1 Question for PTI - Imran trash talks IMF & World Bank but his budget suggests otherwise

[Zindabad4u]

well good as raised by to get clear answer its very hard even from IK ..... its just like OBAMA hope.... put every thing on hope.....anyways pakistan is running on hope (cry)(cry)(cry) WHEN all the politician are corrupt, criminal police, fake degree judges etc..... still country running i still 9th wonder of the world :13::13::13:

 

[ahsanuck]

I agree with you that a collective participation is really needed to expect some change but leaders always play a decisive role in leading the country towards real prgress & development...if leader doest not have own creative vision but only hired expert opinions then what we can expet, is happening since long time and would remain same with excuses.... listen this at least you can get an idea of leadership practical vision..

QUOTE=AsifAmeer;1009839]Pakistan needs alot more than 1 leader. If this country expects to see change, every single person has to think and sacrifice per their ability. Check ur inbox.[/QUOTE]

 

[Nice2MU]

Totally crap post.. IK have mentioned 100 times how he is going to generate money by increasing tax brackets on rich people, reduce corruption and cut spending.. But paid people probably do not even listen to him or intentionally ignore just to promote Noora leagure & PPP agenda. They do not realize if same people comes back, their children future will be dark. For the sake of our generation, even if you believe IK will not do any good, still give him a chance, you have at least tried others and nothing good has happened.

If this guy didn't listen the Loud voices of IK and Asad Umar then how can he listen your low voice man?

Before writing this post, he has closed his ears with cotton plugs, eyes with bandage and had already made his mind so it is useless to shout before him. He behaves like a deaf rather like a dictator that whatever he has said is final and all the arguments will be thrown into trash. So stop it.

 

[AsifAmeer]

Glad you responded.

Suppose PTI goes for local financing with double digit inflation. How is the private sector going to compete?

Also, how would that be any different from the current Govt?
http://www.finance.gov.pk/fiscal/jul_jun_2011_12.pdf

Honestly yaar. That same Economic report stated the current Govt is running a 8.4%. Is it? Just add those numbers. Back of the envelope gives me 6.3% or $13.3 billion. I am stating figures in dollars to avoid distortions of growth in M2 and reverse-repos by the SBP.

So the current govt sits at $13.3 billion and PTI is suggesting $9.5 billion. Thats their aim.

Ali, dont take me as a supporter of PPP or PML. This basturdization of Pakistani politics has caused enough problems already. I just dont want to see PTI take that route of speaking something while saying something.

Unlike some here who think a country can be run on Emaan while keeping their cages unlocked. I feel time has passed for Pakistan for soft solutions. Correct solution be implemented quickly and be done with the pain. I understand the pain will be SEVERE. I am a student of Wiemar's History. I understand the pain that will cause Pakistan lekin its far far better than the dragging pain which will warp the mindset of generations to come!

I dont work in the financial sector for anyone anymore. I have made my what Nassim Taleb calls "fcvk you" money. Done with Intellectual prostitution.

Dear Asif

I wonder why you put this post here because you could discuss this with PTI economic committee , however as It was mentioned by Asad during presentation and its well known fact that the deficit reduction is often not without pain, Therefore we cut the deficit over a few fiscal years keeping in mind global economic conditions.

About your question the how the 4.5% deficit would be funded, I think there is a Bond market if you remember? IMF and World bank are not for normally lending, they are for bailouts, I wonder if I need to tell you the difference between a bailout and Deficit/debt financing I think you were working in Investment banking??, I might be wrong.

Most of the countries adopt smooth, so Inshallah we would.

 

[Just_one]

So you want PPP and PMLN in power that again that has almost destroyed Pakistan? That's not an option.

At least PTI will be better than them - a lot better - even if it's nto your ideal government.

So that's the answer for people like you and that's how PTIans should respond - no need to indulge in dialogue with lame supporters of PPP and PMLN who don't have the backbone to profess their political affiliation openly but to these corrupt parties and indirectly spread doom and gloom (which has been created by PMLN and PPP).

PTI is the only option in the current scenario. It's may not be best, ideal, but it's a lot better. Period.

