A tactical blunder by PTI which may haunt us after election results

[morpheus]

I have done a rough counting of number of PTI candidates who are fighting on more than one NA and PA seats and here is the estimates
IK 5 NA seats
Pervez Khattak, M Atif, Gandapur one NA and one PA seat
Tahir Sadiq 2 NA and one PA
Ghulam sarwar 2 NA
Sheikh Rasheed 2 NA
Fawad Chaudhry 1 NA and 1 PA
Ahmad Chatha 1 NA and 1 PA
Aleem Khan 1 NA and 2 PA
Mehr Wajid 1 NA and 1 PA
Rai Murtaza 1 NA and 1 PA
Shah Mehmood 3 NA and 1 PA
Khaqwani 1 NA and 1 PA
Jahanzeb Khichi 1 NA and 1 PA
Khushro Bakhtiyar 1 NA and 1 PA

There may be others that I have overlooked and may a mistake or 2 in this list but the big question is that this will give a big hole in the seat count of PTI as atleast 10 seats has to be vacated both in NA and PAs

Suppose even if PTI manages to win 100, the actual count will be 90 or thereabouts

How on earth can we get to thy magical figure of 136 ?

Can anyone throw a light on y PTI overdid it like in case of tahir sadiq or aleem khan etc

And what will be the constitutional implications , like if we take 10 seats out of the equation, will the figure be reduced to 131? ( keep the women seats out in calculating)

 

[Landmark]

باقی آپ سمجھدار ہیں۔

I have done a rough counting of number of PTI candidates who are fighting on more than one NA and PA seats and here is the estimates
IK 5 NA seats
Pervez Khattak, M Atif, Gandapur one NA and one PA seat
Tahir Sadiq 2 NA and one PA
Ghulam sarwar 2 NA
Sheikh Rasheed 2 NA
Fawad Chaudhry 1 NA and 1 PA
Ahmad Chatha 1 NA and 1 PA
Aleem Khan 1 NA and 2 PA
Mehr Wajid 1 NA and 1 PA
Rai Murtaza 1 NA and 1 PA
Shah Mehmood 3 NA and 1 PA
Khaqwani 1 NA and 1 PA
Jahanzeb Khichi 1 NA and 1 PA
Khushro Bakhtiyar 1 NA and 1 PA

There may be others that I have overlooked and may a mistake or 2 in this list but the big question is that this will give a big hole in the seat count of PTI as atleast 10 seats has to be vacated both in NA and PAs

Suppose even if PTI manages to win 100, the actual count will be 90 or thereabouts

How on earth can we get to thy magical figure of 136 ?

Can anyone throw a light on y PTI overdid it like in case of tahir sadiq or aleem khan etc

And what will be the constitutional implications , like if we take 10 seats out of the equation, will the figure be reduced to 131? ( keep the women seats out in calculating)

 

[mhafeez]

100 is most number which Insafian can imagine but actually they will be the third largest force in the parliament again.

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

I have done a rough counting of number of PTI candidates who are fighting on more than one NA and PA seats and here is the estimates
IK 5 NA seats
Pervez Khattak, M Atif, Gandapur one NA and one PA seat
Tahir Sadiq 2 NA and one PA
Ghulam sarwar 2 NA
Sheikh Rasheed 2 NA
Fawad Chaudhry 1 NA and 1 PA
Ahmad Chatha 1 NA and 1 PA
Aleem Khan 1 NA and 2 PA
Mehr Wajid 1 NA and 1 PA
Rai Murtaza 1 NA and 1 PA
Shah Mehmood 3 NA and 1 PA
Khaqwani 1 NA and 1 PA
Jahanzeb Khichi 1 NA and 1 PA
Khushro Bakhtiyar 1 NA and 1 PA

There may be others that I have overlooked and may a mistake or 2 in this list but the big question is that this will give a big hole in the seat count of PTI as atleast 10 seats has to be vacated both in NA and PAs

Suppose even if PTI manages to win 100, the actual count will be 90 or thereabouts

How on earth can we get to thy magical figure of 136 ?

Can anyone throw a light on y PTI overdid it like in case of tahir sadiq or aleem khan etc

And what will be the constitutional implications , like if we take 10 seats out of the equation, will the figure be reduced to 131? ( keep the women seats out in calculating)

Once the results will be out it will be party's decision as to which seat one member will keep which one they leave. So for those fight on PA + NA is not big issue. E.g. if NA numbers are not enough they will all keep their NA seats and relinquish PA seats. If numbers are enough in NA then PA numbers will define which one they want to keep which they want to loose.
One benefit of that will be that these victories will be counted as victories at first instance however voting power for PM election will be reduced. Suppose if Imran Khan wins all his total seats counted with PTI victory will be 5 but Imran can cast only 1 vote, what will happen is it will amplify actual number of NA seats and hence easy to attract independents and form govt. Then Zimni elections are always won by the party in government!

 

[Will_Bite]

Suppose even if PTI manages to win 100, the actual count will be 90 or thereabouts

How on earth can we get to thy magical figure of 136 ?

