Bin Laden raid debacle leaves Pakistans rulers scrambling
Published On Thu May 5 2011
General Ashfaq Kayani, chief of Pakistans army, convened a special strategy session Thursday.
AAMIR QURESHI/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
By Rick Westhead South Asia Bureau
ISLAMABADAs the worlds press continued to buzz around Osama bin Ladens hideout, the real action in Pakistan was taking place on a military base on the outskirts of the beleaguered countrys capital.
Four-star general Ashfaq Kayani, chief of Pakistans army, convened a special corps commanders meeting Thursday, a strategy session for some 18 to 20 three-star generals and their top staffers.
His agenda: crafting a response to the storm of criticism leveled at Pakistans army and intelligence agencies following Mondays raid by U.S. special forces.
Its unclear how Kayani will direct his officers to proceed, but in this conspiracy-addicted nation, there is speculation the army will seek to undercut the countrys already weak civilian government.
Alternatively, several political analysts and diplomats suggested, President Asif Zardari may be weighing whether the public-relations debacle is a chance to wrest power from the army.
Id say that before the Osama raid there was a working relationship between the army and government that was very cautious and not based on trust, said Shaukat Qadir, a former Pakistan army brigadier whos now a security analyst. Now things are much more tense.
Several analysts said Pakistans army is at its weakest since the months following the calamitous 1971 war with India, when India helped independence fighters in East Pakistan secede and create Bangladesh. Some 90,000 Pakistani soldiers were captured as prisoners of war.
That set the stage for the return of a civilian government led by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto.
This is a golden opportunity for the government, said Ayesha Siddique, a strategic analyst who has written several books on the Pakistani military.
There are few checks on the powers of Pakistans military. It controls everything from foreign policy and industry the military here even produces its own brand of breakfast cereal to sensitive security matters. As chief of staff, Kayani can make or extend the term of senior officers at will, without consulting the defence minister.
And Pakistans army takes the lions share, 22 per cent, of the cash-poor nations budget.
Siddique said she hopes to see greater government oversight of the army.
While the army might be weak now, Pakistans civilian government can hardly consider itself in a position of strength.
Its public approval ratings are near an alltime low. Inflation is more than 20 per cent, the power is out for more than 14 hours at a time in some places, and fuel shortages are frequent even in large cities.
Siddique said its possible the army might try to capitalize on the bin Laden raid and the public backlash. In one way, it is already doing so, she said, by organizing street protests criticizing the U.S. for violating Pakistans sovereignty.
All of that is orchestrated by the army with media that are friendly towards them, Siddique said. The army is plugged in with every political party and university and media outlet in town. This is an army with intellectual control.
The army attempted damage control Thursday, announcing an investigation into its intelligence lapses. The army also said it wants the U.S. to pare the number of its troops in Pakistan.
But its also possible Kayani might try now to purge the Pakistan army of those who might have been willing to shelter bin Laden and other fundamentalists.
Within the one-million-plus members of Pakistans active military and reserves are several ideological groups, including U.S.-leaning liberals, liberal Islamists, and fundamentalist Islamists.
Siddique said she considers Kayani a liberal Islamist. He may say, All right, its time for perestroika and glasnost within the army, she said.
Qadir, the former brigadier, says hed love the chance to attend the corps commanders meeting.
I bet one of the 17 says its time to take over and the others will tell him to shut up, Qadir said. I think its more likely that youll see the army try to find some constitutional means, through its political party sources, to have midterm elections and get rid of this government.(http://www.thestar.com/news/world/p...d-debacle-leaves-pakistan-s-rulers-scrambling)
Published On Thu May 5 2011
AAMIR QURESHI/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
By Rick Westhead South Asia Bureau ISLAMABADAs the worlds press continued to buzz around Osama bin Ladens hideout, the real action in Pakistan was taking place on a military base on the outskirts of the beleaguered countrys capital.
Four-star general Ashfaq Kayani, chief of Pakistans army, convened a special corps commanders meeting Thursday, a strategy session for some 18 to 20 three-star generals and their top staffers.
His agenda: crafting a response to the storm of criticism leveled at Pakistans army and intelligence agencies following Mondays raid by U.S. special forces.
Its unclear how Kayani will direct his officers to proceed, but in this conspiracy-addicted nation, there is speculation the army will seek to undercut the countrys already weak civilian government.
Alternatively, several political analysts and diplomats suggested, President Asif Zardari may be weighing whether the public-relations debacle is a chance to wrest power from the army.
Id say that before the Osama raid there was a working relationship between the army and government that was very cautious and not based on trust, said Shaukat Qadir, a former Pakistan army brigadier whos now a security analyst. Now things are much more tense.
Several analysts said Pakistans army is at its weakest since the months following the calamitous 1971 war with India, when India helped independence fighters in East Pakistan secede and create Bangladesh. Some 90,000 Pakistani soldiers were captured as prisoners of war.
That set the stage for the return of a civilian government led by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto.
This is a golden opportunity for the government, said Ayesha Siddique, a strategic analyst who has written several books on the Pakistani military.
There are few checks on the powers of Pakistans military. It controls everything from foreign policy and industry the military here even produces its own brand of breakfast cereal to sensitive security matters. As chief of staff, Kayani can make or extend the term of senior officers at will, without consulting the defence minister.
And Pakistans army takes the lions share, 22 per cent, of the cash-poor nations budget.
Siddique said she hopes to see greater government oversight of the army.
While the army might be weak now, Pakistans civilian government can hardly consider itself in a position of strength.
Its public approval ratings are near an alltime low. Inflation is more than 20 per cent, the power is out for more than 14 hours at a time in some places, and fuel shortages are frequent even in large cities.
Siddique said its possible the army might try to capitalize on the bin Laden raid and the public backlash. In one way, it is already doing so, she said, by organizing street protests criticizing the U.S. for violating Pakistans sovereignty.
All of that is orchestrated by the army with media that are friendly towards them, Siddique said. The army is plugged in with every political party and university and media outlet in town. This is an army with intellectual control.
The army attempted damage control Thursday, announcing an investigation into its intelligence lapses. The army also said it wants the U.S. to pare the number of its troops in Pakistan.
But its also possible Kayani might try now to purge the Pakistan army of those who might have been willing to shelter bin Laden and other fundamentalists.
Within the one-million-plus members of Pakistans active military and reserves are several ideological groups, including U.S.-leaning liberals, liberal Islamists, and fundamentalist Islamists.
Siddique said she considers Kayani a liberal Islamist. He may say, All right, its time for perestroika and glasnost within the army, she said.
Qadir, the former brigadier, says hed love the chance to attend the corps commanders meeting.
I bet one of the 17 says its time to take over and the others will tell him to shut up, Qadir said. I think its more likely that youll see the army try to find some constitutional means, through its political party sources, to have midterm elections and get rid of this government.(http://www.thestar.com/news/world/p...d-debacle-leaves-pakistan-s-rulers-scrambling)
