Amir Mateen
This goes without saying that all eyes are set on the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf rally on March 23.Why?
This may be the only factor that might stop the PML-N onslaught in the central Punjab where the mighty PPP and PML-Q stalwarts are falling as nine pins. It’s not just about the electable fence-sitters joining the Nawaz League. It’s more about the euphoria that it generates in favour of the Nawaz League. A victory in the vast, green swath that straddles between Rivers Indus and Sutlej, or let's say, between Attock and Khanewal, means governments not just in Punjab but also at the Centre. Here we talk about roughly 107 National Assembly electoral seats that alone should be enough to form a federal government. As the PPP virtually gives up the plains of the central Punjab, the only person who can stop Nawaz Sharif from becoming the Prime Minister is Imran Khan. As simple as that.
And this is why the PTI rally at Minar-i-Pakistan matters. It may just indicate which way the electoral wind will blow this time around. Of course, the size of the rally will matter. The estimates range from hundreds of thousands to millions, depending on which side of the political divide you are. Some say at least half a million people will gather; others claim that the PTI rally will be bigger than Benazir Bhutto’s 1986 rally, which remains an all-time touchstone of public rallies in Lahore. Still other ‘Tehrikias,’ the PTI counterpart for the PPP jiyalas, brag that this will be the biggest-ever rally in Pakistan’s history.
Shafqat Mahmood lends meat to this claim by explaining that nearly 80,000 office-bearers of the PTI are supposed to take oath in the rally. “Imagine if each one of them brings at least ten people along, this will mean one million people, he said, claiming, “most people will bring workers in hordes.
”Well, the PTI has proved its ability to gather huge crowds time and again. There is little doubt that the PTI rally will be big.It can be big, bigger or the biggest, but the more important question is: What then? The crucial factor will be if the PTI is able to jumpstart its lost momentum through the rally. The party desperately needs to reconnect with masses.
It may have picked up its rhythm a little too early in the race. It lost its steam when it chose popular politics over the strategy of winning the so-called ‘electables.’ It might have gained a few heavy weights in the party, the likes of Javed Hashmi and Shah Mahmood Qureshi, but the losses on the popular front were perhaps more. This created a wedge in the old and the new leadership. The ordinary PTI workers were found disenchanted, explaining the entry of turncoats like Jahangir Tareen who represents the monopolistic anti-status quo forces.
The PML (N) was quick to point out that the PTI was as good as bad as them. The whole aura of Imran Khan’s politics for change got burst. More important, this brought the skipper to the wicket of Nawaz Sharif who mastered the art of winning ‘electables’ in the last quarter of a century. It took the small-time cricketer, Nawaz Sharif to hit the skipper with huge sixes, winning over half of the Punjab ‘electables’ from all parties.
Now, Imran Khan may have the chance to restore his earlier rhythm. It is yet to be seen whether he will sway the politics of ‘electables’ back to the class and corruption issues through the rally.
Nawaz Sharif has already cast his die by gathering the biggest Punjabi ‘electable.’ It’s obvious that he wants to pursue power politics in absolute disregard to every principle of morality. Plus, he is also handicapped because of the incumbency factor in Punjab. Shahbaz Sharif, despite his bravado and dramatics, does not stand out as a great administrator that he projected himself earlier largely because ‘Bhaijan’ was the PM. The PML (N) stands tested twice in the Centre and in Punjab, where it ruled for 19 out of the last 28 years.The PML (N) definitely soars high in the game of ‘electables.’ But if the focus shifts to popular politics, the party may be in trouble.
The PML-N, if seen from a different prism, seems vulnerable if one interprets politics from the lens of minorities of religion, age and gender. Hindus, Christians and Ahmads may be a small minority but the Shias comprise a big group that nurtures genuine reservations against the PML (N). The youth and women may also find Imran Khan more appealing. The Saraikis are obviously unhappy over PML (N) stance over their demand for a separate province. This might seem simplified as too many imponderables exists before we make our predictions.
But the PTI may still have a chance to correct its course. Its media campaign showing a labourer becoming a tehsil President is catchy. What if this catches further? The PTI was wrong to get bogged down in the politics of the ‘electables.’ But it has a chance to correct its course by a seemingly fair process of giving election tickets. Definitely, the PTI has drawn attention by involving the workers at the grass roots. But they have tainted leaders at the top who have to be adjusted. This just might be the biggest test.
However, the buck stops at the rally and its aftermath. If the PTI is able to create a wave of ‘popularism’ at the beginning of the elections, this might just upset the barometers of our electoral predictions. It’s not easy but the biggest political lesson of the past few years is: The big public meetings have a way of swaying our extremely vulnerable public. It’s more about emotions than any concrete realities. Imran Khan faltered for 15 years and then it just took one big rally for him to click. Tahirul Qadri proved the same thing recently. So we keep our eyes open. It’s now-or-never for Imran Khan. We keep our fingers crossed.
