Pakistan is nowhere near default. Reserves are at record high. Devaluation will happen but inflation will be in check
It is. I study a a lot on this trust me on this and wait for late september.
How
1) 4.5 billion dollar are safe deposit of Chinese in our 20 billion dollar SBP Reserve. Safe deposit means that it is unusable and cannot used even 1 dollar.
2) 3 billion dollar are of UAE and KSA combine safe deposit.
3) 5 billion dollar swap exchange, which has to be paid maximum in 6 months and cost of this is 5% of it's every 3 months
4) IMF liability is 7.8 billion dollar. Only it will converted into Positive reserve if we complete the whole program ,otherwise it will be taken out within 1 year according to IMF act 2012. That is why PPP never felt after shocks of IMF program ending prematurely other wise it would have been in a same situation.
I am telling you we will get soft default in this late month. Just announce default so that we could avoid paying this all and we will have chapter 11 rights and 5 year grantee. The after shocks will only be for 6 otherwise it will be late September after shocks will be much heavy.