Can anyone throw a light on y PTI overdid it like in case of tahir sadiq or aleem khan etc

And what will be the constitutional implications , like if we take 10 seats out of the equation, will the figure be reduced to 131? ( keep the women seats out in calculating)

PTI cannot get to 137 on its own. PTI may not get anymore than 90 or 100 seats. PMLN will get around 60, and PPP around 40. Rest will go to smaller parties and independents. My guess is that there is a bigger likelihood of PPP+PMLN+kachra coalition govt than PTI coalition.
Whatever it may be, it will be a very weak govt, and is liekly to fall sooner rather tahn later.

 

[PakGem]

Bro, You are looking at it from the wrong side. Leaders like Khan are made to contest elections from the constituencies like Karachi or Fata as they can create a wave for the whole region and help winning many more seats.

These Seats will be taken again by whoever takes majority in the parliment, as simple as that.

 

[PakGem]

I have done a rough counting of number of PTI candidates who are fighting on more than one NA and PA seats and here is the estimates
IK 5 NA seats
Pervez Khattak, M Atif, Gandapur one NA and one PA seat
Tahir Sadiq 2 NA and one PA
Ghulam sarwar 2 NA
Sheikh Rasheed 2 NA
Fawad Chaudhry 1 NA and 1 PA
Ahmad Chatha 1 NA and 1 PA
Aleem Khan 1 NA and 2 PA
Mehr Wajid 1 NA and 1 PA
Rai Murtaza 1 NA and 1 PA
Shah Mehmood 3 NA and 1 PA
Khaqwani 1 NA and 1 PA
Jahanzeb Khichi 1 NA and 1 PA
Khushro Bakhtiyar 1 NA and 1 PA

There may be others that I have overlooked and may a mistake or 2 in this list but the big question is that this will give a big hole in the seat count of PTI as atleast 10 seats has to be vacated both in NA and PAs

Suppose even if PTI manages to win 100, the actual count will be 90 or thereabouts

How on earth can we get to thy magical figure of 136 ?

Can anyone throw a light on y PTI overdid it like in case of tahir sadiq or aleem khan etc

And what will be the constitutional implications , like if we take 10 seats out of the equation, will the figure be reduced to 131? ( keep the women seats out in calculating)

Check file compiled by me. It will help you put things in the perspective,

http://bit.ly/PTIPosition

PTI is very much in the position to take 137 seats on it's own. You can reffer back to my post after the elections.

 

[morpheus]

In a very closely faught election each seat counts, we will need the number 136 PM elections, if we loose 10 seats just bcoz we obliged so many individuals it’s a blunder
Even in PA Punjab , we will be counting number of seats to make CM but we will loose MPs but the impact will be greater in NA
I can understand IK fighting from 5 but Aleem Khan 3 and Tahir Sadiq 3? What the hell?
We had proper candidates to cover in all these constituencies, even if we had to oblige them , there family member could have got the tickets but not themselves

 

[arafay]

PTI will win 120 NA seats. Nangi league will get about 60.

 

[bik74]

I have done a rough counting of number of PTI candidates who are fighting on more than one NA and PA seats and here is the estimates
IK 5 NA seats
Pervez Khattak, M Atif, Gandapur one NA and one PA seat
Tahir Sadiq 2 NA and one PA
Ghulam sarwar 2 NA
Sheikh Rasheed 2 NA
Fawad Chaudhry 1 NA and 1 PA
Ahmad Chatha 1 NA and 1 PA
Aleem Khan 1 NA and 2 PA
Mehr Wajid 1 NA and 1 PA
Rai Murtaza 1 NA and 1 PA
Shah Mehmood 3 NA and 1 PA
Khaqwani 1 NA and 1 PA
Jahanzeb Khichi 1 NA and 1 PA
Khushro Bakhtiyar 1 NA and 1 PA

Few are fine ... such as IK, SMQ. Few are not... such as Fawad Ch, Tahir Sadiq......

 

[v r imran k]

I have done a rough counting of number of PTI candidates who are fighting on more than one NA and PA seats and here is the estimates
IK 5 NA seats
Pervez Khattak, M Atif, Gandapur one NA and one PA seat
Tahir Sadiq 2 NA and one PA
Ghulam sarwar 2 NA
Sheikh Rasheed 2 NA
Fawad Chaudhry 1 NA and 1 PA
Ahmad Chatha 1 NA and 1 PA
Aleem Khan 1 NA and 2 PA
Mehr Wajid 1 NA and 1 PA
Rai Murtaza 1 NA and 1 PA
Shah Mehmood 3 NA and 1 PA
Khaqwani 1 NA and 1 PA
Jahanzeb Khichi 1 NA and 1 PA
Khushro Bakhtiyar 1 NA and 1 PA

There may be others that I have overlooked and may a mistake or 2 in this list but the big question is that this will give a big hole in the seat count of PTI as atleast 10 seats has to be vacated both in NA and PAs

Suppose even if PTI manages to win 100, the actual count will be 90 or thereabouts

How on earth can we get to thy magical figure of 136 ?