This goes without saying that all eyes are set on the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf rally on March 23.Why?
This may be the only factor that might stop the PML-N onslaught in the central Punjab where the mighty PPP and PML-Q stalwarts are falling as nine pins. It’s not just about the electable fence-sitters joining the Nawaz League. It’s more about the euphoria that it generates in favour of the Nawaz League. A victory in the vast, green swath that straddles between Rivers Indus and Sutlej, or let's say, between Attock and Khanewal, means governments not just in Punjab but also at the Centre. Here we talk about roughly 107 National Assembly electoral seats that alone should be enough to form a federal government. As the PPP virtually gives up the plains of the central Punjab, the only person who can stop Nawaz Sharif from becoming the Prime Minister is Imran Khan. As simple as that.
And this is why the PTI rally at Minar-i-Pakistan matters. It may just indicate which way the electoral wind will blow this time around. Of course, the size of the rally will matter. The estimates range from hundreds of thousands to millions, depending on which side of the political divide you are. Some say at least half a million people will gather; others claim that the PTI rally will be bigger than Benazir Bhutto’s 1986 rally, which remains an all-time touchstone of public rallies in Lahore. Still other ‘Tehrikias,’ the PTI counterpart for the PPP jiyalas, brag that this will be the biggest-ever rally in Pakistan’s history.
Shafqat Mahmood lends meat to this claim by explaining that nearly 80,000 office-bearers of the PTI are supposed to take oath in the rally. “Imagine if each one of them brings at least ten people along, this will mean one million people, he said, claiming, “most people will bring workers in hordes.
”Well, the PTI has proved its ability to gather huge crowds time and again. There is little doubt that the PTI rally will be big.It can be big, bigger or the biggest, but the more important question is: What then? The crucial factor will be if the PTI is able to jumpstart its lost momentum through the rally. The party desperately needs to reconnect with masses.
It may have picked up its rhythm a little too early in the race. It lost its steam when it chose popular politics over the strategy of winning the so-called ‘electables.’ It might have gained a few heavy weights in the party, the likes of Javed Hashmi and Shah Mahmood Qureshi, but the losses on the popular front were perhaps more. This created a wedge in the old and the new leadership. The ordinary PTI workers were found disenchanted, explaining the entry of turncoats like Jahangir Tareen who represents the monopolistic anti-status quo forces.
The PML (N) was quick to point out that the PTI was as good as bad as them. The whole aura of Imran Khan’s politics for change got burst. More important, this brought the skipper to the wicket of Nawaz Sharif who mastered the art of winning ‘electables’ in the last quarter of a century. It took the small-time cricketer, Nawaz Sharif to hit the skipper with huge sixes, winning over half of the Punjab ‘electables’ from all parties.
Now, Imran Khan may have the chance to restore his earlier rhythm. It is yet to be seen whether he will sway the politics of ‘electables’ back to the class and corruption issues through the rally.
Nawaz Sharif has already cast his die by gathering the biggest Punjabi ‘electable.’ It’s obvious that he wants to pursue power politics in absolute disregard to every principle of morality. Plus, he is also handicapped because of the incumbency factor in Punjab. Shahbaz Sharif, despite his bravado and dramatics, does not stand out as a great administrator that he projected himself earlier largely because ‘Bhaijan’ was the PM. The PML (N) stands tested twice in the Centre and in Punjab, where it ruled for 19 out of the last 28 years.The PML (N) definitely soars high in the game of ‘electables.’ But if the focus shifts to popular politics, the party may be in trouble.
The PML-N, if seen from a different prism, seems vulnerable if one interprets politics from the lens of minorities of religion, age and gender. Hindus, Christians and Ahmads may be a small minority but the Shias comprise a big group that nurtures genuine reservations against the PML (N). The youth and women may also find Imran Khan more appealing. The Saraikis are obviously unhappy over PML (N) stance over their demand for a separate province. This might seem simplified as too many imponderables exists before we make our predictions.
But the PTI may still have a chance to correct its course. Its media campaign showing a labourer becoming a tehsil President is catchy. What if this catches further? The PTI was wrong to get bogged down in the politics of the ‘electables.’ But it has a chance to correct its course by a seemingly fair process of giving election tickets. Definitely, the PTI has drawn attention by involving the workers at the grass roots. But they have tainted leaders at the top who have to be adjusted. This just might be the biggest test.
However, the buck stops at the rally and its aftermath. If the PTI is able to create a wave of ‘popularism’ at the beginning of the elections, this might just upset the barometers of our electoral predictions. It’s not easy but the biggest political lesson of the past few years is: The big public meetings have a way of swaying our extremely vulnerable public. It’s more about emotions than any concrete realities. Imran Khan faltered for 15 years and then it just took one big rally for him to click. Tahirul Qadri proved the same thing recently. So we keep our eyes open. It’s now-or-never for Imran Khan. We keep our fingers crossed.
Last modified onFriday, 22 March 2013 02:31