 

[tz00007]

Mein sirf itna keh raha houn that Imran should come clean and level with the people in an honest way. Either balance the budget, if not, then he should go out in the public and claim "We will kick out the IMF"

He is lying! You dont have a problem with that?

i recommend u watch pakistan tonight where he invited asad umar and jehangir tareen... n asked similar question..

i think ur misunderstanding what imran says.. he says no to "american aid" mostly...coz that aid comes with lots of strings.. yes he is also against IMF loans...but he never sed the words that u say.. i guess u cant call him liar.. he is a leader..n his vision is to get rid of loans and aids..

 

[zhohaq]

Mein sirf itna keh raha houn that Imran should come clean and level with the people in an honest way. Either balance the budget, if not, then he should go out in the public and claim "We will kick out the IMF"

He is lying! You dont have a problem with that?

Do you have a citation on "We will kick out IMF"....You are taking him too literally...In broad outlines he is saying that we need to get out of debt trap. You seriously didnt think he meant AT ONCE.
But priorities are unemployment,growth,increase Health/Education spending,Security not Deficit cutting for the sake of Deficit cutting.
With a large undocumented economy and as the SBP has noted in its recent cut in the interest rate, you need to throw out rigid adherence to economic theories. This gives any government considerable leeway.
See how the country hasnt burnt to the ground under Zardari Harikiri regime.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/420388/...hy-the-banks-probably-hate-the-sbp-right-now/

In a little-noticed working paper written by four SBP economists, the central bank essentially argues that prices in Pakistan change far too rapidly for monetary policy to have any meaningful impact. Price “stickiness” is a key assumption in macroeconomic models that call for inflation to be curbed through interest rates. If that assumption does not hold – and the data from the SBP study suggests it certainly does not hold in Pakistan – then the State Bank might as well cut interest rates to try to stimulate growth.

Here is the paper that is being refered to.
http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/wpapers/2012/wp44.pdf
http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/wpapers/2012/wp52.pdf

As for dishonesty, he is the only Pakistani politician that is saying the prudent things:
More taxes (Wealth,Income,Agricultural tax,Capital gains, transaction instead of VAT or GST i.e more progressive tax system)
Govt Austerity in some areas (Money will be redirected into spending in Education and Health)
Key investments in Energy
Taking politics out of buisness.
Security etc to Increase FDI.

As for Balance the budget if you look at his economic team they are basically middle of the road Kenysians types. IK is ideologicallly agsint Neolibralism,Supply side economics and the Austrian School economics. What would you expect. As I said earlier your disagreement is primarily doctrinal.

Here is Azeem Ibrahim(PTI) on the British deficit, you can see the skeleton of PTI economic policy in his prescription
http://www.azeemibrahim.com/?p=1484

Another shortcoming of politicians is their manipulating of facts and figures to suit their ends. As John Redwood commented in his Diary on October 6th: “Having an intelligent economic discussion on how to fix the UK is not made easy by a refusal of most commentators and politicians to work from the actual figures.”
While prime minster David Cameron would like to blame the previous Labour government for overspending by 428 billion, he has failed to remind the public that his government plans to borrow another 480 billion over the next five years.
This does not look like a deficit-cutting strategy at all and it is difficult to see how the government is in fact paying down the nation’s credit card, as Cameron professes.
The combination of halting economic growth and increasing public borrowing and spending is hardly a recipe for growth and recovery. Cutting essential frontline services to pay for interest on bank bailouts is not going to help anyone but the banks.
The coalition should be concentrating their thinking on a growth strategy based on promoting entrepreneurship and small and medium businesses, the real engines of growth and the biggest job creators in the country. But the problem remains of how to stimulate demand and confidence as there will be little incentive to expand a factory or take on new staff if the orders are simply not there.
Confidence would be bolstered if the government could restrain public spending and maintain even a slow but sustainable growth rate, as a poor recovery is better than no recovery at all.
After the traumatic events of the last three years, the UK economy needs a credible plan for reducing the deficit, grounded in reality-based forecasts for growth, making the necessary decisions about where spending cuts will actually be made, and also, most likely, introducing additional tax increases for a period of five or more years.
But just how fast can the economy expand after the traumas of the past three years?
Michael *****, an economist at Barclays Wealth, has estimated that as much as 7.5% of Britain’s potential output has been lost, making recovery a longer, slower climb. The country’s economic future will certainly be less spectacular than the pre-recession gilded age, and after those excesses, as a recent article in the Economist suggests, “a period of private sobriety and public austerity may prove to be no bad thing”.
Meanwhile, the crisis in the eurozone has added an alarming undercurrent to the UK’s non-recovery, further threatening the country’s export market and shaking the financial sector.
Economic thinktanks have been busily providing suggestions for this uncertain new world, but so far no convincing alternative has been put forward to replace our existing battered markets.
In the eurozone, all leaders have come up with to date is ‘a plan to have a plan’ and. in the meantime, attitudes to wealth, poverty, taxation, politics and government have all been opened up to discussion and debate – as well as protest and dissent – with no real end in sight.

