Some predictions of the PEAK OIL THEORY from back in the year 2000
- Thread starter AsifAmeer
- Start date
It would be interesting to see the supply and demand curves superimposed on the chart above....is the blue line representing supply or demand?
The drop in oil prices coincided with the global economic slowdown and some credit to the sharp drop in 2008/2009 to the sharp fall in demand or speculation that demand would drop off significantly.
@AsifAmeer
The drop in oil prices coincided with the global economic slowdown and some credit to the sharp drop in 2008/2009 to the sharp fall in demand or speculation that demand would drop off significantly.
@AsifAmeer
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Your prediction is based on?
Drops in recent discoveries in North sea & M.E and Possible ban on offshore drilling in Gulf of Mexico.
Sanctions in Iran is another factor and u must be well aware of current political situation in M.E/ F.Y year of 11/12 was disastrous in Pakistani oil industry as well,
smalltimepro
Politcal Worker (100+ posts)
The blue line is moving average (MA) probably 30 day MA, not demand or supply. Just price.
He may not have considered the rise of fracking techniques though ...
[h=1]U.S. on track to become world's top oil producer[/h]
[h=1]U.S. on track to become world's top oil producer[/h]
Main problem with oil ( and food nowadays) is the speculators. The price is actually inflated by as much as 30%, with super tankers just hanging out in the sea. Peak oil is a shifty concept as hunter pointed out technology improves and previously inaccessible reserves become accessible.
The problems of Global warming will hit us long before we actually actually peak...
The problems of Global warming will hit us long before we actually actually peak...
Oil will never run out or other energy sources, just another bloody drama to make money out of everything. And our mates who believe in anything that is presented without even discussing it.
[MENTION=24375]AsifAmeer[/MENTION] yaar tag hee na kia kero idher jawab dekh dekh ke khoon khaulta hai. Only some try to talk, others are going just where mainstreamers want them to go. Whenever discussing anything and I mean anything at all, we always forget the primary source of knowledge about every issue i.e Word of Allah and Word of Prophet pbuh. We should coincide every theory with it and then look at things from different angles. Lets put it like this, if it has clearly been told that after a final war, the world would be more prosperous than ever, people healthy, happy and that everything would be in abundance than ever, we should exactly know that natural resources will never run out and that all the global warming or water shortage (I am not attacking anyone, just saying that we should see it like this too) hoaxes are not there as being told. I can have a long debate upon it but on internet forums, never!!! We are not looking at the obvious issues. Any shortage or any of such hoaxes if looked back upon, have a particular pattern of origin carefully maintained by those who control most of the wealth and all of these issues are nothing but another addition to the means through wealth is accumulated into their accounts. Not pointing out at banking dynasties only but all of the branches of this system which makes people enslaved.
I would provide a little thing to think upon. The massive introduction of Hepatitis B vaccines and bottled water. If we look back upon it, during a period of some years before this introduction (which becomes a sudden thing when looked upon the span of strategy), water which was considered the cleanest and safe was declared hazardous and containing Hepatitis and what not, even in the remote rural areas where no sewerage or industry was ever present (we would have most of the patients from those areas). Thus are the issues with oil prices, its shortages, global warming and all of the stuff going on.
And yes, we need to discuss only what they need us to discuss because we don't have the means to end this manipulation, people simply wouldn't listen. So when are we going to have 500$ per barrel, lets discuss it. Bhai ham to voh qoum hain jin ko youtube na dekhne ka kaha gaya to proxies aur na janay kia kia dhoond ke dekh rahay hain aur bahanay kia banaye howe hain, ji isko behtari ke liye use kerein ji yeh to sirf naiki ke liye use ker raha hoon. Imagine if a real boycott was done even for a month, how much the revenue would go down and how would they need to listen to the demand actually because nobody wants a crumbling business. I had heard somebody talking about youtube admins don't give a ....... about our boycott and I wanted to punch him out cold because I know that no boycott was ever done. Even he himself watches it through proxy, we are so self-righteous. Sorry, went off-topic so lets discuss that 500$ per barrel issue.
[MENTION=24375]AsifAmeer[/MENTION] yaar tag hee na kia kero idher jawab dekh dekh ke khoon khaulta hai. Only some try to talk, others are going just where mainstreamers want them to go. Whenever discussing anything and I mean anything at all, we always forget the primary source of knowledge about every issue i.e Word of Allah and Word of Prophet pbuh. We should coincide every theory with it and then look at things from different angles. Lets put it like this, if it has clearly been told that after a final war, the world would be more prosperous than ever, people healthy, happy and that everything would be in abundance than ever, we should exactly know that natural resources will never run out and that all the global warming or water shortage (I am not attacking anyone, just saying that we should see it like this too) hoaxes are not there as being told. I can have a long debate upon it but on internet forums, never!!! We are not looking at the obvious issues. Any shortage or any of such hoaxes if looked back upon, have a particular pattern of origin carefully maintained by those who control most of the wealth and all of these issues are nothing but another addition to the means through wealth is accumulated into their accounts. Not pointing out at banking dynasties only but all of the branches of this system which makes people enslaved.
