Pakistan debt, is it really grim as we think. Part-2

[RajaRawal111]

نو پروبلم نادان جی اصل میں چند لوگ جن کے متعلق یقین ہے سوچ سمجھ رکھتے ہیں ان تک جو سچ سمجھتا ہوں پہونچانے کی کوشش کرتا ہوں. اپنے آپ کو مفت میں مثبت سوچ کا ٹھیکدار بنایا ہوا ہے - جب خلاصہ لکھتا ہوں تو پٹواری کہلاتا ہوں کیوں کے سخت جھکڑ کے سامنے میرا جملہ آ جاتا ہے - بہرحال کوئی بات نہیں میں بھی اکنامسٹ نہیں کچھ سمجھنے کی کو شش کر رہا ہوں اور جو سمجھتا ہوں دوسروں تک پہونچانے کی کوشش کرتا ہوں بس - اس سارے مضمون کا خلاصہ میرے مطابق یہ ہے کہ
گلاس آدھا بھرا ہوا ہے آدھا خالی نہیں - ہم مرنے الے نہیں - جو ہمیں آے روز کہا جاتا ہے

لگتا ہے آپ مجھ سے اکنامکس پڑھوا کر دم لیں گے .

کیا ایسا نہیں ہو سکتا کہ ہر بندہ آخر میں اپنی تقریر کا اصل پواینٹ ایک جملے میں آخر میں لکھ دیا کرے ..



:please:

 

[RajaRawal111]

Thank you Shahid Sahib, It means that we should keep waiting for the beast, because due to my in-abilities I am not able to go too deep into this subject, as I dont have time and intentions to write a thesis. However with my fazool nature, I am certain that if I start pulling these factors in I will again not see any death ditch.
Reasons
1: The forex reserves is a floating phenomenon. We have seen IMF topping up our forex reserves so what should I do. The forex from exports will come later in fact quite later. My intention is to see if Pakistan is going to vanish from face of earth before that or not.
2: Current account, I dont know what the heck is it.
3: Growth is what I am most confident as the energy availability will definitely contribute positively. So is how world looking at us. It is just us who are wishing bad for us.

I am not going to make things more complicated, as in reality this means nothing. I just want to satisfy myself which i can do small things as well. I just dont like talking in the air. So if you say it is wrong and we are on death row then so be it. I can at least agree on calling it wrong.

Secondly, you have taken my words on debt to GDP ratio but have discarded 3 other necessary indicators, which are interconnected when appraising an economy.
As you yourself mentioned that USA, Japan and many European countries have a worse debt to GDP ratio than us. So I am sure you and every other reader will understand that debt to GDP ratio alone too does not tell much as no sane person will think that our debt position is better than Japan, USA and Europe. Debt to GDP ratio needs other indicators with it.

(1) Debt to forex reserves
(2) Current account
(3) Growth

An other important factor is the break-up of the debt, that how big percentage of it is a short term debt.

 

[RajaRawal111]

Not trying to argue you wrong, but I have following questions/comments on you thoughts. (In red text)

There are 2 types of debts. Internal and external.
INTERNAL
The internal debt is obviously raised from the federal reserve/state bank etc. Govts usually have a legislated cap on how much they can borrow domestically in a year. (in other words, how much money can the SBP print). Usually govts take a lot of leeway with this.
This directly increases the inflation in the country. I remember PPP govt was doing this at phenomenally high rate, which resulted in the continuous rise in inflation and prices of commodities. Which was not the case in at least last three years. Obviously you can give low oil prices as the main reason which will be right. So far as pirinting money is concerned. US is also printing dollars freely and selling the George Washington picture back to us at 115 Rs. So wher we should go. . ----

