Elections in Canada - Let's hear from all the Pakistani Canadians

[Pak_Passion]

Conservative37.8%-1.2
Liberal26.1%-0.6
NDP23.7%+1.6
BQ7.4%-0.1
Green3.5%+0.1
(3 days ending April 21)
　
　
http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

 

[Pak_Passion]

NDP Surge to Second Place Nationally and First in Quebec as Liberals Stumble, Bloc Collapse

Conservatives Cruising to Victory With 43%Support, NDP (24%) and Liberals (21%) Battle it Out for Second Place

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Toronto, ON A new Ipsos Reid poll on Canada's Federal Election has captured the collapse of the Bloc vote in Quebec that has catapulted Jack Layton's NDP into first place there and second place nationally as the Liberals sink to third place. What this suggests is that with this new political landscape, Stephen Harper's Conservatives may well be headed for a solid majority government while the Ignatieff Liberals may not yet have hit bottom with just over a week to go.
If the election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would receive 43% of the vote among decided voters, up 2 points from two weeks ago. Further, 45% believe that the Conservative Party under Stephen Harper has done a good job and deserves re-election, which, if translated into votes, would likely secure a majority government. Conversely, 49% more closely believe that the Tories do not deserve to be re-elected and its time for another party to be given a chance to govern the country. One in ten (6%) dont know.
Overall, Jack Layton and his NDP are flying high and now find themselves ahead of the Liberals nationally, on the heels of two solid performances at the televised leaders debates, an affable and trusting nature, and policies that are resonating with many Canadians, especially on healthcare. Jack Layton and the NDP would receive 24% support, up 5 points from two weeks ago. This represents the first time in 19 years that the NDP has been in second place, and the first time in 20 years that theyve been ahead of the Liberals in the polls.
Things are looking increasingly dire for Michael Ignatieff and his Liberal Party, who have the support of only 21% of decided voters, down 5 points in two weeks. This is put in context by an Ipsos poll released yesterday which revealed, despite the Liberal leaders assertions that his party is the best and only party to lead on healthcare, Canadians least trust the Liberals and most trust the NDP on that file. The Green Party, led by Elizabeth May, has 4% of the vote.
Support for Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois has collapsed in Quebec, and they no longer hold on to the wide lead they held in the province just weeks ago. They have dropped to 6% nationally, down 3 points, and appear to have lost their stranglehold on the province for the moment.
One in ten Canadians (8%) do not know who they will vote for on Election Day.

A closer look at the regions reveals that:

• In Quebec, a four-way race is developing making it the most competitive province in the country, with many seats up for grabs for all the parties. The NDP (28%) leads narrowly over the Bloc Quebecois (27%), with the Conservatives (24%) and Liberals (20%) closely behind. Support for the Green Party has eroded (0% -- rounded down).
• In Ontario, the Conservatives (41%) maintain a comfortable lead over the Liberals (27%), who are being challenged by the NDP (22%) who are not very far behind. The Green Party sits at 6% support.
• In British Columbia, the Conservatives (46%) still have a healthy lead over the surging NDP (32%), but the Liberals (12%) are struggling to maintain levels of support higher than that of the Green Party (9%).

Recent election events may have begun to capture the interest of more Canadians as 63% now say they are absolutely certain to vote, up 7 points from Ipsos last horserace poll two weeks ago. Among those who say theyre very likely to vote, Conservative support softens slightly to 42% (-1), NDP support strengthens slightly to 25% (+1), the Liberal vote remains unchanged (21%) and Bloc support strengthens to 7% (+1). Support for the Green Party (4%) is also unchanged when examining the vote among those absolutely certain to vote.
Conservative Party support is still the most robust, with 92% of current Tory supporters saying that they are certain (67% absolutely/24% fairly) that this is the party theyll vote for on Election Day. By comparison, nine in ten (89%) NDP voters say the same (49% absolutely/40% fairly), 87% of Bloc voters (56% absolutely/30% fairly), 86% of Liberal voters (45% absolutely/41% fairly), and 85% of those voting for some other party including the Greens (44% absolutely/41% fairly), are certain that this is the Party they will end up supporting on Election Day. The only figure that has changed substantially since two weeks ago is the commitment of Bloc voters with 87% (up 12 points) of supporters saying this is the party they will vote for on Election day (67% absolutely/24% fairly). This suggests that, with the erosion of Bloc votes in the past two weeks, they are getting closer to their figure of core supporters, at which time it will be difficult to dip further in the polls.
Canadians Split on Whether They Prefer Harper Majority or Coalition
Stephen Harpers campaign for a majority has been more vocal in recent days, saying that if he doesnt win a majority government, the opposition will certainly try to take over running the country by means of a coalition. But Canadians are dead split on whether they would prefer a coalition of the Liberals and NDP or a majority government.
Nearly half (46%) would prefer to see Stephen Harper and the Conservatives winning a majority government. If a Harper majority is defined as the ballot-box issue for Canadians, and this proportion of Canadians shows up to vote for a Harper majority, they would certainly earn one with this proportion of the popular vote. The other half (46%) of Canadians, though, would prefer the Liberals and the NDP forming a coalition to take over from Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.
But the story changes, slightly, when the Bloc Quebecois is thrown into the mix. More Canadians would rather see Stephen Harper and the Conservatives winning a majority government (48%) than the Liberals, NDP and Bloc forming a coalition to take over from Stephen Harper and the Conservatives (41%). One in ten (11%) are undecided.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5218

