Salam All,
Most of you won't understand what i am going to try to explain for you guys do not have a background in astronomy and sypherical trigonometry.
Nevertheless I would try to explain it in simpler word
There is no such formula or Calculationn that can calculate the visibility of Moon
Yes thats True...there is no such thing as a formula or equation that can pinpoint that start of the lunar month.
The website owner of ICOProject has based his forecasting model on historical data of moonsightings. Its called forecasting in terms of interpolation of a set of data based on historical time lines. Lets say that I have historical data about rainfaill in Karachi which was observed as Under
In 1979 it rained 17 mm during the month of September on 2:00 PM on Tuesday the 27th
In 1980 it rained 20 mm during the month of Sept on 3:00 Pm on Tuesday the 24 th
How much would it rain in 2012 the same month at the same time? .....the computer model will just forecast based on interpolation of previous data set. So is the case with this moonsighting model
The moon sighting forecasting model can never be accurate. Just like when the weather man tells you that today the chances of shower are 30 % now in reality it could rain or it could not rain......its only a forecast and at 30 percent you cannot be sure.
The moonsighting model used on the site merely predicts 1 percent of full moon....and the big question is will the 1% moon be visible? or 2 percent moon be visible or 3 percent ....or so on? .....nobody has the answer !
The Moon is always there on the sky it never disappears but the reason why we see it or why we dont see it depends on what side of the moon is facing the earth...The nightside of the moon or the day side of the moon !
The sighting of moon in short depends on the following :
1. How much Sunligh the moon is reflecting......i.e The relative position of the moon with respect to the Sun
2. How much Bright or luminous the Sun was on that day
3. Angle of inclination of the observer or in other words the geographical coordinates and the elevation.
Bottom Line " There is no Mathematical calculation ...No Forumla which can accurately explain the visibility of moon"
I challenge anybody who says that there is a mathematical forumla....Give me the forumula...tell me how many and what variables are there what are the constants etc...
O bhai these are all forecasting models......mager aap logoun ka scientific background hota nahi....or shor machana shoro ker detay ho kay jee science nay taraqi ker lee hay ub aap yeh to wo....
Bas yaar wo kehtay hein na " Little Knowledge is Dangerous"
Bhai saab, Allah aap ko aur knowledge dey infact dunya kaa sara knowledge aap ko dey! ye sab aap kisi ko offend kiye bhgair bhi keh sakte thy... as i requested in my message 'Without annoying anyone'. And mostly that is the very reason a conversation turns into argument because of such attitudes. You actually missed the whole point which was about a conversation not about superiority contest. I am sure there are people out there having far more knowledge then you and me about the subject.
How about changing our attitudes and start to learn to be respectful and handle a conversation with those who are even not as good and knowledgeable (in a certain area) as we are, eventually that will contribute towards building a positive and more tolerant society.
If you check your arguments, it is also possible because of very scientific calculations.
The forecasting model you mentioned to determine is actually a scientific method but you forgot to mention probability. Also with discussions we could always negotiate +/- percentage of accuracy of devised approach same as weather forecast example you used.
Can you tell even Saudi's had 100% accurate visibility of moon on 29th august when they announced EID would be on 30th? I am not as scientific and well learned person like you but i believe they come to this conclusions evaluating number of parameters. So why not we evaluate varied scientific data and devise an approach. Obviously it is not as simple as it would require a lot of consultation from scholars and scientific authorities.
I also believe possibly my whole argument is completely out of question but at least people like me will learn from the others on this forum.
