A tactical blunder by PTI which may haunt us after election results

[PakGem]

Even though I dont agree with your take on PTI winning these many seats.

But you have done a commendable work. And it is mostly quite realistic too.

Just a few observations from my sides

1: I think Capt safdar and Mayam Nawaz are not contesting elections anymore. But you have still written them.
2). You should try too continuously update the list based on ground situation and source.
3). I think Ch. Nisar will lose in NA-59

Thanks for the Feedback Bro. I have update NA127 and NA14.

As for the constituencies, I am updating them daily.

 

[LovePK-or-LeavePK]

PTI will be 130+ easily

Actual doesn't matter because whoever wins on election day forms the government and keep the seats by appointing new candidates of their choice.

 

[CallMeAli]

i dont agree with ur theory my friend in interior sindh belong to ppp told me that now ppp have very weak position in sindh GDA IS DAY BY DAY EMERGING A POWERFULL FORCE if us see nawabshah jalsa CLEARY SHOW THAT ASIF ZARDARI HOME TOWN now in danger in badin docter zulifqar mirza is much much stronger sanghar dist pir pagarao group is very strong and nosher froze ghulam mustafa jatoi party is sitrong hold mir pur khas mitari mithi tharpaker pti have shah mehmood qureshi influance ghotki mahar brotheran with GDA evern in larkna seat very good contest between jui rashid soomoro and bialwal bhutto ..so things are not easy to ppp this time in sindh

GDA candidates in Nawabshah (Shaheed Benazirabad distt) won't even get enough votes to claim their security amount back, the seats will go to Asif Ali Zardari, Azra Pechuho, Tariq Masood Arain, Syed Ghulam Mustafa Shah, Ghulam Qadir Chandio, Sardar Khan Muhammed Dahiri. As far as Badin is concerned, it is a backward and neglected region of Sindh where Zulfiqar Mirza settled somewhere in the early 90s and started his sugar mill, he holds some influence to secure one or two seats at best, but he is facing Ismail Rahu, who is the son of a Sindhi national hero, Shaheed Fazil Rahu. Rahu is a respected figure and holds a vast amount of agricultural land in the area. He had won the seat on PML-N ticket in the previous elections but he's in PPP now which means he has almost double support if compared to the 2k13 elections. In Sanghar district, there are Junejos, Jams and Marris. Although some of them are religious followers of the Hur Jamaat(Pir Pagara) but they are politically affiliated with PPP and there is not even a remote possibility of anyone else winning from the district, please keep in mind that Pir Pagara himself belongs to Khairpur district, not Sanghar. Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi has a decent biradari vote but his area of influence has been divided between three constituencies after the new census so it will be a big challenge for him to secure his seats against, Syed Abrar Ali Shah, Sarfaraz Hussain Shah, Sarfaraz Hussain Shah, Mumtaz Chandio and Zulfiqar Behan(son of Rehmatullah Behan, a close friend of the late Pir Pagara). In Mirpurkhas, SMQ's mureeds have a long time affiliation with PPP and he has fought elections from the region before, he one once because he was in PPP and he lost once because he tried his luck from the PTI platform, there is a slight chance of his victory if the Arbabs, Pir Pagara, his own mureeds and the minority community supports him but he is on a national assembly seat which is useless for GDA to form government in Sindh. P.S It is a known fact that SMQ is supporting PPP candidate, ex PM Gillani's son in south Punjab, in exchange for Pir Pagara's support in Thar, Mirpurkhas. Mehar Brothers in Ghotki have been divided between PPP and GDA and they only used to win due to their unity and the amount of money they spent because they don't have much of a biradari vote in the area. As far as Larkana is concerned, BBZ is the son of Benazir Bhutto, even a person with no mind would know that he can't be defeated on his home ground in a free and fair elections, no matter what you do. PPP is not even doing electoral work for BBZ because they know its a sure win for him. Rashid Mehmood's father, Shaheed Khalid Mehmood Soomro, who was recently assassinated in an honor killing and abduction of a Bhutto girl, fought from the same constituency in 2013, he only got 4800 votes that too because he was an avid speaker on nationalist issues and was supported by Sindhi nationalists such as Jeay Sindh. There are a total of 24 districts even if you keep the 5 districts from Karachi apart. GDA does not have the slightest of chance to make a government in Sindh. I'll say it again, there is a lot more effort needed to eradicate PPP from Sindh.

 

[farooqak]

PTI will take 100 seats
FATA + Karachi + Balochistan combination will give them coalition government without Nawaz or Zardari

 

[Will_Bite]

Only 20 independents are in election race, who can be considered as electable, and I dont see more than 15 independents winning after election.
plz see this http://bit.ly/PTIPosition

Maybe so, but I am talking from my own perspective. I feel independents will play a major role in this election, and we will see a lot of surprises. I feel PTI is being a big over confident

 

[cestmoi ✅️]

Maybe so, but I am talking from my own perspective. I feel independents will play a major role in this election, and we will see a lot of surprises. I feel PTI is being a big over confident

shoot for mars, land on moon.... ;)

 

[MrLad01]

100 is most number which Insafian can imagine but actually they will be the third largest force in the parliament again.

yeh kya chawal maari hai APpne ?

 

[v r imran k]

Maybe so, but I am talking from my own perspective. I feel independents will play a major role in this election, and we will see a lot of surprises. I feel PTI is being a big over confident

pti is realy over confidence doing itself blunders lots of pti ideological candidate stand as independent candidate against pti ticket holder example as NA 162 VEHARI pti ayesha nazir jutt stand as independent candidate against pti ticket holder in jehlum also choudry farrukh altaf is weak position NA 68 against independent candidate in jehlum and same in NA 141 okara SAMSAM BUKHARI weak position and shafqat rubera is strong postilion independent candidate

then 12 constituencies where imran khan shah mehmood qureshi stand 5+3 tahir sadiq two seat sheikh rashid two seats 12 seat ..cast vote in national assembly only 04 means 08 vote lost where every vote is very important .i dont think so pti got 137 plus seat in national assembly out of 272 seats