http://www.riazhaq.com/2013/09/syrian-situation-taliban-talks-indian.html
Can Nawaz Sharif exploit TTP leaders' split on talks offer? Will Obama order US military strike against Syria after chemical weapons attack? Why is Indian rupee falling sharply? How did Zardari do as Pakistan's president?
Syria Chemical Weapons Attack:
I have a strong suspicion that Bashar Al-Asad's forces are responsible for chemical weapons attack outside Damascus. Chemical weapons are not easy to use....especially when it comes to widely dispersing chemical agents for mass casualties like the recent incident in Syria. Such weapons require a level of sophistication usually not present in terrorist organizations like al Qaeda. The only known incident of sarin gas use involving a non-government group Aum Shinrikyo is the 1995 Tokyo subway attack which claimed only 13 lives in multiple releases in 5 different trains....far far lower than the over 1400 dead in Syria recently.
Like Sadam Husain in Iraq, Asad family has a long history of brutalizing the people in Syria. Bashar's father Hafez flattened large parts of Syrian town of Hama and killed its entire population back in 1982. I see what's happening now as a continuation of Hafez's brutal legacy in Syria.
Obama wants to act against Assad for crossing a US red line by allegedly using chemical weapons. But he has a dilemma: Syrian opposition has significant of presence of Al Nusra Front, an Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria which would pose a much more serious threat to US and Israel. Will Obama risk regime change until favorable opposition emerges to replace Asad? Or will Obama just do a token cruise missile strike to send a message to Assad to desist from using chemical weapons again?
Indian Rupee Decline:
India imports about $500 billion and exports only $300 billion worth of stuff, leaving a trade gap of about $200 billion. Much of this deficit had until recently been financed by foreign capital flows into India.
Many investors had been borrowing money in US dollars at extremely low rates to invest their borrowings for higher returns in emerging markets like India. With US economic recovery beginning to take hold, the US Fed has signaled that it may reduce or end its bond purchases of $85 billion a month. As a result of this change, foreign investors are retrenching from the emerging markets to take advantage of better returns in US and frontier markets. This is depleting India's foreign exchange reserves and hurting the Indian rupee.
In contrast to big declines in emerging markets like India and Indonesia, some frontier markets such as the UAE, Bulgaria and Pakistan have returned over 50 percent this year in dollar terms, according to Reuters. Unlike in the big emerging economies, listed companies in Kenya or Pakistan tend to be true plays on the emerging market consumer. Earnings growth estimates for this year have risen sharply almost everywhere to 10-15 percent (versus the 9.8 percent average in emerging markets).
Taliban Split on Talks Offer:
Talks offer by Prime Minister Sharif has caused a significant rift in the Pakistani Taliban leadership. While Punjabi Taliban's leader Asmatullah Muawiya has welcomed the offer, leaders of the Pashtun Taliban have rejected it. The split has become more serious with the Pashtun Taliban's decision to remove Muawiya from his position as the leader of the Punjabi Taliban.
"The Taliban decision making body met under Commander Hakimullah Mehsud and decided that Asmatullah Muawiya has no relation with the TTP," Shahidullah Shahid, spokesman for the Hakimullah Mehsud-led Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), told news agency AFP. In response, Muawiya has told The Associated Press that the Taliban shura had no authority to remove him because the Punjabi Taliban is a separate group. He said his group has its own decision-making body to decide leadership and other matters.
This split among the Taliban leadership should be seen by the Nawaz Sharif government as an opportunity to further divide and eventually defeat the various terrorist groups operating under the banner of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Bye Bye President Zardari:
President Zardari has pursued a policy of reconciliation. He has strengthened democracy and his government's legislative accomplishments are undeniable. Unfortunately, the people of Pakistan have seen their situation deteriorate significantly terms of basics like access to jobs, electricity, water and sense of security. Fruits of democracy have been harvested by the politicians, the judges and the media but remain out of reach of the ordinary people. As a result, the people have dealt a heavy defeat to President Zardari's Pakistan People's Party, and sent him packing.