Can anyone throw a light on y PTI overdid it like in case of tahir sadiq or aleem khan etc

And what will be the constitutional implications , like if we take 10 seats out of the equation, will the figure be reduced to 131? ( keep the women seats out in calculating)

your point is valid but who managed all this .another porblem is GDA pti alliance GDA in sindh 40 seat if after election GDA alliance any ohter group then waht ill happend pti done so many blunders ..i dont think so pti ill win in this case

 

[Pakistan2017]

In any case, PTI will have to form a coalition government with Independents and South Punjab Alliance, may be few GDA.

 

[hassan.te]

100 is most number which Insafian can imagine but actually they will be the third largest force in the parliament again.

Forget the numbers, its not on your table right now. just tell us how you feel still shamelessly defending a certified thief

 

[CallMeAli]

your point is valid but who managed all this .another porblem is GDA pti alliance GDA in sindh 40 seat if after election GDA alliance any ohter group then waht ill happend pti done so many blunders ..i dont think so pti ill win in this case

You clearly don't know the dynamics of interior Sindh. GDA is not even in the position to win 10 seats. They made a political blunder by forming an electoral alliance with Muhajir Quomi Movement, MQM's manifesto mentions dividing Sindh into two different provinces and no Sindhi speaking person would support that, so its a clear win for PPP in Sindh. Maybe Zulfiqar Mirza, Pir Pagara and Ali Gohar Mehar win a PA seat each but that won't be enough to form provincial government. Lots of work needs to be done if you plan to eradicate PPP from Sindh. GDA is a party of Waderas, Jagirdaars, Sardars, Mirs and Pirs, they are not a suitable enough alternative for the Sindhis.

 

[v r imran k]

You clearly don't know the dynamics of interior Sindh. GDA is not even in the position to win 10 seats. They made a political blunder by forming an electoral alliance with Muhajir Quomi Movement, MQM's manifesto mentions dividing Sindh into two different provinces and no Sindhi speaking person would support that, so its a clear win for PPP in Sindh. Maybe Zulfiqar Mirza, Pir Pagara and Ali Gohar Mehar win a PA seat each but that won't be enough to form provincial government. Lots of work needs to be done if you plan to eradicate PPP from Sindh. GDA is a party of Waderas, Jagirdaars, Sardars, Mirs and Pirs, they are not a suitable enough alternative for the Sindhis.

i dont agree with ur theory my friend in interior sindh belong to ppp told me that now ppp have very weak position in sindh GDA IS DAY BY DAY EMERGING A POWERFULL FORCE if us see nawabshah jalsa CLEARY SHOW THAT ASIF ZARDARI HOME TOWN now in danger in badin docter zulifqar mirza is much much stronger sanghar dist pir pagarao group is very strong and nosher froze ghulam mustafa jatoi party is sitrong hold mir pur khas mitari mithi tharpaker pti have shah mehmood qureshi influance ghotki mahar brotheran with GDA evern in larkna seat very good contest between jui rashid soomoro and bialwal bhutto ..so things are not easy to ppp this time in sindh

 

[Mirza Marjana]

Check file compiled by me. It will help you put things in the perspective,

http://bit.ly/PTIPosition

PTI is very much in the position to take 137 seats on it's own. You can reffer back to my post after the elections.

Dear Bro..

what are the winning probability of the seats which are in fight status........ are there any chances to win seats from fight constituencies ???

secondly there are 40 seats from south punjab, i gues these are out of 44 seats..... these to much over estimated in my opinion.
3rdly,, shahbaz shareef can win from swat,, is he in position to win that..

lastly,, what are info criteria, your calculation based on ?

 

[morpheus]

More like a wish list, in which even hamza shahbaz seat in not safe pmln
Let’s be realistic, pti will do very well if it can win 80 seats in Punjab , 70 will be par number and 60 will make them struggle to form NA govt, unfortunately according to my knowledge we are looking at 60 as of now
And even IK campaign is not targeting south Punjab as such where there is good chance of healthy majority

 

[morpheus]

I don’t think GDA can make substantial gains in interior Sindh, although I believe cracks will appear in ppp on some seats
Politics in Sindh needs a strong and fresh Sindhi face , like Mustafa kamal for Karachi, as IK has failed to make any impact on interior Sindh

 

[Mirza Marjana]

More like a wish list, in which even hamza shahbaz seat in not safe pmln
Let’s be realistic, pti will do very well if it can win 80 seats in Punjab , 70 will be par number and 60 will make them struggle to form NA govt, unfortunately according to my knowledge we are looking at 60 as of now
And even IK campaign is not targeting south Punjab as such where there is good chance of healthy majority

you are looking at wrong number of 60...... it will between 90 to 100..............

 

[karachii]

100 is most number which Insafian can imagine but actually they will be the third largest force in the parliament again.

Achaa we taught k dhandli ho rahi hai....