Ayaz Amir ditched Azaadi March; called Imran and Qadri Bozos :D

[mrk123]

Let them try , if they fail in Dharna they have the option of performing in KPK, change within status quo has not happened in 67 yrs let them shake it to the core if something wilts let it be even if it does not PTI won't be blamed for trying, the pessimist n the drawing room intellectuals will always come up with one excuse or another but nothing practical to jolt the status quo. I disagree them sitting there is a constant pressure on all institutes that is why there is so much opposition against it, if it was law of diminishing return they won't oppose it seems more time goes more status quo forces r opposing it which is a good indicator of its effectiveness. This drunkard n rapist is Kyani mouth piece as revealed by HR in his coulmn today , Talat Hussain HR n AA all r against this dharna caz it is going to bare their mentor Kyani in the end thats why these dogs r unleashed

Woah! Such strong language?

Why is it that these guys are kosher when they are on your side but the moment they criticize your tactics then they are dogs/drunkard/rapists etc.

How is this guy a Kiyani mouthpiece? Or the more relevant question is how is Kiyani relevant in this whole discussion?
AA has been writing columns for years now and I read his columns - does that make him my mouthpiece? I don't count for much but reading
someone's doesn't make the writer someone's mouthpiece.

Now coming back to your argument. As I said that its the right of PTI and IK and for that matter any other citizen of this land of the pure to peacefully protest as
this right is enshrined in the constitution and recognized the world over as a basic human right.

Now, I think its unrealistic on your part to think that a protest like this goes on and that there will be no reaction from the government. After all the protesters are asking for the resignation of the current PM. Its no small ask.

You may not want to see the obvious but this is the perfect example of the law of diminishing returns and is aptly applicable to this dharna or protest.

In the end I am equally, if not more, against the status-quo forces in this country. I know it may sound cliche but I am for Pakistan. I don't care much for any of the politicians and that includes your political idol. I think this country and its people are screaming for positive change but I just hope that we had better leader to tap into the huge potential that exists in the country to affect the change we all crave for.

The problem with IK or TUQ is that they are too much into themselves and give too much credit to themselves. A good leader is who can gauge the situation, the opposition, the circumstances, the benefits, the risks, the downside, etc. of any situation. They need to take stock and find ways to come out of the stalemate. No matter what you may think or want to believe the fact of the matter is that this protest/dharna is not getting more traction and by all accounts is losing steam. You can already tell that TUQ's tone and tenor is changing. If he pulls out then IK would not have much ground to stand on.

The problem is that the sharifs are idiots. They are resorting to stupid tactics but you will see that over a period of time they will stop bothering to respond too. Once the military shows its hand and sends the message that it will not budge and wouldn't put their weight in either camp then basically nothing will happen.
Then TUQ and IK can stay there for eternity and nothing will change. You can only affect change with a popular uprising where you bring out hundreds of thousands if not millions of people out onto the streets as happened in Egypt. There they brought about change, both positive and negative one, with massive numbers and showing that people are with one side of the other. The military takeover was totally unjustified because they were able to bring out a couple of million of people out on the streets just in Cairo. Other cities had huge demonstrations in favor of the military. This provided the military dictator some justification. Earlier in Egypt the people revolted against another despot and showed him the door with bringing out massive numbers of people.

The point is that you can't bring about any significant change with this dharna anymore. If there are some backers in the military even they would back out seeing that there is not much popular support for this dharna.

I can tell you that even if TUQ and IK would have brought couple of hundred thousand people to Islamabad then the equation would have been different.

IK can stay there as long as he wants but any sane person could tell that the longer he stays out there the more he will hurt his cause.

In my opinion they had made some tactical and strategic mistakes right before and after the elections and they are paying for those mistakes now.

 

[rtabasum2]

Woah! Such strong language?

Why is it that these guys are kosher when they are on your side but the moment they criticize your tactics then they are dogs/drunkard/rapists etc.

How is this guy a Kiyani mouthpiece? Or the more relevant question is how is Kiyani relevant in this whole discussion?
AA has been writing columns for years now and I read his columns - does that make him my mouthpiece? I don't count for much but reading
someone's doesn't make the writer someone's mouthpiece.

Now coming back to your argument. As I said that its the right of PTI and IK and for that matter any other citizen of this land of the pure to peacefully protest as
this right is enshrined in the constitution and recognized the world over as a basic human right.

Now, I think its unrealistic on your part to think that a protest like this goes on and that there will be no reaction from the government. After all the protesters are asking for the resignation of the current PM. Its no small ask.

You may not want to see the obvious but this is the perfect example of the law of diminishing returns and is aptly applicable to this dharna or protest.

In the end I am equally, if not more, against the status-quo forces in this country. I know it may sound cliche but I am for Pakistan. I don't care much for any of the politicians and that includes your political idol. I think this country and its people are screaming for positive change but I just hope that we had better leader to tap into the huge potential that exists in the country to affect the change we all crave for.

