Realistic Analysis & Discussion on 2013 Election Possible Results.

[punjabimunda1]

Re: make your perdiction(unbiased): about election results

Your estimate is more Realistic;)

[TABLE="class: cms_table_wikitable"]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, colspan: 2, align: center"]Affiliation
[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]Members
[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #DD1133"][/TD]
[TD]PMLN
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #1A7647"][/TD]
[TD]PTI
[/TD]
[TD]72
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #41AE41"][/TD]
[TD]PPP
[/TD]
[TD]48
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #C43F3F"][/TD]
[TD]MQM
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: red"][/TD]
[TD]ANP
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #3F8AC4"][/TD]
[TD]JUI-(F)
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #4CDD4C"][/TD]
[TD]PML (F)
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]PML(Q)
[/TD]
[TD]16
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #BEBEBE"][/TD]
[TD]Independents/ JI/OTHERS
[/TD]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, colspan: 2, align: center"]Total
[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]270
[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, colspan: 2, align: center"]Ruling coalition majority
[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]N/A
[/TH]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Hung parliament

 

[NayaPakistani]

I wrote this piece few weeks ago.

Phenomena that is imran khan.

All the Nawaz supporters and PPP supporters you dont understand the phenomena that is Imran Khan. We dont support him for his personal life, we support him for what he has done for the people of pakistan, and what he wants to do for all the people of pakistan. We dont Support Nawaz and Zardari and all like them because of what they have done to the people of pakistan.

Once again nawaz and zardari supporters fail to understand, Support for Tehreek e insaf exist in the population because of their agenda of change of the Status Quo. Pakistan will vote for Change and his Will and hard work to bring that change , Not for Imran Khan. Once you understand that you will realize you have already lost. This election is not about one person on either side,

It is about Change Vs Status Quo.

Supporters of Tehreek e insaf are not blind supporters. If Imran Khan fails to deliver, his support will disappear in a second.
If you wish to eliminate his support then FIX the problems of Pakistan before Elections. Otherwise your attacks on his personal life or anything else will be useless.

My humble and polite request to all who do not support Tehreek e Insaf, if you are not a blind supporter. Wake up or " Uttho Meray Pakistani apna Quom ko Jaga do". Vote not for yourself but vote against everything wrong you see in pakistan. Vote not to fix your life but to Fix someone else life. If you are getting Paid to post on Social Media Then I am very happy for you and your family that you have a job. But cast your vote for all the 150million people that cant get a job. When you go to work in pakistan tomorrow look around and see how many things that needs to be fixed.

My Opinion PTI Needs 75-95 seats in punjab alone.
IT is Possible because last 2008 elections, PPPP took 42 seats and PMLQ took 28 seats in punjab which are up for grabs in this election.
In 2008 Majority of voters of PPPP represented symphathy vote for Benazir, all of those will be voting for PTI.
Majority of PMLQ voters represented Change and supported Musharaf. They will also be voting for PTI.
Nawaz Party was popular in the north and in the cities and represented 86 seats in punjab. I believe PTI will take half of those seats. about 43.

On the low count I see PTI winning 70 seats, on the high count i see PTI winning 100 seats in punjab.
They will probably make alliance with Nawab Bhawalpur parties 15 seats,
Pir Pagara Sindh Parties PMLF 15 seats,
Mengal and Baluchistan parties 15 seats
JI any seats they can win 10 to 20 seats
Independents 10- 20 seats.
PTI will take some seats in Karachi and Quetta.

I see full PTI sweep IN KP and Northern areas.
With 70 seats in punjab and full sweep in KP and northern areas. I think there will be enough seats to form a government.
I believe this because i believe in the people of pakistan who have been sitting on the sidelines of politics, but have mobilized in this election.

Everyone talks about the Youth vote.
But In this elections Women's vote will be the deciding factor in each district. Women who decided to stay home on previous election day are comming out to vote even if 30% of women who have not voted before, if they show up, PTI will clean sweep.

First 5 years plug all the leaks and get pakistan industry and population rolling, next 5 years build Pakistan eliminate poverty once and for all.

There are Pakistanis from all over the world and more in Pakistan that are just waiting for a honest leader to pump money into pakistan's economy and banks and wipe the 65 Billion debt of pakistan out in 5 years.