 

[karachiwala]

Exactly the reasons I would not vote for Harper

Siddiqui: Republicans would feel right at home

Published On Wed Apr 20 2011


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By Haroon Siddiqui Editorial Page
Historically, weve defined ourselves as not being American. Weve done so in the context of political governance, not in terms of popular culture a Fox News look-alike is here and CBC-Radios Q keeps inflicting on us Americans peddling their trivia and trash on the Canadian taxpayers dime.
Stephen Harper has Americanized Canada more than any prime minister in memory. Even those who disagreed with Brian Mulroneys free trade agreement with the U.S. never accused him of Americanizing our politics, or even wanting to. What Harper has done, in fact, is to import some of the worst Republican policies and tactics:
Increasing government spending while promising future savings from undefined cutbacks.
Harper has been our most profligate PM. The record deficit ($40 billion) springs mostly from corporate tax cuts ($14 billion a year); wars ($18 billion on Afghanistan); high defence spending, including untendered contracts for arms of questionable value and undetermined price (F-35s, perhaps $18 billion); and jails (at least $9 billion).
Imitating the worlds most dysfunctional penal system.
While crime rates are declining, Harper fans fear. Hes hell-bent on sending more people to jail and keeping them there longer, necessitating more jails we cannot afford to fix a problem that doesnt exist.
This madness drained several state budgets until there was no money for new jails, or even the per diems for private jails. That left no option but to let some inmates go. Deemed too dangerous to be kept out of jail, they proved too expensive to be kept in.
The U.S. has 2.3 million prisoners in a population of 311 million vs. 1.6 million in China out of 1.4 billion. A fifth of American inmates are sexually abused. About 16 per cent suffer mental illnesses. Another 16 per cent are kids under 18. Of the 700,000 released every year, more than half return within three years.
This scandal is of such magnitude that even some of its strongest proponents, such as Newt Gingrich, haverecanted. Yet heres Harper promising to repackage all his failed anti-crime bills into one and passing it in the first 100 days if you grant him his coveted majority.
Worshipping at the altar of guns.
Harper persists in wanting to gut the long-gun registry, despite the near-unanimous support for it by police chiefs across the country.
Ending equity in elections.
Harper wants to scrap the $2-per-vote subsidy that parties get for every vote earned in the last election. His Conservatives have been the most successful at raising private donations $17 million vs. $9 million for the Liberals and $4 million for the NDP.
The American argument for obscenely expensive elections financed by corporate and private donations is that its a form of free speech. It is for the rich who, in turn, dictate the public agenda.
Slicing the electorate into ever smaller components by ethnicity, religion, geography and geopolitics, at the expense of the common good, and showering each with federal largesse $50 million for the riding of Tony Clement, $10 million for the riding of Julian Fantino, $40 million for the riding of Kenora held by a Conservative, and so on.
Whereas governments always favour ridings they want to win, Harpers pork-barrelling is more like congressional earmarks that members use to hold bills hostage for funds for pet projects back home.
Scoffing at, even squishing, scientific and statistical evidence to push pro-business policies (environment) or impose a libertarian view of government (gutting the census, despite a national outcry) or eviscerate evidence of the impact of government policies on citizens (StatsCan economic studies).
Injecting extreme partisanship cutting funding from groups you dont like, turning opponents into enemies and war critics into unpatriotic saboteurs of our troops.
Pooh-poohing democratic politics as bickering that gets in the way of government by decree.
Dodging the national media during elections but courting local/ethnic press for uncritical coverage.
Presidentializing the PMO. There has been, as under Richard Nixon and George W. Bush, an excessive use of executive power to muzzle the cabinet, caucus and civil service. There has also been the invoking of state secrecy and use of the courts to avoid parliamentary accountability and to stymie independent critics and activists.
All this Harper has managed with only a minority government.
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