EXTERNAL
The external debt is the more important one, because that is where problems arise. Let me first give you Pakistans scenario. Dont know why you have compared Pakistan with US, Japan etc. Pakistan's external debt is almost entirely loan based. We have loans from IMF, World Bank, other international consortium, and foreign govts. These loans come with strict conditions, limited terms, which are routinely renegotiated unfavorably, because we cant pay them in time. Worst of all, they have to be paid back in US Dollars, since that is how we receive them. And because of low forex reserves, that tends to become a problem for us as well occasionally.
Other countries have external loans far far higher than ours. But the nature of those 'loans' is where the difference lies. Japan's majority foreign debt is in the form of investments foreign govts have made into Japan's manufacturing sector, or public debt. So in many cases, countries like US, Japan and China tend to sell off a large chunk of their internal debt to overseas buyers as well, for long term coupons. Pakistan is not in a position to sell its internal debt to outsiders yet. Our sovereign guarantee carries stigmas, rather than pride on its back.
-- Let me try to understand that. Are you saying the investments in the manufacturing industry are the loans for Japan, Us and other developed world. If that is the case than why are we so much worried when the investment is done in the Power sector. The other day I had long discussion with Shahid sahib trying to understand why there was objection on Kanupp 2 and 3. (Anyways it ended up as he was talking their wrong locations not on the loans). Now what China is investing in Pakistan why then there is objection on it and why we are counting them as our debts if developed world does not.
Of course our production is down to dirt because we have finished out Sui reservoir of 4o years in the cars in just 8 years and Musharuf had no plan for it. Why the growth in the power was not fore seen for straight 14 years when PMLN was out. Now when we want to eliminate these problems in emergency we get shouting on the expanicive contracts of LNG and powers projects.

Now how is it that local economists warn us of dire straits, while overseas papers have recently posted positive reviews? Because the local economists know that Pakistan doesnt have a plan B. --- In the past almost 4 years of PMLN rule, we have seen a lot of movement on the infrastructure front...but nothing on the manufacturing side. No new revenue streams have been added. So now what happens when the loans we have taken begin to mature? In order to get the answer to that, rewind back to 1993, and 1999.
In 1993, 2 domestic banks defaulted because of overborrowing and defaults of the PMLN govt.
In 1999, the country defaulted to the IMF twice because of overborrowing, followed by false figures presented to IMF.
---- well these thing are now the ususal sayings. The taken for granted gifts that you people distribute fee to all.
Bad governance --- a phenomenon that can be molded and bent to any direction. It si so malleable that a hajaam cab give a concise lecture on it while he is doing a tind . ----

Right now we are in the exact same situation. Our loans will soon mature, and when it comes time to pay, we will start exhausting our so called forex reserves at the rate of $2 billion every quarter. And it wont take more than a year to empty that 'enormous' reserve Dar claims to have built.
Cant say anything about it and also cannot see it being wright or wrong.

The driving force for any economy is its manufacturing sector. So long as we lag behind in that, we will continue to be burdened with fearful debt situations. We need manufacturing, manufacturing, manufacturing. And by that, I dont mean just improving on what we have. We need new manufacturing sectors.
What are we doing now is trying to eliminate the cause of this loss. Country is now energy starved. 14 years of noing nothing now is being made to eat this govt on its 4 years. Dont you see the progress in this sector. Industry will run if we are able to provide them gas and power. So is it not fair to wait a bit.

[/COLOR]


And by that, I dont mean just improving on what we have. We need new manufacturing sectors.

 

[RajaRawal111]

Munawar Khan I will try to address this issue in the next part when I will try to see where these loans are going. Dont knw how successful I will be as this will be the most difficult to find the data for this.
However I will never defend Noory on their negligence to the health and education. for two reasons.
1: I dont want to be chewed alive by Insafis defending it
2: They are not totally ignoring it but what they are doing is not enough so it can easily be objected.

Raja a very basic question that you forgot to add in the discussion is after all the debts; what do these countries give back to its public.

Free healthcare
Free education
Unemployment benefits
Multiple subsidies
.....

The list goes on. Greece was going bankrupt and still their parliament was fighting on reducing the benefits to the citizen.

What benefit do u get from the Pak govt?

 

[Shahid Abassi]

Thank you Shahid Sahib, It means that we should keep waiting for the beast, because due to my in-abilities I am not able to go too deep into this subject, as I dont have time and intentions to write a thesis. However with my fazool nature, I am certain that if I start pulling these factors in I will again not see any death ditch.
Reasons
1: The forex reserves is a floating phenomenon. We have seen IMF topping up our forex reserves so what should I do. The forex from exports will come later in fact quite later. My intention is to see if Pakistan is going to vanish from face of earth before that or not.
2: Current account, I dont know what the heck is it.
3: Growth is what I am most confident as the energy availability will definitely contribute positively. So is how world looking at us. It is just us who are wishing bad for us.

