Realistic Analysis & Discussion on 2013 Election Possible Results.

[betterpakistan]

Realistic Analysis & Discussion on 2013 Election Possible Results.


Folks lets start discussion of 2013 election based on current situation. Let try to be realistic and understand where each parties presently are.

PLM N

Seems to be losing urban grounds vs PTI, PTI did surprise everyone with aggressive election campaign where they do 5-6 jalas daily, and some of them were huge jalsas enough to show its strengths for some urban areas in North and South Punjab, and KKP.
Question is this is enough by PTI to dent PLMN in Punjab ?? Can PTI secure atleast 50-60 seats from Punjab ?

Question for PLM N is can they secure expected 60-80 seats from Punjab, as PTI is giving them challenge which were never there before even PPP were not that strong in Punjab in past. Even PLM N secure 80 seats from Punjab, would MQM, PPP, and JUI will for alliance with PLM N for next government as there goals are much different than PLM N.

Out of 148 seats in Punjab would it be possible for PLM N and PTI to secure 50 seats each ?


PTI

Since they are on solo flight, they are un willing to do alliances any where, therefore they do need at least 130+ seats to form government, since there position in Sindh and Baluchistan is very weak, they are counting on 100 seats from Punjab and 25-30 seats from KKP to form a government. Now even if turn out goes to 60% would this be possible for PTI to secure 130+ NA seats is the big question to be asked. Has Imran Khan secured a wave needed for clean sweep yet, it is very hard to tell.

PPP

This party used to be known as Pakistan largest party, however now has become a dying giant under ERA of Asif Ali Zardari. PPP is only counting on SIDH for NA seats, SINDH has maximum of 60, can PPP secure at least 40 seats from SINDH, seems like a difficult task. Will other parties, independents, MQM, JUI and may be PLMN, PLMN Q will form alliance with PPP. I don’t think any party would like to be partner with PPP to further hurt there reputation. Not sure what will be results for PPP in this election, can be a 1996 election repeat where PPP only got 18 NA seats.


Overall

Overall I see that PLM N has all the advantages on there side, and PTI has daunting task, should PTI decided to form government then they have to make a alliance with the parties which has 40-60 NA seats, but I do not think this will be happening after election. This situation is favoring PLM N …

 

[yasirmaliq]

Its not 130 seats that PTI needs, the no. of seats required to form government with simple majority is 125. Don't sign off PTI from Balochistan and Sindh with 0 seats. I think if PTI manages to take about 85-90 seats from Punjab, 25 from KPK and around 10 seats from Balochistan and Sindh combined. This should ensure the formation of central government with simple majority and then minorities and women seats are distributed in proportion adding up to about a total of 172 seats which is the required sum required for forming government in center.

 

[TONIC]

Keep dreaming......in the name of realistic analysis you are trying to sell PML N's agenda....

Imran khan will secure 130+ wait till 11 May

In Pakistan....Trends have always shown that people who are in Government can't form Govt.

 

[ProCJ]

We are Idealists not realists.. So our dream will come true InshaAllah.. You will see on May 12

 

[TONIC]

We are Idealists not realists.. So our dream will come true InshaAllah.. You will see on May 12

Not May 12....InshaAllah May 12 honey say pahlay hee PTI jeet chukee ho gee

 

[najeebahmad]

Stats change drastically in last week at most places in the world even in DEVELOPED world.
Tabdeeli Razakar & May 6-9 March towards Islamabad will decide the fate of PTI.
Naya Pakistan , Inshallah.

 

[jazbati]

Brothers always right In-sha-Allah

 

[NasNY]

I wrote this piece few weeks ago.

Phenomena that is imran khan.

All the Nawaz supporters and PPP supporters you dont understand the phenomena that is Imran Khan. We dont support him for his personal life, we support him for what he has done for the people of pakistan, and what he wants to do for all the people of pakistan. We dont Support Nawaz and Zardari and all like them because of what they have done to the people of pakistan.

Once again nawaz and zardari supporters fail to understand, Support for Tehreek e insaf exist in the population because of their agenda of change of the Status Quo. Pakistan will vote for Change and his Will and hard work to bring that change , Not for Imran Khan. Once you understand that you will realize you have already lost. This election is not about one person on either side,

It is about Change Vs Status Quo.

Supporters of Tehreek e insaf are not blind supporters. If Imran Khan fails to deliver, his support will disappear in a second.
If you wish to eliminate his support then FIX the problems of Pakistan before Elections. Otherwise your attacks on his personal life or anything else will be useless.

My humble and polite request to all who do not support Tehreek e Insaf, if you are not a blind supporter. Wake up or " Uttho Meray Pakistani apna Quom ko Jaga do". Vote not for yourself but vote against everything wrong you see in pakistan. Vote not to fix your life but to Fix someone else life. If you are getting Paid to post on Social Media Then I am very happy for you and your family that you have a job. But cast your vote for all the 150million people that cant get a job. When you go to work in pakistan tomorrow look around and see how many things that needs to be fixed.

My Opinion PTI Needs 75-95 seats in punjab alone.
IT is Possible because last 2008 elections, PPPP took 42 seats and PMLQ took 28 seats in punjab which are up for grabs in this election.
In 2008 Majority of voters of PPPP represented symphathy vote for Benazir, all of those will be voting for PTI.
Majority of PMLQ voters represented Change and supported Musharaf. They will also be voting for PTI.
Nawaz Party was popular in the north and in the cities and represented 86 seats in punjab. I believe PTI will take half of those seats. about 43.

