLN getting absolute majority in National Assembly in second elections held in September and in my opinion, it is too big a risk to take.

Emotional sloganeering is OK before elections that we hate both these parties equally. But once elections are over and rationality takes over, we'll have to decide on a lesser evil even if PTI keeps sitting in opposition in national assembly.

Of course all this is hypothetical, but then any analysis will remain hypothetical till the election day.

 

[saeed khan]

As you said that if no one get majority and both PPP and PMLN need PTI to form a government then ?
If Pakistanis will elect these corrupt politicians again which raped them again and again then they do not deserve a free country.
Pakistan and Pakistanis` future depends on their votes.

 

[nomishah]

who think pti will win more seats then fazlu is fool simple(serious)

Bhai izzat se naam lijiay diesel sahib mian sahib k is election k naye baray bhai hain bilkul aisay jese zardari sahib 2008 main thay .

 

[K . Z]

No reason to post this thread. Total wastage of time, come on guys, trust your leader, try your best, Pray to ALLAH and leave all in HIS hands. I don't think anything doubtful if IK said that PTI will clean sweep because there is a solid possibility that new voters (mostly the youth) will be voting this time. Voters who never voted to any party are also motivated this time and they are committed to vote to PTI.

Let's think again,
- what IK said about World Cup and how people laughed at him
- everybody was doubtful about the cancer hospital except IK
- it was really unrealistic to build a University of international standards in a rural area but IK did

Plans, Technical support and execution can be provided by anybody but to convert a dream into reality we need motivation and commitment and only IK has these qualities.

 

[nomishah]

Sawal hai k PTI samundar main doob ker merna chahti hai ya khayee main gir ker ab is ka kia jawab dain ?

 

[ihsanbajwa]

Most realistic people predict 20 seats for PTI. With 20 seats PTI will have only option to sit in opposition. Ya phir aik aadh wazarat lay kur uwam ke nazron say gir gaye.

 

[Argonaut]

Most realistic people predict 20 seats for PTI. With 20 seats PTI will have only option to sit in opposition. Ya phir aik aadh wazarat lay kur uwam ke nazron say gir gaye.

Even if PTI gets 20-40 seats, still PTI can potentially be king maker as no other party may be able to make government without PTI's support.

In that case, PTI will have to play its cards really well.

The best scenario for PTI will be indeed a PMLN-PPP coalition government which will prove PTI's claim that these are one and the same and such coalition will soon dither away due to internal contradictions making PTI favorite to win popular support.

However, if these two do not play according to the script and do not form a coalition government, PTI will have to make a decision. A hung assembly with no one able to form government will have to be dissolved. But new elections after such a short interval will be bad news for PTI as in such elections people generally go for established parties plus PMLN govt in Punjab and PPP govt in Sindh will further reduce PTI's chances.

In such case the better option for PTI, in my opinion, is not to let the assembly to be dissolved but allowing one of these parties to form minority government while sitting in opposition. In two years time, PTI can withdraw its support and we can go for new elections. PTI will be re-energized by the time and in addition to non performance of federal govt will have its own KPK govt's good performance to show.

Whether we like it or not, PTI may have to take the bitter pill of supporting or at least not trying to topple the minority government of one of these two parties. The question remains, which party will PTI choose?

 

[fasmik]

pti should go for a full member referendum in this case. 7 million members will decide.

 

[Nakhtar]

Should support PML-N, better team, less corrupt and more Pakistani than PPP.

When you have to select one wrong(big and small ) out of two reject both ; and when you have to select one right from two go for both;

 

[Just_one]

Kon se team? Aap bhi propaganda ka shikar ho gaye?

Sambdhi Ishaq Dar ke kia economic qualifications hain money laundering ke ilawa? Ehsan Iqbal ki kia auqaak hai lambi zubaan ke ilawa? Kh Asif ki tu baat hi chor do. Kon se team?

Should support PML-N, better team, less corrupt and more Pakistani than PPP.

 

[Just_one]

What would be the purpose of forming government with these crooks? It will just destroy PTI's reputation and dishonor Imran Khan.

Why would he do that?

He would simply sit in the opposition.

Why do you feel it to be NECESSARY to be in power at all costs? We don't.

A party winning majority in Punjab and being in a minority in national assembly has happened before in 1988. Assuming the party that wins an NA seat in Punjab also wins the underlying PA seats in that constituency (average 2 each), PMLN by winning 75 NA seats from Punjab will also win 150 seats in Punjab PA thus giving it a majority in Punjab provincial assembly.

In the national assembly, by winning 15 more seats from other provinces PMLN's total is say 90, if PPP and its allies including MQM & ANP manage 90 seats as well and PTI ends up with 70 with the rest going to independents and others. In such scenario, with PTI sitting in opposition either PMLN and PPP have to make a coalition to form a government or there will be a minority government.

Remember PMLN kicked out PPP from Punjab government after the rise of PTI in order to dispel the impression that they were in cahoots with PPP. If you think that PMLN guys are such fools to ally with PPP again and alienate their whole vote base, you may be right but I do not think so.

PTI's emotional support will be at its peak during the coming elections with even non resident Pakistanis coming to vote for it. If such support can give PTI an absolute majority then great. But if not, then PTI is not going to do any better in second elections held in say 3 months later in September. It is therefore in PTI's interest to let a government form and continue for at least a couple of years. In the meanwhile if PTI forms govt in KPK and shows good performance, it will have something to show to the voters.

If PTI does not do so, it will risk the chance of PMLN getting absolute majority in National Assembly in second elections held in September and in my opinion, it is too big a risk to take.

Emotional sloganeering is OK before elections that we hate both these parties equally. But once elections are over and rationality takes over, we'll have to decide on a lesser evil even if PTI keeps sitting in opposition in national assembly.

Of course all this is hypothetical, but then any analysis will remain hypothetical till the election day.

 

[Just_one]

Lekin yeh un logon ko alienate kar sakta hai jo member nahi hain, ya vo log jo is referendum mein har jayen ge.

Aur PTi ko kiya milay ga? PMLn ya PPP ke saath governmnet kar ke badnami hi badnami ho gi.

Crucial decisions are not left to the people, the leader has to take initiative. If we went for referendum, then IK would have participated in TuQ's long march, which would have destroyed his reputation.

pti should go for a full member referendum in this case. 7 million members will decide.