I am not going to make things more complicated, as in reality this means nothing. I just want to satisfy myself which i can do small things as well. I just dont like talking in the air. So if you say it is wrong and we are on death row then so be it. I can at least agree on calling it wrong.

If you don't want to take in to account the things which are necessary then what is the purpose?
If it is only to satisfy yourself then sure you can do it with the two indicators, per capita debt and debt to GDP ratio without taking other factors in to account. It will show that we are much better and economically stronger than USA,Japan and the European countries.
Can it be possible??


Let me add a few information.

1 - Pakistan's debt is not 74 billion USD as they tell, because it does not include what we owe to China.

2- The main thing is that if a country is earning enough USD to pay back the debt and interest or not. That's what current account and forex reserves show. We are already in deficit of 8-10 billion USD every year.

3- Poor countries' debt is different than that of rich countries. We owe to world bank, IMF etc and have to pay back every year while rich countries' debt is to investors who buy bonds and securities for very long time and when these bonds get matured some other investors come in and buy the same. USA's debt is partly to itself and partly because other countries keep their dollars in reserve.

4- USA , Japan and European countries use 1-5% of their budget to service their debt every year. We use about 36% of our budget on servicing our debt. Today 27% of our budget goes to army and 36% to service our debts. So we are left with only 37% of the budget for salaries and development. Soon that 37% will vanish too when we start servicing Chinese loans.

5- Question is not only about the situation now, it is more about the situation if it goes on to expand as it has in the last 8 years. And we all know that it will.

6- Last but not the least, I repeat point two. We earn dollars through export 21 billion. Pakistanis abroad send 21 billion to Pakistan.
It makes 42 billion dollar earning. Now to pay, we import goods worth 45 billion and will be paying 10 billion on loans. It makes expenditures of 55 billion - A shortfall of 13 billion USD. From where will these 13 billion dollars come from. Ofcourse by borrowing more every year.

PS. All those who think if Imran comes in power, he will stop borrowing, are lying. He has to borrow too but may be with better management he could borrow less.

 

[RajaRawal111]

You may be very right Sohail but I cannot learn all dimensions of economy. I was just trying to grab one end of it to actually understand the beast. And really being not an economist, GDP is the only thing i could understand to compare. So really I have to give up to what you want to say.
And if I can understand it due to its complexity, should I just listen to and believe in the stereo type that we are on our last breaths.

Whole of the article is revolving around what is termed as "GDP Fetishism" (mind you, in economics, fetishism has different connotation). The fact that GDP is in itself quite a deceptive measure of economy has been discussed by different economists, specially over the past decade. The terms circumscribing the definitions of GDP are sometimes so vague is describing the economy of a nation that the French President Sarkozy authorized a research on it. The findings of the paper are very interesting. Though, I cannot post the paper due to some limitations here, but you can see the title and search for it if you can get lucky enough.


Source: http://www.economist.com/news/brief...reasingly-poor-measure-prosperity-it-not-even

 

[RajaRawal111]

Please dont thing I am paagul that keep coming back to this point again and again. I do get worried when I dont see light.
I can understand the concerns you have pointed out. So just in case we go in this way what is going to happen to us. What is worst case Senior if we default.
And what is the solution to it. Would putting IK in Power stop it.

If you don't want to take in to account the things which are necessary then what is the purpose?
If it is only to satisfy yourself then sure you can do it with the two indicators, per capita debt and debt to GDP ratio without taking other factors in to account. It will show that we are much better and economically stronger than USA,Japan and the European countries.
Can it be possible??


Let me add a few information.

1 - Pakistan's debt is not 74 billion USD as they tell, because it does not include what we owe to China.

2- The main thing is that if a country is earning enough USD to pay back the debt and interest or not. That's what current account and forex reserves show. We are already in deficit of 8-10 billion USD every year.