On PTI and IK he goes:
http://www.azeemibrahim.com/?p=1465
So you see this fellow is a unabashed Kenysian holding out in the University of Chicago of all places.
IK is clearly taking his advice.

A man who understands this well and is emerging as a powerful leader for a new Pakistan is Imran Khan, visionary, philanthropist and pious Muslim. Derided by his detractors for his colorful past as celebrity cricket player, Imran Khan has recently had another book published, which reveals a man of powerful insights and pragmatic solutions to Pakistan’s internal problems. At the same time, he sees the need to restore Pakistan’s international standing while tackling the immediate problems of over 15% unemployment. Pakistan’s economy needs to be stabilized and made more immune to internal and external shocks. Job creation and poverty reduction are needed to get Pakistan out its current stagnation and Khan is very aware that young people in Pakistan, as all over the Middle East, are impatient for opportunity and change.
Imran Khan for president is a phrase that will be heard increasingly from now on, as corruption and political instability continue to erode confidence in the government. Reduction in business confidence, deterioration of economic growth, reduced public expenditures and poor delivery of public services are all undermining Pakistan’s democracy. The domination of the military in politics and a disregard for the rule of law and order are destabilizing Pakistani society and encouraging the rise of militant Islamic political parties. If ever Pakistan needed a firm, wise, pragmatic and moral leader, it is now. The world will be watching Imran Khan’s campaign for the Presidency with admiration for his courage and great hope for the future for the people of Pakistan.

Sovereign Debt crisis in Pakistan wont be as peaceful as in Iceland or Argentina. Expect currency freefall and the economy seizing up especially the power sector. Expect a reign of terror in the Frech tradition.
We may still have (Hopefully in this PPP reign).

 

[UKPakistani]

I dont work in the financial sector for anyone anymore. I have made my what Nassim Taleb calls "fcvk you" money. Done with Intellectual prostitution.

Do not take this the wrong way,

but so what now, make more ?

Or do something however big or small for your fellow man
and in particular Pak for which you obviously have an affiliation.

Pakistan is desperate for talented educated young people,

motivated by more than financial gain

Do you fit the bill ?

 

[AsifAmeer]

I wanna say BINGO but you've already written that.

And you are 100% right! $10 billion is change money if LAND is taxes. You read what i shared? That way these waderas cant lock up sq miles of farm land for years without producing anything. And notice the incentive structure of the tax prosecutors where they have a financing incentive directly tied to the size of the fraud!

Is k ander I see one more plus side. Rupee will start to appreciate because there WONT be a NEED for deficit financing. And when rupee appreciates against the dollar, your local purchase power increases.. See that?

Congrats my friend.. You are now an Austrian! lol

Bingo,

$10 bill is not so large for any Gov which can manage that

Land itself, ie you are taxed on land you own and occupy, or
say a Factory or workshop or a processing plant of some sort which is let out

or just an agricultral tax,
ie on what you produce and how much,
as opposed to how much land you own and earn from it


or both

Either way $10 billis easy to overcome in a Country the size of Pak

PS Some folk in the UK are still big on JMK, in view of our current economic "plight"

 

[FahadBhatti]

Sir , PTI is all based on hypothesis and lies. This will happen and this will happen. Won't depend on IMF and their policy is all based on deficit budget which has to come from imf and world bank. Another lie on top of tons of others.

 

[KK YASIR]

I honestly want Asad to lead this Political party. He is a no BS guy. I have a problem with Imran. He needs to speak less and listen more.

