LogicMonkey
Citizen
Taken from: http://aikbaat.blogspot.com/2012/12/the-qadri-boy-and-establishments-last.html
Based on the events of the last 10 days, one of the most commonly asked questions in Pakistan is What is going on? as in what is going with the whole Qadri Parade, what is up with the Baby Zardari Launch and generally what the hell is going on in Pakistan.
Simply put there are two sides going up against each other and all these events, or whatever you want to call them, are just parts of that. So who are these sides and what are they after?
One side to all this is the Establishment. For the last 5 years, the establishment has played one hand after another against a democratically elected government but failed as for once the largest opposition parties refuse to play along with them. So a year ago they launched their own horse in the race who initially did very well but later fizzled out like most of Establishments schemes. The Establishment learnt from this failed experiment and went back to the drawing board and came back with Tahir ul Qadri. Tahir ul Qadri, already having played a pawn multiple times in Establihsments miscalculated moves, jumped right back on the horse and rode in promising to change the system. But as is the case with most Establishments experiments, he came, he saw and he backed off from what he said. So one side to this fight is these guys but why are they doing this? Well the answer to that is actually very simple but not very commonly discussed.
What the Establishment is after is something dubbed as the Bangladesh Formula. For years our army and their army have been messing around in politics without much success. No matter how many times they took over, they were always kicked out eventually and in this process they ended up earning a bad name. But about 3 years ago, the Bangladeshi Army finally cracked the code to solve this complicated riddle. The play was that the Army does not get involved, instead a care taker government be formed that would include all branches of the state including judiciary and the military. This way the Army would get the seat on the table, but it would not be the bad guy as the caretaker government would be joint effort. And just to make things more legitimate, smaller insignificant parties would be invited to become part of the care taker set up that would then decide the rules for elections which would be delayed from their actual date as the new structures being designed just happen to take about two years to complete. Obviously Army would have the strongest say as well they have guns and also they have better logistics than anyone else on the table. Also in this space of about two years, the care taker government would take all the tough decisions that need to be taken with regards to foreign affairs and economy as the democratically elected politicians simply do not get it.
This is what is called the Bangladesh Formula; a coup without the shame of a coup. Since its success in Bangladesh, our Establishment has been itching to use it here too but have never really found the right time. Last years Imran adventure backfired badly, but the establishment powered on and now with Tahir Ul Qadri they are putting their ducks in a row; MQM is getting in line, PTI is getting in line, smaller parties are getting in line. The play is simple, Karachis law and order gets screwed up by the Third Hand for at least two straight weeks, in the mean time about 500,000 people start marching on Islamabad from Lahore on 14[SUP]th[/SUP] January all the while the Pakistan Rupee keeps falling against the dollar. The Lashkar-e-Qadri enters Islamabad, holds the city hostage and one thing leads to another Army gets called in. And while this all is going on the Courts get involved. This is what the Establishment is making a play for as this opens the door for their attempt at Bangladesh Formula.
The other side which is made up of Political Parties sans MQM, has been fighting the Establishment long enough to realize that a play is being made. In the last 10 days they have hammered out a date for elections which is supposed to be mid-may. Now they are nearly done finalizing the caretaker set up that they now intend to put in place by the 17[SUP]th[/SUP] of March 2013.
What is going is that these two are simply going up against each other. The Political Parties have paid too high a price already to let democracy slip away this easily but the Establishment has pumped enough money in to this game to lose out now. Plus the impending US pull out from Afghanistan means Establishment stands to make a lot of money and make a play for Afghanistan again.
So buckle up Pakistan, this is going to be one hell of an election season. So just hope and pray that democracy wins.
Based on the events of the last 10 days, one of the most commonly asked questions in Pakistan is What is going on? as in what is going with the whole Qadri Parade, what is up with the Baby Zardari Launch and generally what the hell is going on in Pakistan.
Simply put there are two sides going up against each other and all these events, or whatever you want to call them, are just parts of that. So who are these sides and what are they after?
One side to all this is the Establishment. For the last 5 years, the establishment has played one hand after another against a democratically elected government but failed as for once the largest opposition parties refuse to play along with them. So a year ago they launched their own horse in the race who initially did very well but later fizzled out like most of Establishments schemes. The Establishment learnt from this failed experiment and went back to the drawing board and came back with Tahir ul Qadri. Tahir ul Qadri, already having played a pawn multiple times in Establihsments miscalculated moves, jumped right back on the horse and rode in promising to change the system. But as is the case with most Establishments experiments, he came, he saw and he backed off from what he said. So one side to this fight is these guys but why are they doing this? Well the answer to that is actually very simple but not very commonly discussed.
What the Establishment is after is something dubbed as the Bangladesh Formula. For years our army and their army have been messing around in politics without much success. No matter how many times they took over, they were always kicked out eventually and in this process they ended up earning a bad name. But about 3 years ago, the Bangladeshi Army finally cracked the code to solve this complicated riddle. The play was that the Army does not get involved, instead a care taker government be formed that would include all branches of the state including judiciary and the military. This way the Army would get the seat on the table, but it would not be the bad guy as the caretaker government would be joint effort. And just to make things more legitimate, smaller insignificant parties would be invited to become part of the care taker set up that would then decide the rules for elections which would be delayed from their actual date as the new structures being designed just happen to take about two years to complete. Obviously Army would have the strongest say as well they have guns and also they have better logistics than anyone else on the table. Also in this space of about two years, the care taker government would take all the tough decisions that need to be taken with regards to foreign affairs and economy as the democratically elected politicians simply do not get it.
This is what is called the Bangladesh Formula; a coup without the shame of a coup. Since its success in Bangladesh, our Establishment has been itching to use it here too but have never really found the right time. Last years Imran adventure backfired badly, but the establishment powered on and now with Tahir Ul Qadri they are putting their ducks in a row; MQM is getting in line, PTI is getting in line, smaller parties are getting in line. The play is simple, Karachis law and order gets screwed up by the Third Hand for at least two straight weeks, in the mean time about 500,000 people start marching on Islamabad from Lahore on 14[SUP]th[/SUP] January all the while the Pakistan Rupee keeps falling against the dollar. The Lashkar-e-Qadri enters Islamabad, holds the city hostage and one thing leads to another Army gets called in. And while this all is going on the Courts get involved. This is what the Establishment is making a play for as this opens the door for their attempt at Bangladesh Formula.
The other side which is made up of Political Parties sans MQM, has been fighting the Establishment long enough to realize that a play is being made. In the last 10 days they have hammered out a date for elections which is supposed to be mid-may. Now they are nearly done finalizing the caretaker set up that they now intend to put in place by the 17[SUP]th[/SUP] of March 2013.
What is going is that these two are simply going up against each other. The Political Parties have paid too high a price already to let democracy slip away this easily but the Establishment has pumped enough money in to this game to lose out now. Plus the impending US pull out from Afghanistan means Establishment stands to make a lot of money and make a play for Afghanistan again.
So buckle up Pakistan, this is going to be one hell of an election season. So just hope and pray that democracy wins.