Inshallah. always remember this is just a battle, War will continue till the 2018 elections and PTI will win 100% of the seats.

http://www.siasat.pk/forum/showthread.php?179993-PROTEST-letter-to-the-Media-from-us-Web-Collective

http://www.siasat.pk/forum/showthrea...07#post1483707
​

NASNY...this is the most logical analysis i have seen since i joined siasat.pk..i really appreciate it(clap)(clap)(clap)

 

[NayaPakistani]

Re: make your perdiction(unbiased): about election results

Your estimate is more Realistic;)

11th may is not far now..........stop worrying about PTI (i have got reservations on PMLN(86) and PPP (48))

 

[Uzair Ahmed]

Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf will get most votes and Inshallah will clean sweep the elections...

INSHALLAH!!!!! No more noora khushti of shareef and zardari families..Pakistan in families k liye bnaya tha kya?

 

[Uzair Ahmed]

Interesting facts : PML(N) got 7 million votes TOTAL in last elections.

There are 8 million regular facebook users in Pakistan...

In every single poll on facebook, PTI leads PML(N) by heavy margin...

This tells you the trend...

Inshallah, PTI will clean sweep elections...

 

[punjabimunda1]

Aisa ho to bohat acha ho ga,,magar yeh sirf khwab o khial aur khush fehmi hai aap ki,,,PTI will win in big cities and few rural areas,mera khial hai PTI 40,50 seats jeet sake gi,I dont see any revolution on 11 May---PTI ke friends yaad rakhain ke N League PPP ki tarah nazariati party nahin,,N League ke supporters easily PTI ki tarf shift ho sakte hain lekin PPP ke jahil jaiyalay shaid hi PTI ki tarf jayen gey,,Jahil aur gareeb Sindhis jab tak PPP ko vote dete rahain gay tab tak Pakistan mein koi change nahin aa sakti,,yehi lootmaar ka nizam,yehi gurbat,yehi jahaalat Pakistan ko deemak ki tarah chateta rahe ga,,,Good Luck;)

Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf will get most votes and Inshallah will clean sweep the elections...

INSHALLAH!!!!! No more noora khushti of shareef and zardari families..Pakistan in families k liye bnaya tha kya?

 

[betterpakistan]

My assessment based on tv analysis, public interviews, current wave progress and candidate positions

PTI will win NA seats as following

40-50 from North Punjab
20-25 from KKP
5 -10 from South Punjab
2 -4 from Balochistan
2- 4 from Sindh

This will be in between 69 - 93 NA seats, in 2013 general election. Which is a quite good performance by a youth party and enough to start change in Pakistan and in current corrupt political system

 

[Raja Farhan Arif]

Re: make your perdiction(unbiased): about election results

To the best of my knowledge...

[TABLE="class: wikitable"]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, colspan: 2, align: center"]Affiliation[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]Members[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #DD1133"][/TD]
[TD]PTI[/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #1A7647"][/TD]
[TD]PML(N)[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #41AE41"][/TD]
[TD]PPP[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #C43F3F"][/TD]
[TD]PML (Q)[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: red"][/TD]
[TD]MQM[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #3F8AC4"][/TD]
[TD]PML (F)[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #4CDD4C"][/TD]
[TD]JI[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]JUI-(F) + ANP[/TD]
[TD]2 + 5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #BEBEBE"][/TD]
[TD]Independents/Others[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, colspan: 2, align: center"]Total[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]270[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, colspan: 2, align: center"]Ruling coalition majority[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]N/A[/TH]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

You still beleive that PMLN and PPP will get seats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! grow up man Imran khan will clean sweep, In sha Allah!

 

[delta_paki]

Re: make your perdiction(unbiased): about election results

You still beleive that PMLN and PPP will get seats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! grow up man Imran khan will clean sweep, In sha Allah!

I am sorry but I don't see PTI clean sweeping in any way....the illiteracy and lack of political awareness in interior and Northern Sindh, extremist elements in Baluchistan, terrorism and violent parties in Karachi, blind baradari support in rural Punjab (esp. central and a bit of the North), unquestioned murshid following in Southern Punjab and Northern Sindh, Mazara and wadera culture and presence of strong electable against PTI, all these points are going against a PTI clean sweep....although I want it with all my heart but sadly I don't see it happening, yet.

 

[pakistan101]

Pmln will win I want pmln + pti do alliance for better Pak I hope u will understand my point

 

[pakistan101]

Re: make your perdiction(unbiased): about election results

You still beleive that PMLN and PPP will get seats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! grow up man Imran khan will clean sweep, In sha Allah!