The problem with IK or TUQ is that they are too much into themselves and give too much credit to themselves. A good leader is who can gauge the situation, the opposition, the circumstances, the benefits, the risks, the downside, etc. of any situation. They need to take stock and find ways to come out of the stalemate. No matter what you may think or want to believe the fact of the matter is that this protest/dharna is not getting more traction and by all accounts is losing steam. You can already tell that TUQ's tone and tenor is changing. If he pulls out then IK would not have much ground to stand on.

The problem is that the sharifs are idiots. They are resorting to stupid tactics but you will see that over a period of time they will stop bothering to respond too. Once the military shows its hand and sends the message that it will not budge and wouldn't put their weight in either camp then basically nothing will happen.
Then TUQ and IK can stay there for eternity and nothing will change. You can only affect change with a popular uprising where you bring out hundreds of thousands if not millions of people out onto the streets as happened in Egypt. There they brought about change, both positive and negative one, with massive numbers and showing that people are with one side of the other. The military takeover was totally unjustified because they were able to bring out a couple of million of people out on the streets just in Cairo. Other cities had huge demonstrations in favor of the military. This provided the military dictator some justification. Earlier in Egypt the people revolted against another despot and showed him the door with bringing out massive numbers of people.

The point is that you can't bring about any significant change with this dharna anymore. If there are some backers in the military even they would back out seeing that there is not much popular support for this dharna.

I can tell you that even if TUQ and IK would have brought couple of hundred thousand people to Islamabad then the equation would have been different.

IK can stay there as long as he wants but any sane person could tell that the longer he stays out there the more he will hurt his cause.

In my opinion they had made some tactical and strategic mistakes right before and after the elections and they are paying for those mistakes now.

Lets see how this thing unfolds Kyani is very relevant remember that I told u so as for him being a rapist the girl came on TV n said so but we hv short term memories and I never was his fan

 

[Respect]

[MENTION=14890]mrk123[/MENTION]

the success of this dharna depends on whether millions of people come too streets, so far there are people coming out but nowhere to the extent of what it should be. IK has done his part he has screamed and screamed and mentioned thousands of times that these parliamentarians are no good and you need to come out and fight for your rights. Ultimately if people do not choose to come out ans sit behind there TV sets than they will have to be blamed, how much more crap are they gonna take.

It is clear as daylight that present leaders performance is below zero.

 

[mrk123]

@mrk123

the success of this dharna depends on whether millions of people come too streets, so far there are people coming out but nowhere to the extent of what it should be. IK has done his part he has screamed and screamed and mentioned thousands of times that these parliamentarians are no good and you need to come out and fight for your rights. Ultimately if people do not choose to come out ans sit behind there TV sets than they will have to be blamed, how much more crap are they gonna take.

It is clear as daylight that present leaders performance is below zero.

Well, its obvious that the masses, though first to complain about corrupt and imbecile politicians, are not interested in bringing about any change.

I have my own theories on why that is but lets leave that for another day.

Now coming back to IK - even a layman and clueless person like myself would have told you on 12 August that it will be very difficult for IK to bring out even 40k people. Now if IK can't see that written on the wall and still gets up there and talks to the growing number of empty chairs and exhorting people to come out and they are ignoring his pleas than you have to adapt. You basically cut your losses and rethink your strategy. You can't do the same thing day in and day out and expect different results.

 

[mrk123]

Lets see how this thing unfolds Kyani is very relevant remember that I told u so as for him being a rapist the girl came on TV n said so but we hv short term memories and I never was his fan

Well, you have told us so many things that I lose track - sorry :-)

I still think that Kiyani is irrelevant as Pasha is or Hameed gul(another of your fav :)).

As for AA being a rapist then I am not sure why he is allowed even close to PTI dharnas. What happened to
the case against him? You know when that case popped up? That was I think right around the time that he was parting or parted ways with PMLn (that is if I am not mistaken - someone please correct me if I am wrong). The story was shot down and had such big holes that you could drive a bus through them. Still I would like to see the justice take it full course and he should be punished if guilty.

As for his writings you don't have to be a fan. It won't change the fact that he made a lot of sense in his recent article :) You can't dismiss the argument he is making just because there is a case against him in a Pakistani court.

 

[Respect]

Well, its obvious that the masses, though first to complain about corrupt and imbecile politicians, are not interested in bringing about any change.

I have my own theories on why that is but lets leave that for another day.

Now coming back to IK - even a layman and clueless person like myself would have told you on 12 August that it will be very difficult for IK to bring out even 40k people. Now if IK can't see that written on the wall and still gets up there and talks to the growing number of empty chairs and exhorting people to come out and they are ignoring his pleas than you have to adapt. You basically cut your losses and rethink your strategy. You can't do the same thing day in and day out and expect different results.

I disagree with the number 40,000 you have given, the day IK got too Islamabad it was around that number maybe even more. The day IK crossed red zone huge amount of people. With IK jalse people come in evenings, and during weekend it is choco block, i can post some videos if you want or you could browse yourself. It did quite down after IK deciding to go outside PM house, but it seems recently he has made a comeback and going back to D chowk has proved successful.
Also I would like to add there is the factor of containers, if you take away the containers i am sure it would even increase more.