Imran Khan ne Aik Heera Select kia aur aaj app keh rahey hain k Mujhy Heera pasand hai unsey select kerne wala nahin... How Strange ..... just waite abhii IK esey Hazaroon Diamond isi Pak Sar Zameen se Chun Chun ker Nikaley ga .. InshaAllah

 

[malcolmx]

Why do assume stuff even before PTI is in power. For me, even if these goals are not met, I am sure that country will fare much better then any of the other contenders. You also trash talk, assume stuff.

Do provide some other options to us also, like should we vote for Jamaat-e-Islami or PML-N?
Otherwise I don't really see the point of this trash talk...

 

[malcolmx]

Imran Khan ne Aik Heera Select kia aur aaj app keh rahey hain k Mujhy Heera pasand hai unsey select kerne wala nahin... How Strange ..... just waite abhii IK esey Hazaroon Diamond isi Pak Sar Zameen se Chun Chun ker Nikaley ga .. InshaAllah

The day IK leaves PTI, PTI will be tasting dust. It is like saying since Wasim Akram is a better bowler then IK, he should have captained Pakistan...

 

[AsifAmeer]

Isse kehte hain REPLY! You explain your point of view with examples/facts/quotes. I see it, and I understand what you are trying to say. After reading this, I would say that I see your point. My issue is more of a philosophical than intellectual. Its beyond honesty here.

I called IK a liar (which it almost hurts to write because I too like this guy). Been to his gathering every time he has headed to dallas. Called him a liar more for the shock value. Lekin there is a bit of truth in it. You cant have a deficit above GDP growth and not expect pressures to build somewhere!

Ya to keh de k we are gonna go and beg to the IMF or say, k the next 3 years are going to be tough but you will have a clear direction from me... Aysa bhi nahi wesa bhi bhi.. Then choose words wisely. See what I am saying?

Do you have a citation on "We will kick out IMF"....You are taking him too literally...In broad outlines he is saying that we need to get out of debt trap. You seriously didnt think he meant AT ONCE.
But priorities are unemployment,growth,increase Health/Education spending,Security not Deficit cutting for the sake of Deficit cutting.
With a large undocumented economy and as the SBP has noted in its recent cut in the interest rate, you need to throw out rigid adherence to economic theories. This gives any government considerable leeway.
See how the country hasnt burnt to the ground under Zardari Harikiri regime.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/420388/...hy-the-banks-probably-hate-the-sbp-right-now/


Here is the paper that is being refered to.
http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/wpapers/2012/wp44.pdf
http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/wpapers/2012/wp52.pdf

As for dishonesty, he is the only Pakistani politician that is saying the prudent things:
More taxes (Wealth,Income,Agricultural tax,Capital gains, transaction instead of VAT or GST i.e more progressive tax system)
Govt Austerity in some areas (Money will be redirected into spending in Education and Health)
Key investments in Energy
Taking politics out of buisness.
Security etc to Increase FDI.

As for Balance the budget if you look at his economic team they are basically middle of the road Kenysians types. IK is ideologicallly agsint Neolibralism,Supply side economics and the Austrian School economics. What would you expect. As I said earlier your disagreement is primarily doctrinal.

Here is Azeem Ibrahim(PTI) on the British deficit, you can see the skeleton of PTI economic policy in his prescription
http://www.azeemibrahim.com/?p=1484


On PTI and IK he goes:
http://www.azeemibrahim.com/?p=1465
So you see this fellow is a unabashed Kenysian holding out in the University of Chicago of all places.
IK is clearly taking his advice.


Sovereign Debt crisis in Pakistan wont be as peaceful as in Iceland or Argentina. Expect currency freefall and the economy seizing up especially the power sector. Expect a reign of terror in the Frech tradition.
We may still have (Hopefully in this PPP reign).

 

[AsifAmeer]

Money turns out to be zeros on a screen. Nothing tangible.

Discussions, Books, knowledge.. now thats what I call the good stuff in life!

I am available to share knowledge with any citizen of any nation.

When the dust settles, I may visit karachi to visit my grandparents who rest there...

Do not take this the wrong way,

but so what now, make more ?

Or do something however big or small for your fellow man
and in particular Pak for which you obviously have an affiliation.

Pakistan is desperate for talented educated young people,

motivated by more than financial gain

Do you fit the bill ?

 

[AsifAmeer]

Could have atleast bothered to read the thread before wasting a million electrons..


... ur welcome.

