A tactical blunder by PTI which may haunt us after election results

[Mirza Marjana]

Once the results will be out it will be party's decision as to which seat one member will keep which one they leave. So for those fight on PA + NA is not big issue. E.g. if NA numbers are not enough they will all keep their NA seats and relinquish PA seats. If numbers are enough in NA then PA numbers will define which one they want to keep which they want to loose.
One benefit of that will be that these victories will be counted as victories at first instance however voting power for PM election will be reduced. Suppose if Imran Khan wins all his total seats counted with PTI victory will be 5 but Imran can cast only 1 vote, what will happen is it will amplify actual number of NA seats and hence easy to attract independents and form govt. Then Zimni elections are always won by the party in government!

faheem es thread man gujer khan ke seat fighting man hy bhae,,,,,,,,,,,, you remember bet...... agr pti seat win kr gae gujr khan tu man khana khilaon ga,,,,,,,

 

[v r imran k]

Once the results will be out it will be party's decision as to which seat one member will keep which one they leave. So for those fight on PA + NA is not big issue. E.g. if NA numbers are not enough they will all keep their NA seats and relinquish PA seats. If numbers are enough in NA then PA numbers will define which one they want to keep which they want to loose.
One benefit of that will be that these victories will be counted as victories at first instance however voting power for PM election will be reduced. Suppose if Imran Khan wins all his total seats counted with PTI victory will be 5 but Imran can cast only 1 vote, what will happen is it will amplify actual number of NA seats and hence easy to attract independents and form govt. Then Zimni elections are always won by the party in government!

the problem is ager khan sb 05 seats jeet jatay hain to to non leak k khatay main to nahi jaingi non leag pti k muqbalay main north punjab our south punjab mian seats nahi lay sakti ..muqabla sirf central punjab main hay Gujranwala Faisalabad shekhupura norowal sialkot mian hayn jahan nonleak sy muqabala kafi strong hay one two one fight hay.....central punjab sy 50% be seat lay lain our north punjab our south Punjab mian majority ki seats pti k hath main hay our kpk mian 39 main sy 30 seats to solid pti k pass + north punjab and south punjab pti k pass hay 120 plus seats ban jati hian then jeep group ki 10 sy 15 seat b pti k ath hongi then GDA ki 20 sy 22 seats exprected huin to simple majority ban hi jati hain so dont worry bother PTI inshallah form a goverment in pakistan

 

[PakGem]

Dear Bro..

what are the winning probability of the seats which are in fight status........ are there any chances to win seats from fight constituencies ???

secondly there are 40 seats from south punjab, i gues these are out of 44 seats..... these to much over estimated in my opinion.
3rdly,, shahbaz shareef can win from swat,, is he in position to win that..

lastly,, what are info criteria, your calculation based on ?

Bro, I have listed each seat and indicated chances infront of that. I am gathering information from various sources like Local
Friends, Groups, SM Handles of both parties and independent observers.

As for the Fighting Seats, Last 10 Days Campaign, Local Factors can swing seats either way.

 

[Mirza Marjana]

Bro, I have listed each seat and indicated chances infront of that. I am gathering information from various sources like Local
Friends, Groups, SM Handles of both parties and independent observers.

As for the Fighting Seats, Last 10 Days Campaign, Local Factors can swing seats either way.

great work................................

it would be better if someone prepare likewise comparison for punjab seats.

i believe... punjab is more important than center..

From mandi baha ud din ,,,,,, your analysis is right.................................. 100%.. i dont know about others..

from chakwal after disqualification of sardar ghulam abbas ,, pti chances are very very limited

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

faheem es thread man gujer khan ke seat fighting man hy bhae,,,,,,,,,,,, you remember bet...... agr pti seat win kr gae gujr khan tu man khana khilaon ga,,,,,,,

G haan na sirf jeetna pa par Tehreek Labaik PMLN sa zyada votes la ge i remember it exactly!

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

faheem es thread man gujer khan ke seat fighting man hy bhae,,,,,,,,,,,, you remember bet...... agr pti seat win kr gae gujr khan tu man khana khilaon ga,,,,,,,

Gujar Khan men Muqabla e PTI or PPPP ka ha PMLN is no where! Tehreek i Labaik dono PTI or PMLN k votes la rahe ha wo achay khasay votes la jayn ga lekin abhe tak is seat pa PTI aagay ha!

 

[Mirza Marjana]

G haan na sirf jeetna pa par Tehreek Labaik PMLN sa zyada votes la ge i remember it exactly!

bet is on........................................................ bas duaa kro khair khariyat sy election ho jain,, aur hmari security agencies ke allah pak help kry,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

bet is on........................................................ bas duaa kro khair khariyat sy election ho jain,, aur hmari security agencies ke allah pak help kry,,,,,,,,,,,,

Allah reham kary ga In sha ALLAH!