3- Poor countries' debt is different than that of rich countries. We owe to world bank, IMF etc and have to pay back every year while rich countries' debt is to investors who buy bonds and securities for very long time and when these bonds get matured some other investors come in and buy the same. USA's debt is partly to itself and partly because other countries keep their dollars in reserve.

4- USA , Japan and European countries use 1-5% of their budget to service their debt every year. We use about 36% of our budget on servicing our debt. Today 27% of our budget goes to army and 36% to service our debts. So we are left with only 37% of the budget for salaries and development. Soon that 37% will vanish too when we start servicing Chinese loans.

5- Question is not only about the situation now, it is more about the situation if it goes on to expand as it has in the last 8 years. And we all know that it will.

6- Last but not the least, I repeat point two. We earn dollars through export 21 billion. Pakistanis abroad send 21 billion to Pakistan.
It makes 42 billion dollar earning. Now to pay, we import goods worth 45 billion and will be paying 10 billion on loans. It makes expenditures of 55 billion - A shortfall of 13 billion USD. From where will these 13 billion dollars come from. Ofcourse by borrowing more every year.

PS. All those who think if Imran comes in power, he will stop borrowing, are lying. He has to borrow too but may be with better management he could borrow less.

 

[RajaRawal111]

One more thing Shahid sahib, can you please tell us what did it mean to US govt when Obama was aksing to increase borrowing from Congress. I remember we heard the news that Govt was shut twice because congress was not allowing him. were they defaulting or not.

If you don't want to take in to account the things which are necessary then what is the purpose?
If it is only to satisfy yourself then sure you can do it with the two indicators, per capita debt and debt to GDP ratio without taking other factors in to account. It will show that we are much better and economically stronger than USA,Japan and the European countries.
Can it be possible??


Let me add a few information.

1 - Pakistan's debt is not 74 billion USD as they tell, because it does not include what we owe to China.

2- The main thing is that if a country is earning enough USD to pay back the debt and interest or not. That's what current account and forex reserves show. We are already in deficit of 8-10 billion USD every year.

3- Poor countries' debt is different than that of rich countries. We owe to world bank, IMF etc and have to pay back every year while rich countries' debt is to investors who buy bonds and securities for very long time and when these bonds get matured some other investors come in and buy the same. USA's debt is partly to itself and partly because other countries keep their dollars in reserve.

4- USA , Japan and European countries use 1-5% of their budget to service their debt every year. We use about 36% of our budget on servicing our debt. Today 27% of our budget goes to army and 36% to service our debts. So we are left with only 37% of the budget for salaries and development. Soon that 37% will vanish too when we start servicing Chinese loans.

5- Question is not only about the situation now, it is more about the situation if it goes on to expand as it has in the last 8 years. And we all know that it will.

6- Last but not the least, I repeat point two. We earn dollars through export 21 billion. Pakistanis abroad send 21 billion to Pakistan.
It makes 42 billion dollar earning. Now to pay, we import goods worth 45 billion and will be paying 10 billion on loans. It makes expenditures of 55 billion - A shortfall of 13 billion USD. From where will these 13 billion dollars come from. Ofcourse by borrowing more every year.

PS. All those who think if Imran comes in power, he will stop borrowing, are lying. He has to borrow too but may be with better management he could borrow less.

 

[Will_Bite]

This directly increases the inflation in the country. I remember PPP govt was doing this at phenomenally high rate, which resulted in the continuous rise in inflation and prices of commodities. Which was not the case in at least last three years. Obviously you can give low oil prices as the main reason which will be right. So far as pirinting money is concerned. US is also printing dollars freely and selling the George Washington picture back to us at 115 Rs. So wher we should go. . ----

Printing money doesnt automatically increase inflation. If you have a robust manufacturing sector, and a manageable trade difference, then other countries will happily invest in your local debt and help control inflation. 2 years ago, Ishaq Dar sold $1 billion of Pakistan's debt in the form of eurobonds...and was excitedly telling everyone how he managed to raise $1 billion, and how that somehow increased Pakistan's integrity. But he failed to clearly mention that the bonds were sold at 8.25% premium. Compare that to countries like Sri Lanka who have sold their bonds at around 4%....and Japan and US, who sell theirs at under 0.5%. And pls dont compare US to Pakistan. Big mistake.

