Qudsi
Minister (2k+ posts)
Lets Do some serious calculations.
Following factors were ignored by media while predicting election results.( at least for punjab)
1. Swing Vote: call it popularity Wave, electable candidate, national narrative or whatever. IN USA voter swing sometimes amounts to 60-70%. Even this happened in Pakistan oin many elections, e.g PPP rooted out of Punjab etc.
We will take 15% Swing vote in favour of PTI in our calculations.
2. New Voters: On average more than 1 lac new voters will cast their vote for the first time in each constituency, majority of which is young generation and said to be supporters of PTI.
3. Political Leadership: Imagine PTI without IK and PPP without Bilwal and Zardari, same way NS conviction will have huge impact on PMLN voters turnout.
Lets take example of NA 125 , the data is based on by elections in 2017 in old NA 120.
1.Total Voters in Old NA 120= 295826
PMLN: Votes 61,745 i.e 49.35%
PTI: Votes 47,099 i.e 37.64 %
After15% Swing Vote
PMLN= 63,222
PTI= 91,229
2.Total Voters in 2018=485,624
With Turn out expecting the same 51.85% and calculate new voters in same proportion the final votes will be.
PMLN: Votes 100,263
PTI: Votes 139,794
3. Reduce PMLN voter turnout by 20% =80,210 also deduct 10K of bogus votes ;) (Oooooopppppsss its going down a bit too much)
So my analysis is:
1. In most of the constituencies the winners will have 1 lac plus votes.
2. PMLN will have less turnout.
3. New voters will have huge impact on results towards PTI.
4. Voters Swing of 15% will be minimum, expect more than that. In last elections more than 50 seats have margin of 5%. Now this will come a big way to PTI favour.
I am saving this post for election night.
Following factors were ignored by media while predicting election results.( at least for punjab)
1. Swing Vote: call it popularity Wave, electable candidate, national narrative or whatever. IN USA voter swing sometimes amounts to 60-70%. Even this happened in Pakistan oin many elections, e.g PPP rooted out of Punjab etc.
We will take 15% Swing vote in favour of PTI in our calculations.
2. New Voters: On average more than 1 lac new voters will cast their vote for the first time in each constituency, majority of which is young generation and said to be supporters of PTI.
3. Political Leadership: Imagine PTI without IK and PPP without Bilwal and Zardari, same way NS conviction will have huge impact on PMLN voters turnout.
Lets take example of NA 125 , the data is based on by elections in 2017 in old NA 120.
1.Total Voters in Old NA 120= 295826
PMLN: Votes 61,745 i.e 49.35%
PTI: Votes 47,099 i.e 37.64 %
After15% Swing Vote
PMLN= 63,222
PTI= 91,229
2.Total Voters in 2018=485,624
With Turn out expecting the same 51.85% and calculate new voters in same proportion the final votes will be.
PMLN: Votes 100,263
PTI: Votes 139,794
3. Reduce PMLN voter turnout by 20% =80,210 also deduct 10K of bogus votes ;) (Oooooopppppsss its going down a bit too much)
So my analysis is:
1. In most of the constituencies the winners will have 1 lac plus votes.
2. PMLN will have less turnout.
3. New voters will have huge impact on results towards PTI.
4. Voters Swing of 15% will be minimum, expect more than that. In last elections more than 50 seats have margin of 5%. Now this will come a big way to PTI favour.
I am saving this post for election night.
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