So you want PPP and PMLN in power that again that has almost destroyed Pakistan? That's not an option.

At least PTI will be better than them - a lot better - even if it's nto your ideal government.

So that's the answer for people like you and that's how PTIans should respond - no need to indulge in dialogue with lame supporters of PPP and PMLN who don't have the backbone to profess their political affiliation openly but to these corrupt parties and indirectly spread doom and gloom (which has been created by PMLN and PPP).

PTI is the only option in the current scenario. It's may not be best, ideal, but it's a lot better. Period.

 

[UKPakistani]

Money turns out to be zeros on a screen. Nothing tangible.

Discussions, Books, knowledge.. now thats what I call the good stuff in life!

I am available to share knowledge with any citizen of any nation.

When the dust settles, I may visit karachi to visit my grandparents who rest there...

money Never was a word spoken more true

In terms of knowledge,the more we learn the less we seem to know

So share much as poss and show others and learn yourself

just how ignorant we all are in the greater scheme of things

Allah's Blessings on your grandparents

 

[salaudin]

I honestly want Asad to lead this Political party. He is a no BS guy. I have a problem with Imran. He needs to speak less and listen more.

As a pure discussion (only trying to understand the problem), can you put your concern in simpler terms ?

 

[Ali_Economist]

If I am not wrong I can only see one question in your reply and that is how the private sector would see PTI policy, as you know that private sector on bond or which we often here in UK call Gilts is interested in yield or yield curve, more specifically real yield. If a government goes for fiscal consolidation for discipline, it influence he bond and well as stock market positively due to the reduction in default risk premium as well as inflation. A fiscal discipline or consolidation would be a good new for financial sector and definatly it would be transmitted to real economy Inshallah. In context of liquidity for private sector Banking of England has very interesting instruments in its tool box for instance a recent Funding for Lending Scheme and many others.

As you asked how P.T.I would be different from others, so I think you did not pay much attention towards their plan to increase revenues. So you have a gradual rebalancing. About SBP figures there might be some difference I did not check details but there is not doubt there is fiscal imbalance in Pakistan.

If you are interested in history of economics may I dare to suggest you to have a look into British history.

Regards

 

[zhohaq]

Isse kehte hain REPLY! You explain your point of view with examples/facts/quotes. I see it, and I understand what you are trying to say. After reading this, I would say that I see your point. My issue is more of a philosophical than intellectual. Its beyond honesty here.

I called IK a liar (which it almost hurts to write because I too like this guy). Been to his gathering every time he has headed to dallas. Called him a liar more for the shock value. Lekin there is a bit of truth in it. You cant have a deficit above GDP growth and not expect pressures to build somewhere!

Ya to keh de k we are gonna go and beg to the IMF or say, k the next 3 years are going to be tough but you will have a clear direction from me... Aysa bhi nahi wesa bhi bhi.. Then choose words wisely. See what I am saying?

Your point is valid. But he is a politician. He has to play by the rules of PR and work in broad outlines etc.

His first post victory speech will be the "Kam kam oar Zyada kam one".
Look there is alot of psychology to these socio-economic issues,a concept IK has grasped,( if you listen to him carefully).
Numbers arent reality the approximate it. 40 yr ago the poverty must have been higher and GDP lower but people knew things were getting better and we were moving ahead. At a point of time after the crash Iceland looked toast,while Ireland seemed to have dodged the bullet but things change quickly.
Alan Greespan was the master of the universe at one time and now is a deranged old ghost.
Per economic theory SKMH isnt a sustainable model and should not exist.

Diang Ze pen, Mahatir,Erdogan,Lee kuan you or FDR(in his weekly fireside chats on radio) in America all have this in common. They connected to the people tap into the collective subconscious and move societies (Sorry for the Jungian digression). So the people despondent, corrupt, fragmented, lazy became united,full of hope ,honest , productive, ingenuitive.

Zoordari can do toba today and bring the best possible policies, best administrators etc but they wont have much of an affect. People will still steal, not pay their bills or taxes, launder money overseas send their children abroad, lie,cheat,grab property and kill.
That is only achievable by a social transformation. For that you need (briefly) the power of a myth, the sense of change a break with the past.And the right person at the right time...
Thats the only good reason to back IK (the myth being more valuable than the person)... No one else right now can give you that...