Let me try to understand that. Are you saying the investments in the manufacturing industry are the loans for Japan, Us and other developed world. If that is the case than why are we so much worried when the investment is done in the Power sector. T.........Now what China is investing in Pakistan why then there is objection on it and why we are counting them as our debts if developed world does not.
Of course our production is down to dirt because we have finished out Sui reservoir of 4o years in the cars in just 8 years and Musharuf had no plan for it. Why the growth in the power was not fore seen for straight 14 years when PMLN was out. Now when we want to eliminate these problems in emergency we get shouting on the expanicive contracts of LNG and powers projects.

Japan's manufacturing sector floats its own treasury bonds, which are scooped up by international lenders. These bonds go for low yields. Last year, Toyota motors floated bonds that paid just 0.001% interest. And those were lapped up by investors, because they know Toyota is the real deal. Compare that to Pakistan's deals. Pakistan govt has signed deals for an average of 30% return on USD with Chinese firms. I am all for investment in infrastructure by foreign investors. But even a fruit vendor can tell you that 30% is not a good deal. And to add to Pakistan's ignominy, Chinese lenders have rejected sovereign guarantees of Pak govt. They have insisted on escrow accounts, which makes these loans even more expensive.
A good investment is where technology is shared, and local equipment and manpower is used. Whereas in all chinese run projects, we see engineers and equipment being imported from China. Are we running out of engineers? I dont think so.

What are we doing now is trying to eliminate the cause of this loss. Country is now energy starved. 14 years of noing nothing now is being made to eat this govt on its 4 years. Dont you see the progress in this sector. Industry will run if we are able to provide them gas and power. So is it not fair to wait a bit.

We are not energy starved. We have plenty of energy. Its just not managed properly. I already said this many times. With oil at around $50/barrel, oil based IPPs are cheaper than gas/coal. But we are still not using IPPs at their peak. Why? because we dont have the grid to hold it.
More importantly, what comes with a party like PMLN is cronyism, corruption and kitchen cabinets. Ishaq Dar makes decisions on who to dispense funds to, not based on actual requirements, but based on political motives, which have nothing to do with the public. Rewind back to 2013, when Dar gave $5 billion the power sector in the name of circular debt, in one go, without any audits, or receipts. This is despite the fact that the IPPs were only actually demanding 30% of that to resume production. But Dar gave up 100% of the payments without due process. Why? dirty politics, nothing else. The auditor general was fired after he demanded to audit the payment. Why? dirty and personal politics. Dar and Sharif are not in it for the country. Their motives are solely targeted towards the 130/140 seats in Punjab that they need to win the NA.

 

[Munawarkhan]

Munawar Khan I will try to address this issue in the next part when I will try to see where these loans are going. Dont knw how successful I will be as this will be the most difficult to find the data for this.
However I will never defend Noory on their negligence to the health and education. for two reasons.
1: I dont want to be chewed alive by Insafis defending it
2: They are not totally ignoring it but what they are doing is not enough so it can easily be objected.

You should not defend Noora's negligence on basic all support for the poor majority of Pakistan (health, educational reforms, police reforms, improvement in local judicial systems, agriculture sector etc.)

& don't do it for what people or parties say here, do it because our nation suffers.

 

[mhafeez]

All loans which Pakistan is taking is going into accounts of Nooras, Zardari and other policans which is again money launderied to the overseas accounts

We have to prove this first.

 

[mhafeez]

Raja a very basic question that you forgot to add in the discussion is after all the debts; what do these countries give back to its public.

Free healthcare
Free education
Unemployment benefits
Multiple subsidies
.....

The list goes on. Greece was going bankrupt and still their parliament was fighting on reducing the benefits to the citizen.

What benefit do u get from the Pak govt?

Actually to give all these from borrowed would be bad move.

 

[akmal1]

لگتا ہے آپ مجھ سے اکنامکس پڑھوا کر دم لیں گے .