VPOS Video:
Viewpoint from Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses with Riaz Haq, Sabahat Ashraf, Ali H Cemendtaur situation in Syria, Nawaz Sharif Government’s possible talks with the Taliban, Zardari’s accomplishments as President of Pakistan, and Indian Rupee's decline in the following video:
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http://www.riazhaq.com/2013/09/syrian-situation-taliban-talks-indian.html
Can Nawaz Sharif exploit TTP leaders' split on talks offer? Will Obama order US military strike against Syria after chemical weapons attack? Why is Indian rupee falling sharply? How did Zardari do as Pakistan's president?
Syria Chemical Weapons Attack:
I have a strong suspicion that Bashar Al-Asad's forces are responsible for chemical weapons attack outside Damascus. Chemical weapons are not easy to use....especially when it comes to widely dispersing chemical agents for mass casualties like the recent incident in Syria. Such weapons require a level of sophistication usually not present in terrorist organizations like al Qaeda. The only known incident of sarin gas use involving a non-government group Aum Shinrikyo is the 1995 Tokyo subway attack which claimed only 13 lives in multiple releases in 5 different trains....far far lower than the over 1400 dead in Syria recently.
Like Sadam Husain in Iraq, Asad family has a long history of brutalizing the people in Syria. Bashar's father Hafez flattened large parts of Syrian town of Hama and killed its entire population back in 1982. I see what's happening now as a continuation of Hafez's brutal legacy in Syria.
Obama wants to act against Assad for crossing a US red line by allegedly using chemical weapons. But he has a dilemma: Syrian opposition has significant of presence of Al Nusra Front, an Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria which would pose a much more serious threat to US and Israel. Will Obama risk regime change until favorable opposition emerges to replace Asad? Or will Obama just do a token cruise missile strike to send a message to Assad to desist from using chemical weapons again?
Indian Rupee Decline:
India imports about $500 billion and exports only $300 billion worth of stuff, leaving a trade gap of about $200 billion. Much of this deficit had until recently been financed by foreign capital flows into India.
In contrast to big declines in emerging markets like India and Indonesia, some frontier markets such as the UAE, Bulgaria and Pakistan have returned over 50 percent this year in dollar terms, according to Reuters. Unlike in the big emerging economies, listed companies in Kenya or Pakistan tend to be true plays on the emerging market consumer. Earnings growth estimates for this year have risen sharply almost everywhere to 10-15 percent (versus the 9.8 percent average in emerging markets).
Taliban Split on Talks Offer:
Talks offer by Prime Minister Sharif has caused a significant rift in the Pakistani Taliban leadership. While Punjabi Taliban's leader Asmatullah Muawiya has welcomed the offer, leaders of the Pashtun Taliban have rejected it. The split has become more serious with the Pashtun Taliban's decision to remove Muawiya from his position as the leader of the Punjabi Taliban.
This split among the Taliban leadership should be seen by the Nawaz Sharif government as an opportunity to further divide and eventually defeat the various terrorist groups operating under the banner of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Bye Bye President Zardari:
President Zardari has pursued a policy of reconciliation. He has strengthened democracy and his government's legislative accomplishments are undeniable. Unfortunately, the people of Pakistan have seen their situation deteriorate significantly terms of basics like access to jobs, electricity, water and sense of security. Fruits of democracy have been harvested by the politicians, the judges and the media but remain out of reach of the ordinary people. As a result, the people have dealt a heavy defeat to President Zardari's Pakistan People's Party, and sent him packing.
VPOS Video:
Viewpoint from Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses with Riaz Haq, Sabahat Ashraf, Ali H Cemendtaur situation in Syria, Nawaz Sharif Government’s possible talks with the Taliban, Zardari’s accomplishments as President of Pakistan, and Indian Rupee's decline in the following video:
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