My point is that Ik requires millions to hit major cities in Punjab especially Lahore everyday and that is what is not happening.

Anyhow any advice on strategy?

 

[Altaf Lutfi]

Gustakh kehan sahe nahe al batta kazib to wo hai

Agar woh kazib hai tu Allah ki pahunch se door naheen hai aur bhugtay ga. main is behas main du wajah se shamil hua tha. ek tu yeh keh kisi k khilaaf ilzam laganay ki Islam ijazat nai deta balkeh hukam yeh hai keh is ko sabit ka k saza dilwai jaey.choonkeh islami hakoomat ya idaray maujood naheen, is liay zaati taskeen k liay aap islami discipline k bahir kuchh nai kar saktay, apna nuqsaan kar saktay hain. dusari baat yeh keh TUQ zaati taur se jo bhi ho, filhaal tu baat hukamran tabqay ki ho rahi hai. Hazrat Ali K.A.W ne tay kar dia tha keh "yeh mat dekho kaun keh raha hai, yeh dekho keh kia keh raha hai". is irshaad se un logon ka raastah ruk jata hai jo asal maamlay se tawajjuh hatanay ko koi shoshah chala detay hain.

 

[mrk123]

I disagree with the number 40,000 you have given, the day IK got too Islamabad it was around that number maybe even more. The day IK crossed red zone huge amount of people. With IK jalse people come in evenings, and during weekend it is choco block, i can post some videos if you want or you could browse yourself. It did quite down after IK deciding to go outside PM house, but it seems recently he has made a comeback and going back to D chowk has proved successful.

Also I would like to add there is the factor of containers, if you take away the containers i am sure it would even increase more.

My friend, you have every right to disagree with me. I don't claim that I know all. After all we are not reporting from the scene :-) all of us the armchair analysts rely on the media to build our opinions from afar. I admit that I may be completely off but the 40k number is not written in stone. I surmised that it was a good number since most reports mentioned that IK brought 15k people with him and TUQ brought around 25k with him. But that is irrelevant whether the number was 25k or 40k or even 55k. The fact is that its not over 100k or a million or even a quarter or half a million.

My point is that Ik requires millions to hit major cities in Punjab especially Lahore everyday and that is what is not happening.

My point is that unless you bring out significant number of people in Karachi or Lahore a popular movement will never be successful in Pakistan.

The last major mass movement in Pakistan, which was somewhat effective, was in 1977 and it was because it was being carried out in Karachi and Lahore and we had major impact. This protest can't make a significant impact because of the fact that its in Islamabad.

Still I give you that IK had 40k :-)

Anyhow any advice on strategy?

You or I could suggest a strategy if we were privy to all the information that IK has.

Given the lack of relevant information all I would have done would have been to reassess the situation and take what I could get and back off the extreme bargaining position at this time. No matter what, IK himself thinks that early elections are the best option. Whether they are mid-term or just early elections. Even without rigging PMLn would have won Punjab. IK himself admitted that his party was not organized at the grass roots level. One of the reason that there was rigging at the scale that it was. PMLn would have still won - may not have been the clear majority but close to it. Shahbaz Sharif, through his gimmicky governance, had enough people to bought into a PMLn majority.

IK and PTI made some miscalculations (as they still continue to do) during pre and post elections. Like their claim that if there was no rigging then they would have swept Karachi. I think this sheer lack or realism and political/situational awareness has let them down. Even without rigging they wouldn't have won more than 4-6 at the most. Similarly, in Punjab, they may have 20-25 more seats in ideal conditions and thats about it. Everyone agrees that elections in KPK were fair enough. In 2013, the voter in Punjab was going to vote anyone but PPP. It was split between PMLn, PTI and PMLq. If I was a strategist I would do two things. I would use everything in my power (whether you get reforms or not - whether you get rigging investigations or not. No investigations work in Pakistan and nothing positive ever comes out) to bring back the next elections date. May be 2016 or at the latest in 2017. During this time I would have worked hard to build KPK a model province and capitalize on PMLns bunglings in Punjab. Work a little on Karachi. Basically prepare for the next election. For that you have to work on party structure at the local level. Right now IK has pulled everyone away from the jobs that they had to be doing and they are busy in dharna. What if they stay in dharna for next 6 months and there are polls conducted - who do you think will win again?

Anyway, long winded answer - sorry about that. But I think when you realize that doing the same thing is not working out then you try to change track to see if you get different results. Also, there are times when tactical retreat is the best strategy. You rethink, regroup and relaunch.

What I have seen is that on this front IK has been all talk and tall claims. When he realizes that it didn't work out its already too late. Basically I have no hope with IK. He is not a good political leader. He was a good leader for a sports team but in politics and especially in Pakistani politics he still seems like a novice even after 17 years. With his few qualities he has quite a few flaws and he is exposing those flaws right now and in some cases its putting people off.

sorry for the rambling post....its late at night :-)