On the low count I see PTI winning 70 seats, on the high count i see PTI winning 100 seats in punjab.
They will probably make alliance with Nawab Bhawalpur parties 15 seats,
Pir Pagara Sindh Parties PMLF 15 seats,
Mengal and Baluchistan parties 15 seats
JI any seats they can win 10 to 20 seats
Independents 10- 20 seats.
PTI will take some seats in Karachi and Quetta.

I see full PTI sweep IN KP and Northern areas.
With 70 seats in punjab and full sweep in KP and northern areas. I think there will be enough seats to form a government.
I believe this because i believe in the people of pakistan who have been sitting on the sidelines of politics, but have mobilized in this election.

Everyone talks about the Youth vote.
But In this elections Women's vote will be the deciding factor in each district. Women who decided to stay home on previous election day are comming out to vote even if 30% of women who have not voted before, if they show up, PTI will clean sweep.

First 5 years plug all the leaks and get pakistan industry and population rolling, next 5 years build Pakistan eliminate poverty once and for all.

There are Pakistanis from all over the world and more in Pakistan that are just waiting for a honest leader to pump money into pakistan's economy and banks and wipe the 65 Billion debt of pakistan out in 5 years.

Inshallah. always remember this is just a battle, War will continue till the 2018 elections and PTI will win 100% of the seats.

http://www.siasat.pk/forum/showthread.php?179993-PROTEST-letter-to-the-Media-from-us-Web-Collective

http://www.siasat.pk/forum/showthrea...07#post1483707
​

 

[Raja Farhan Arif]

Whatever happen but I don't want to see Imran khan to make an alliance with PMLN, If it's happen then I will lose my trust on democracy not on Imran khan. I trust on him.
if we can't get a simple majority then I think
PTI+JI or PTI+JI+MQM are the good option, even we are agree to make an alliance with PPP but with noora no way (thumbsdown)

 

[rtabasum2]

You are not counting seats of JI and a big bunch of independents + in Baluchistan , Mahmoud Achakzai party and Balauch national parties, all of them pool together will be about 50, these seats whoever they go with will form GOVT., if both the parties cannot make simple majority. Although I think PTI will have more seats than NOON as the current situation stands

 

[UNFATHOMABLE]

Keep dreaming......in the name of realistic analysis you are trying to sell PML N's agenda....

Imran khan will secure 130+ wait till 11 May

In Pakistan....Trends have always shown that people who are in Government can't form Govt.

very right bro....Realistic analysis now tell that PML-N cannot win more than 30 seats altogether...And if someone doesn't believe this then he has to wait and see the results on 11th may eve.

 

[v r imran k]

120 seats pti inshallah 105 non leage 20 ppp 10 pmlf 4 jui 2 ji seat 3 seat bnp mangal 02 seat jwp qaaaf leagr3 saetm independent 15 seats

 

[Aadmi]

PTI goal is to take majority and form a govt ontheir own, if not than all the crooks can join hand and make govt and we will be very happily sit in opposition

 

[Pinnacle]

Its not 130 seats that PTI needs, the no. of seats required to form government with simple majority is 125. Don't sign off PTI from Balochistan and Sindh with 0 seats. I think if PTI manages to take about 85-90 seats from Punjab, 25 from KPK and around 10 seats from Balochistan and Sindh combined. This should ensure the formation of central government with simple majority and then minorities and women seats are distributed in proportion adding up to about a total of 172 seats which is the required sum required for forming government in center.

Heheheheh... Abay tera baap Sindh aur Baluchsitan say PTI ko 10 seats lay ka day ga?

 

[Pinnacle]

120 seats pti inshallah 105 non leage 20 ppp 10 pmlf 4 jui 2 ji seat 3 seat bnp mangal 02 seat jwp qaaaf leagr3 saetm independent 15 seats

120 Seats Bangladesh say mil sakti hain PTI ko... pakistan say tu bas 40 he hoon gi

 

[Malik Azam]

Very wishful analysis.

PML(N) under disguise.:angry_smile:

 

[Pinnacle]

You are not counting seats of JI and a big bunch of independents + in Baluchistan , Mahmoud Achakzai party and Balauch national parties, all of them pool together will be about 50, these seats whoever they go with will form GOVT., if both the parties cannot make simple majority. Although I think PTI will have more seats than NOON as the current situation stands

Baluch national parties have already made allinace with PMLN DONT count them.
JI will win 6 seats from KPK only.

 

[yasirmaliq]

Baap tau nahin lekin ALLAH Rabulizzat zaroor le ke dega.

Heheheheh... Abay tera baap Sindh aur Baluchsitan say PTI ko 10 seats lay ka day ga?

 

[Pinnacle]

very right bro....Realistic analysis now tell that PML-N cannot win more than 30 seats altogether...And if someone doesn't believe this then he has to wait and see the results on 11th may eve.

PMLN aur bas 30 seats?
Wah yar tum ko tu apna news paper publish karna chahiya coz u do very good analysis!

 

[iftikharalam]

Pti -80-100
pml n - 60-80
ppp 40-50