کیا ایسا نہیں ہو سکتا کہ ہر بندہ آخر میں اپنی تقریر کا اصل پواینٹ ایک جملے میں آخر میں لکھ دیا کرے ..



:please:

مجھے اکنامکس نہیں آتی مگر راجہ صاحب کی تحریر پڑھ کر ایک لطیفہ یاد آ رہا ہے اور مجھے لگتا ہے کہ وہ خلاصہ بھی بیان کر دے گا

سکھوں کا ملک خالصتان بن گیا تو انکے دانشور بیٹھ کر سوچنے لگے کہ ملک کو ترقی کیسے دی جائے؟ کافی غورو خوض کے بعد یہ تجویز پیش کی گئی کہ دوسری جنگ عظیم میں جرمنی اور جاپان نے امریکا کے خلاف جنگ کی تھی اور ہار گئے اور پھر اسکے بعد انہوں نے ایسی کمال کی ترقی کی کہ دنیا دنگ رہ گئی. لہٰذا ہمیں بھی یہی کرنا چاہیے. ہم نے بھی ہار ہی جانا ہے اور پھر ہم ترقی کر جائینگے. سب سکھ دانشور اس تجویز سے بہت خوش ہوئے اور اتفاق رائے ہو گیا. صرف ایک سب سے بزرگ سکھ خاموش بیٹھا تھا. اس سے پوچھا گیا کہ تسی کی سوچ رئے او؟ تو اس نے کہا کہ "میں سوچ ریاں، جے اسی جت گئے تے فیر"؟

لہٰذا راجہ صاحب کی تجویز بھی کچھ اسی قسم کی ہے کہ یار امریکا جاپان بھارت وغیرہ نے بھی بڑے قرضے لے رکھے ہیں تو ہم بھی قرضوں پہ ہی زور رکھتے ہیں
"ہمیں اکنامکس تو آتی نہیں لہٰذا ہم یہی کہہ سکتے ہیں کہ "راجہ صاحب! جے اسی جت گئے تے فیر

 

[Yahooo]

مجھے اکنامکس نہیں آتی مگر راجہ صاحب کی تحریر پڑھ کر ایک لطیفہ یاد آ رہا ہے اور مجھے لگتا ہے کہ وہ خلاصہ بھی بیان کر دے گا

سکھوں کا ملک خالصتان بن گیا تو انکے دانشور بیٹھ کر سوچنے لگے کہ ملک کو ترقی کیسے دی جائے؟ کافی غورو خوض کے بعد یہ تجویز پیش کی گئی کہ دوسری جنگ عظیم میں جرمنی اور جاپان نے امریکا کے خلاف جنگ کی تھی اور ہار گئے اور پھر اسکے بعد انہوں نے ایسی کمال کی ترقی کی کہ دنیا دنگ رہ گئی. لہٰذا ہمیں بھی یہی کرنا چاہیے. ہم نے بھی ہار ہی جانا ہے اور پھر ہم ترقی کر جائینگے. سب سکھ دانشور اس تجویز سے بہت خوش ہوئے اور اتفاق رائے ہو گیا. صرف ایک سب سے بزرگ سکھ خاموش بیٹھا تھا. اس سے پوچھا گیا کہ تسی کی سوچ رئے او؟ تو اس نے کہا کہ "میں سوچ ریاں، جے اسی جت گئے تے فیر"؟

لہٰذا راجہ صاحب کی تجویز بھی کچھ اسی قسم کی ہے کہ یار امریکا جاپان بھارت وغیرہ نے بھی بڑے قرضے لے رکھے ہیں تو ہم بھی قرضوں پہ ہی زور رکھتے ہیں
"ہمیں اکنامکس تو آتی نہیں لہٰذا ہم یہی کہہ سکتے ہیں کہ "راجہ صاحب! جے اسی جت گئے تے فیر

اس سے اور کچھ ثابت ہوا ہو یا نہ ہو مگر تم نے اپنے آپ کو چول ثابت کر دیا -
بلا شک و شبہ

 

[sensible]