I would provide a little thing to think upon. The massive introduction of Hepatitis B vaccines and bottled water. If we look back upon it, during a period of some years before this introduction (which becomes a sudden thing when looked upon the span of strategy), water which was considered the cleanest and safe was declared hazardous and containing Hepatitis and what not, even in the remote rural areas where no sewerage or industry was ever present (we would have most of the patients from those areas). Thus are the issues with oil prices, its shortages, global warming and all of the stuff going on.
And yes, we need to discuss only what they need us to discuss because we don't have the means to end this manipulation, people simply wouldn't listen. So when are we going to have 500$ per barrel, lets discuss it. Bhai ham to voh qoum hain jin ko youtube na dekhne ka kaha gaya to proxies aur na janay kia kia dhoond ke dekh rahay hain aur bahanay kia banaye howe hain, ji isko behtari ke liye use kerein ji yeh to sirf naiki ke liye use ker raha hoon. Imagine if a real boycott was done even for a month, how much the revenue would go down and how would they need to listen to the demand actually because nobody wants a crumbling business. I had heard somebody talking about youtube admins don't give a ....... about our boycott and I wanted to punch him out cold because I know that no boycott was ever done. Even he himself watches it through proxy, we are so self-righteous. Sorry, went off-topic so lets discuss that 500$ per barrel issue.
Theoretically, price should be the function of supply and demand i.e. uptick in price represents higher demand than supply. There's another factor at play here. It has to do with the Commodities and Futures modernization act. This basically made brought in gamblers from Las Vegas to Wall Street. Now commodity was no long just a resource but an "asset-class" to invest in. Invest is a nice word for hoarding here. You corner the market and act innocent.
If you look at Production over the years, its been growing pretty consistently.
Now look at the prices
You wanna hear the secret? The world isnt on any DOLLAR-Standard.. The Global economy is on the OIL STANDARD. There! I said it!
US can print as many dollars it wants but they cant produce oil to make the economy run. Paper trash doesnt run economies. Energy does. Energy...
If you look at Production over the years, its been growing pretty consistently.
Now look at the prices
You wanna hear the secret? The world isnt on any DOLLAR-Standard.. The Global economy is on the OIL STANDARD. There! I said it!
US can print as many dollars it wants but they cant produce oil to make the economy run. Paper trash doesnt run economies. Energy does. Energy...
Peak oil doesnt say we will run out of Oil. Its saying that all the low lying fruits have already been picked. Now its the hard places which we are trying to access Oil from which requires more resources (water, power, labor). And its certainly true.
Sawal ye hai, where's the growth of say 2% in Oil production going to come from to keep up with the demand? Maybe we'll be ok this year, maybe this decade.. Phir..? Those who say we can never run out of Oil are right. There will ALWAYS be Oil but not available in such vast quantities, i.e. no more cheap $34/barrel Oil. The avg will continue to move higher, even in terms of Gold, Price of Oil has been increasing since the mid-80s. Look at this chart.
This is the number of Barrels of Oil you could buy per Oz of Gold. Look at the avg trendline from the mid 80s till about 2008. Even the peaks (read Oil prices falling to its lows), are getting lower and lower.
Aur jo speculator ki baat ki hai.. Thats 110% true!
Sawal ye hai, where's the growth of say 2% in Oil production going to come from to keep up with the demand? Maybe we'll be ok this year, maybe this decade.. Phir..? Those who say we can never run out of Oil are right. There will ALWAYS be Oil but not available in such vast quantities, i.e. no more cheap $34/barrel Oil. The avg will continue to move higher, even in terms of Gold, Price of Oil has been increasing since the mid-80s. Look at this chart.
This is the number of Barrels of Oil you could buy per Oz of Gold. Look at the avg trendline from the mid 80s till about 2008. Even the peaks (read Oil prices falling to its lows), are getting lower and lower.
Aur jo speculator ki baat ki hai.. Thats 110% true!
I forgot the name of that economist who argued the same thing you are say here.
Your question. When will Oil reach $500?
Answer. To honestly answer your question, we would have to price Oil in Gold because Dollar is not an honest currency.
Acha today, you can buy almost 16 barrels of Oil for 1 oz of Gold. Theek?
But in the mid 80s, you could buy in avg about 24 barrels of Oil for 1 oz of Gold.
Your question is when will Oil reach 3.43 barrels per Gold oz?
Answer is, I dont know. But the trajectory is certainly heading there. I mean we have come from 24 to 16 in the last 25 years. And the factors are COMPOUNDING much faster as time goes by. Look, no one can time the prices, but the factors are right in front of us.
Now answer these question
Your question. When will Oil reach $500?