 

[Mirza Marjana]

Gujar Khan men Muqabla e PTI or PPPP ka ha PMLN is no where! Tehreek i Labaik dono PTI or PMLN k votes la rahe ha wo achay khasay votes la jayn ga lekin abhe tak is seat pa PTI aagay ha!

limit hy log abe b pppp ko vote den gy

 

[ZS_Devil]

PTI cannot get to 137 on its own. PTI may not get anymore than 90 or 100 seats. PMLN will get around 60, and PPP around 40. Rest will go to smaller parties and independents. My guess is that there is a bigger likelihood of PPP+PMLN+kachra coalition govt than PTI coalition.
Whatever it may be, it will be a very weak govt, and is liekly to fall sooner rather tahn later.

that's some sensible analyze from a PTI Supporter :P i would like to see PTI + PPP govt rather PPP+PMln Govt

 

[morpheus]

you are looking at wrong number of 60...... it will between 90 to 100..............

I mean 60 seats from Punjab and about 90 overall

 

[Mirza Marjana]

I mean 60 seats from Punjab and about 90 overall

PTI will take inshallah more seats.. PMLN will seats due to candidates...................whatever is the number... its my assessment,,, wrong or right

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

limit hy log abe b pppp ko vote den gy

Ye vote PPPP ka nahe Pervez Ashraf ka apna ha. Agar Pervez Ashraf PPPP ko chor k independent election laray to ye seat wo jeet jay ga lekin chun k wo PPPP k ticket pa larta ha is liya wo hamesha -20,000 sa start hota ha is halqay men!

 

[Mirza Marjana]

Ye vote PPPP ka nahe Pervez Ashraf ka apna ha. Agar Pervez Ashraf PPPP ko chor k independent election laray to ye seat wo jeet jay ga lekin chun k wo PPPP k ticket pa larta ha is liya wo hamesha -20,000 sa start hota ha is halqay men!

ppp ek ticket ek taweeez hy jis ko harana ho usko dy do :D

 

[AEngineer]

PTI cannot get to 137 on its own. PTI may not get anymore than 90 or 100 seats. PMLN will get around 60, and PPP around 40. Rest will go to smaller parties and independents. My guess is that there is a bigger likelihood of PPP+PMLN+kachra coalition govt than PTI coalition.
Whatever it may be, it will be a very weak govt, and is liekly to fall sooner rather tahn later.

You are giving 272-100-60-40=72 seats to other parties or independents ?? :oops:

 

[Will_Bite]

You are giving 272-100-60-40=72 seats to other parties or independents ?? :oops:

Well...theres mqm, psp, anp, mma, pmlnq to begin with. If they all get an average of 5 seats, thats 30 seats right there. Then you have independents who i believe will make up the largest chunk after pti, pmln and ppp. So it would be close to 72

 

[AEngineer]

Check file compiled by me. It will help you put things in the perspective,

http://bit.ly/PTIPosition

PTI is very much in the position to take 137 seats on it's own. You can reffer back to my post after the elections.

Great Effort, :heart(y) ,, I always wonder that what happened to NA-97?? :unsure:

 

[AEngineer]

Well...theres mqm, psp, anp, mma, pmlnq to begin with. If they all get an average of 5 seats, thats 30 seats right there. Then you have independents who i believe will make up the largest chunk after pti, pmln and ppp. So it would be close to 72

Only 20 independents are in election race, who can be considered as electable, and I dont see more than 15 independents winning after election.
plz see this http://bit.ly/PTIPosition

 

[Raaz]

او بھائی سمجھدار ! جو سیٹ خالی کرتا ہے وہاں پر ضمنی الیکشن میں وہ اپنا بندہ کھڑا کرتا ہے اور پچانوے فیصد ایسا ہوتا ہے کہ وہ سیٹ اس کے بندے کو مل جاتی ہے

اس طریقے سے اگر دس قومی اسمبلی کی سیٹیں خالی ہوں گی تو نو تو واپس پی ٹی آئی کو ہی ملیں گی

 

[kakajee]

Check file compiled by me. It will help you put things in the perspective,

http://bit.ly/PTIPosition

PTI is very much in the position to take 137 seats on it's own. You can reffer back to my post after the elections.

Even though I dont agree with your take on PTI winning these many seats.

But you have done a commendable work. And it is mostly quite realistic too.

Just a few observations from my sides

1: I think Capt safdar and Mayam Nawaz are not contesting elections anymore. But you have still written them.
2). You should try too continuously update the list based on ground situation and source.
3). I think Ch. Nisar will lose in NA-59