لب لباب یہ ہے کے جب میاں نواز شریف کی حکومت نہیں تھی تب یہ خطرناک ترین مسئلہ تھا.وہ اسے اس وقت قومی غیرت کے خلاف سمجھتے تھے اس قرض کے اضافے کے بغیر بھی
اب جو قرضہ انہوں نے لاد دیا اس کے بعد کے وہ پھٹی ہوئی آواز میں کشکول توڑنے کے دلنشیں نعروں سے قوم کو بے وقوف بناتے رہے. اب میرا بھائی قرضوں کی خوبیاں بتانے کو آ گیا.اب کے الیکشن نوں لیگ قرضوں کے فوائد بتا کر لڑنے کا ارادہ رکھتی ہے؟
ایسا ہے تو مزید قرضے جلد از جلد اپلائی کر دے جائیں.

 

[akmal1]

اس سے اور کچھ ثابت ہوا ہو یا نہ ہو مگر تم نے اپنے آپ کو چول ثابت کر دیا -
بلا شک و شبہ

اس لطیفے سے ایک "چول" سا سبق یہ ہے کہ نقل کیلئے بھی عقل کی ضرورت ہوتی ہے

 

[Munawarkhan]

Actually to give all these from borrowed would be bad move.

Again that's not the point.

They have trade surplus, they can collect taxes easily, they have huge reserves and strong economy. I don't know why they borrow, but I've read about Japan's borrowing system and that's quite interesting. I'm sure they know that they are doing.

 

[نادان]

یعنی یہ کہا جا رہا ہے کہ قرض کی پیتے تھے مے .
امریکہ سمیت ہر ملک قرض لیتا ہے ...
لیکن دیکھنا یہ ہوتا ہے کہ اس قرض سے مے پی جا رہی ہے یا مے بنانے کا کارخانہ لگایا جا رہا ہے ..جو آگے پیسے جنریٹ کرے گا ..اپنا قرضہ بھی اتارے گا ... ملک میں روزگار بھی فراہم کرے گا ..
ورنہ تو صرف ٹن ہو کر بیٹھ رہئیے گا

 

[RajaRawal111]

I think I have to give up on following reasons.
1: You and Shahid sahib know very well that i was not comparing the Pakistan Economy with US and Japan. You know I was talking about the the level of Panic that we spread around compared to level of Panic they spread to their nations.
2: Cant keep up with the examples from all over the places (like toyota example) merely intended to make your point. If we are compelled to sell our loans at higher interest rate, as you said, what other options we have. What cost we will have to pay if we lay nude in front of west to come and do whatever they want to do. I keep repeating this over and over and am ridiculed on this that we will be stripped of our Nuclear assets if we accept cheaper help from west and reject the expensive help from china. Do you say I am wrong here ???. My problem is that what options we have.
3: Third reason is that you people will never let go you corruption, theft and mismanagement slogans. Because it is very easy to sell. You forget that If IK becomes a little bit more stronger in NA he has all the capabilities to put every on on line.

Let me make clear here, what I think and we can close it off here.
1: I know what britain did to Jammal Abdul Nasir just to protect its trade in Suez Canal. I can very well see and admire on the fee life of Iraqis and Libiyans after being liberated from the Corrupt Tyrants. I think I would be better off with the corrupt tyrants.
2: Dont keep saying IPPs capacity is enough to meet the needs. Why were PPP and NS Govt then kept torturing the nation from last 7 years now and Mushuruf for 9 years before them. This is a long subject which cannot be covered with your blanket statement.
3: And if we don't have no other options (which I mentioned in point NO. 1) I would rather encourage doing something compared to doing nothing. Just like zardari did.
4: I do want IK to have more seats and emerge as a real opposition in the NA. Because in that way we will able to benefit from both the progressive PMLN and Honest but good for nothing PTI. How is that ????

Printing money doesnt automatically increase inflation. If you have a robust manufacturing sector, and a manageable trade difference, then other countries will happily invest in your local debt and help control inflation. 2 years ago, Ishaq Dar win the NA.

