I see two possibilities as this stage:
PTI led coalition government (AML, BAP, PML-Q, GDA, PSP to be coalition partners, Independents to join PTI)
PML-N and PPP coalition government (MMA, ANP, MQM-P to be coalition partners, Independents to join PML-N or PPP)
(Seat projection: PTI - 104; PML(N) - 78; PPP - 28; MQM(P) -13; PSP - 1; MMA - 8; BAP - 4; GDA - 10; PML(Q) - 6; AML - 1; ANP - 2; BNP - 3; NP - 1; PKMAP - 2; IND - 11)
Reasons:
- PPP’s support base is relatively unhinged, but some of their electable candidates have joined PTI, and the formation of the GDA in Sindh means that they are bound to lose some seats in interior Sindh, though they may make some gains in Karachi due to the MQM breaking up.
- PML(N) have suffered massive losses largely due to the huge amounts of corruption scandals opening up. Their former leader, Nawaz Sharif was disqualified from PM’ship, and has now been disqualified from office for life due to corruption. Multiple high ranking ministers, such as Khawaja Asif have been disqualified, while other ministers are still being investigated. PML(N) are also losing a huge amount of electable candidates to PTI.
- Demands for a new province in South Punjab have led to a large amount of sitting PML(N) MNAs to leave the party. There is a bad feeling towards PML(N) in South Punjab. At the same time, PTI have expressed that they will create a new province in South Punjab on an administrative basis, if elected. This means that the PML(N) defects are likely to join PTI, or at least form an electoral alliance with them.
- The FATA merger has become a major issue of late. The people of FATA mostly want to be merged with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but PML(N) and it’s allies, MMA and PKMAP, are blocking the merger.
- The Khatam-e-Nubuwwat issue caused widespread protests by the Barelvi religious group, and has created a bad feeling towards PML(N) from the religious part of Pakistan. These voters may look towards PTI rather than PPP, because PTI aim to build a country based on the “principles of Islam” while PPP are a secular party.
- MQM crumbling into factions in Karachi leaves a void in Karachi. This void is being hotly contested by PTI and PSP. While MQM factions won’t lose all their seats in Karachi and urban Sindh, they are likely to lose a significant amount of them, mostly to PTI, but a few to PPP too.
Ultimately it will come down to which party can get the most people to vote on election day, at this stage I would put my money on a PTI led government.