Ready to bet for 10000 pounds its not true

 

[Raja Farhan Arif]

Re: make your perdiction(unbiased): about election results

Ready to bet for 10000 pounds its not true

I want but you know it's Haram!!!!!!!!!!1:);)

 

[farooq1967]

HI PML N LIONS, believe Pasha Tyrian Investment (PTI) jokers. Najam Sethi has given commitment on orders of Zaradri and Malik Riaz to pool 20000-25000 votes against PML N strongholds. So they have assessment based on Najam Sethi commitments. IN KPK, you know PATHAN bahi love junoon (hip) of PTI, they shake so nice, all see junoon. Phenomena that is imran khan kay nam sey kis nay bak bak likh h. Zakat par hospital bana bahadari nahi, amrd ka bacha h koi Pakistan aik Sharif Trust jassa zati investment sey hospital bana kar dekhia, CHALLANGE koi asey kisi project ka nam bata dey, jo kisi ki zati halal ki kamie sey hu. Aik aurat ko change nay kar saka, Pakistan change karey ga.

 

[drkjke]

hung parliament is most likely..and in this case ppp having majority in senate for next 3 years will be king maker....anyway lets see

 

[drkjke]

I am also hearing malik riyaz is very active these days for certain parties..alas if supreme court had imprisoned him he could not have effected the result of these elections...did supreme court punish even one criminal?gailani and family is still free after looting ten billions.pervaiz ashraf is free and high court even allowed him to contest elections.malik riyaz is also doing his buying selling...all corrupts are fooling the nation

 

[drkjke]

Its not 130 seats that PTI needs, the no. of seats required to form government with simple majority is 125. Don't sign off PTI from Balochistan and Sindh with 0 seats. I think if PTI manages to take about 85-90 seats from Punjab, 25 from KPK and around 10 seats from Balochistan and Sindh combined. This should ensure the formation of central government with simple majority and then minorities and women seats are distributed in proportion adding up to about a total of 172 seats which is the required sum required for forming government in center.

pti strangely did not do effort in Sindh balochistan...don't know about Sindh but balochistan pakhtoon belt could have given them some seats,and even in Karachi they could have scored few seats specially in case mqm boycotts elections in the end....Punjab has too many contestants...n league,q league,ppp (strong in south Punjab) and some islami parties...so in Punjab results could be surprising because when votes get split many ways sometime the underdog wins

 

[surfer]

HI PML N LIONS, believe Pasha Tyrian Investment (PTI) jokers. Najam Sethi has given commitment on orders of Zaradri and Malik Riaz to pool 20000-25000 votes against PML N strongholds. So they have assessment based on Najam Sethi commitments. IN KPK, you know PATHAN bahi love junoon (hip) of PTI, they shake so nice, all see junoon. Phenomena that is imran khan kay nam sey kis nay bak bak likh h. Zakat par hospital bana bahadari nahi, amrd ka bacha h koi Pakistan aik Sharif Trust jassa zati investment sey hospital bana kar dekhia, CHALLANGE koi asey kisi project ka nam bata dey, jo kisi ki zati halal ki kamie sey hu. Aik aurat ko change nay kar saka, Pakistan change karey ga.

Are you really 47 years of age?

 

[GreenMaple]

PTI cannot win on 'electables'. It will only win if vote is casted for PTI, not the candidate. For this to happen, PTI needs a wave, which I believe has already started.

 

[GreenMaple]

Here is my take:

1. There are about 85 million total registered voters
2. About 40 m are total youth voters
3. There are 10m youth already members of PTI
4. If 80% of PTI youth cast their vote (they are motivated), then 8m votes for PTI
5. Of remaining 30m youth, 50% support PTI (according to surveys)
6. If youth turnout is say 50% (min), and 50% vote for PTI, then 7.5m votes for PTI
7. The adult votes are about 45m, say half male, half female voters (22.5m each)
8. Let’s say 50% male voters cast their vote, i.e. 11.25m
9. If PTI gets 25% of adult male voters, then votes for PTI is 2.8m
10. Let’s say 40% female voters cast their vote, i.e. 9m
11. If PTI gets 30% of adult female voters, then votes for PTI is 2.7m
12. So the total votes for PTI will be 8+7.5+2.8+2.7=21m
13. The blended voter turnout (weighted average) is 50%, i.e. 42.5m
14. Over PTI share of popular vote 21/42.5=49.5%
15. How much it will actually convert to seats is anybody’s guess

This is the most pessimistic scenario for PTI. A turnout of more than 50% will for sure translate into PTI majority. These rough calculations are based on information as of today. The ground reality is changing very quickly, mostly in PTI’s favour.