 

[RajaRawal111]

تم سارے بہت ہی زہین اور سمجھدار لوگ ہو - مسلہ یہاں ا جاتا ہے جب قسم کھا لیتے ہو کہ کچھ سمجھنے کی ضرورت نہیں کہ کوئی کیا کہنا چاہ رہا ہے
میں صرف یہ کیہ رہا تھا کہ تم لوگ اس انتظار میں نے نہ اپنی زندگی گلا لینا کہ یہاں کشتی ڈوبنے والی ہے اور تم سب امرریکا اور برطانیہ بیٹھ کر یہ حسین نظارہ دیکھو گے اور پھر فاتحہ کے لئے وضو کر لو گے - اتنا برا حال بھی نہیں یہاں - ہم سے زیادہ بری شکل میں کچھ اور قومیں بھی ہیں - ان کو دیکھنے والے تم لوگوں
کے طرح سے با وضو ہو کر نہیں بیٹھے ہوے

مجھے اکنامکس نہیں آتی مگر راجہ صاحب کی تحریر پڑھ کر ایک لطیفہ یاد آ رہا ہے اور مجھے لگتا ہے کہ وہ خلاصہ بھی بیان کر دے گا

سکھوں کا ملک خالصتان بن گیا تو انکے دانشور بیٹھ کر سوچنے لگے کہ ملک کو ترقی کیسے دی جائے؟ کافی غورو خوض کے بعد یہ تجویز پیش کی گئی کہ دوسری جنگ عظیم میں جرمنی اور جاپان نے امریکا کے خلاف جنگ کی تھی اور ہار گئے اور پھر اسکے بعد انہوں نے ایسی کمال کی ترقی کی کہ دنیا دنگ رہ گئی. لہٰذا ہمیں بھی یہی کرنا چاہیے. ہم نے بھی ہار ہی جانا ہے اور پھر ہم ترقی کر جائینگے. سب سکھ دانشور اس تجویز سے بہت خوش ہوئے اور اتفاق رائے ہو گیا. صرف ایک سب سے بزرگ سکھ خاموش بیٹھا تھا. اس سے پوچھا گیا کہ تسی کی سوچ رئے او؟ تو اس نے کہا کہ "میں سوچ ریاں، جے اسی جت گئے تے فیر"؟

لہٰذا راجہ صاحب کی تجویز بھی کچھ اسی قسم کی ہے کہ یار امریکا جاپان بھارت وغیرہ نے بھی بڑے قرضے لے رکھے ہیں تو ہم بھی قرضوں پہ ہی زور رکھتے ہیں
"ہمیں اکنامکس تو آتی نہیں لہٰذا ہم یہی کہہ سکتے ہیں کہ "راجہ صاحب! جے اسی جت گئے تے فیر

لب لباب یہ ہے کے جب میاں نواز شریف کی حکومت نہیں تھی تب یہ خطرناک ترین مسئلہ تھا.وہ اسے اس وقت قومی غیرت کے خلاف سمجھتے تھے اس قرض کے اضافے کے بغیر بھی
اب جو قرضہ انہوں نے لاد دیا اس کے بعد کے وہ پھٹی ہوئی آواز میں کشکول توڑنے کے دلنشیں نعروں سے قوم کو بے وقوف بناتے رہے. اب میرا بھائی قرضوں کی خوبیاں بتانے کو آ گیا.اب کے الیکشن نوں لیگ قرضوں کے فوائد بتا کر لڑنے کا ارادہ رکھتی ہے؟
ایسا ہے تو مزید قرضے جلد از جلد اپلائی کر دے جائیں.

Again that's not the point.

They have trade surplus, they can collect taxes easily, they have huge reserves and strong economy. I don't know why they borrow, but I've read about Japan's borrowing system and that's quite interesting. I'm sure they know that they are doing.

یعنی یہ کہا جا رہا ہے کہ قرض کی پیتے تھے مے .
امریکہ سمیت ہر ملک قرض لیتا ہے ...
لیکن دیکھنا یہ ہوتا ہے کہ اس قرض سے مے پی جا رہی ہے یا مے بنانے کا کارخانہ لگایا جا رہا ہے ..جو آگے پیسے جنریٹ کرے گا ..اپنا قرضہ بھی اتارے گا ... ملک میں روزگار بھی فراہم کرے گا ..
ورنہ تو صرف ٹن ہو کر بیٹھ رہئیے گا