Answer. To honestly answer your question, we would have to price Oil in Gold because Dollar is not an honest currency.
Acha today, you can buy almost 16 barrels of Oil for 1 oz of Gold. Theek?
But in the mid 80s, you could buy in avg about 24 barrels of Oil for 1 oz of Gold.
Your question is when will Oil reach 3.43 barrels per Gold oz?
Answer is, I dont know. But the trajectory is certainly heading there. I mean we have come from 24 to 16 in the last 25 years. And the factors are COMPOUNDING much faster as time goes by. Look, no one can time the prices, but the factors are right in front of us.
Now answer these question
- Since the 80s, Oil production has increased 22%. Why havent the prices dropped then?
- Since the 80s, the World Population has doubled. Do you think that has no effect on Oil Price/Consumption?
- Once Oil is used up from an Oil Field, That field provides less and less Oil. Do you think Oil is constantly being produced naturally in the Earth's crust?
Theoretically, price should be the function of supply and demand i.e. uptick in price represents higher demand than supply. There's another factor at play here. It has to do with the Commodities and Futures modernization act. This basically made brought in gamblers from Las Vegas to Wall Street. Now commodity was no long just a resource but an "asset-class" to invest in. Invest is a nice word for hoarding here. You corner the market and act innocent.
If you look at Production over the years, its been growing pretty consistently.
Now look at the prices
Here is the consumption - which is a little interesting since the productio/supply as per your chart is less than consumption - can't explain the discrepancy:
Sorry for the busy graphic but I couldn't find a better cleaner one. The thing is that consumption/demand is growing and the supply/production is not keeping up. Now I understand that there are political and other games being played in terms of keeping the production down to manipulate the pricing. I just wanted to share the correlation.
Here are some other interesting graphics. I am not sure but one of the reason that the growth in consumption is not directly correlated to the growth in population could possibly be attributed to improved efficiency achieved in the motors/engines?
I really don't buy the argument that the natural resources are unlimited and will never run out and I don't even want to get into the global warming (or hoax as Temojin called it, sorry Temojin but I disagree with you on this one:-)
One interesting thing to notice is that the projections are that by 2030 oil as Fuel in the transportation and Industrial would drop as a percentage of all fuel types.
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That discrepancy in supply and demand.. I think the figures I shared are for the production of Sweet crude. Whereas the demand includes sweet crude, the West Texas crude and other kinda crudes like Tar sand crude and Biodiesel.. Thats my assumption.
ABout the population not correlating with consumption. I think as purchase power of currencies moves from the West to the East, Oil consumption per headcount is increasing. Its like a ZERO-Sum game. My standards of living will improve at your expense.. etc.
But excellent share. Thank you!
ABout the population not correlating with consumption. I think as purchase power of currencies moves from the West to the East, Oil consumption per headcount is increasing. Its like a ZERO-Sum game. My standards of living will improve at your expense.. etc.
But excellent share. Thank you!
Here is the consumption - which is a little interesting since the productio/supply as per your chart is less than consumption - can't explain the discrepancy:
Sorry for the busy graphic but I couldn't find a better cleaner one. The thing is that consumption/demand is growing and the supply/production is not keeping up. Now I understand that there are political and other games being played in terms of keeping the production down to manipulate the pricing. I just wanted to share the correlation.
Here are some other interesting graphics. I am not sure but one of the reason that the growth in consumption is not directly correlated to the growth in population could possibly attributed to inefficiencies achieved in the motors/engines?
I really don't buy the argument that the natural resources are unlimited and will never run out and I don't even want to get into the global warming (or hoax as Temojin called it, sorry Temojin but I disagree with you on this one:-)
One interesting thing to notice is that the projections are that by 2030 oil as Fuel in the transportation and Industrial would drop as a percentage of all fuel types.
That dry dung thing.. yeah.. I think we should learn that. Place your bets.. place your bets!
Keepinformed
Siasat.pk - Blogger
If it tests the $58 to $60 first before going back to 2008 highs then this is it. Oil will not see $50s pricing again.
But if it goes up straight to touch the 2008 highs without touching these low $40-$50 areas first then we are going to see immense fall from those mountain highs.
Either way the world needs time a few years to spread the liquidity amongst the jobless who then can buy cars to impress plastic implant girls.
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Bro, forget the dollar.. We are all on the Oil Standard now.. 1st world, 2nd world & the 3rd world...
Remember those roits in Tunisia, Egypt? Its not because ppl realized "oh sh!t, we have a dictator". They couldnt feed themselves & their kids. Thats the nature of humans - we wont speak of injustice till it starts to affect us personally.
We as humans are all tied together economically via Oil.
Remember those roits in Tunisia, Egypt? Its not because ppl realized "oh sh!t, we have a dictator". They couldnt feed themselves & their kids. Thats the nature of humans - we wont speak of injustice till it starts to affect us personally.
We as humans are all tied together economically via Oil.
Good point, world has become more materialistic.
