Pakistan Economy is the World's Third Fastest Growing Among Top 25 Economies

[RiazHaq]

Pakistan is now the world's third fastest growing economy among the world's top 25 economies with PPP GDP of over one trillion US dollars, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). IMF has recently raised the country's 2018 growth forecast to 5.6%.

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[TD="class: tr-caption"]Courtesy: Ashraf Hameedi, Highforest Capital[/TD]
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Pakistan 3rd Fastest Among Top 25:

Spectator Index has ranked India first with 7.3% growth, followed by China (6.5%), Pakistan (5.6%), Indonesia (5.3%) and Turkey (3.7%) among the world's 25 largest economies in terms of PPP GDP.

Earlier in October 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast Pakistan's economy to grow at 6.3% CAGR over 2017-2022.

World Bank:

The World Bank sees Pakistan's GDP to grow 5.5% in current fiscal year 2017-18 ending in June 2018, a full percentage point faster than the 4.5% average GDP growth for Emerging and Developing Economies (EMDEs) that include Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Nigeria and Russia among others. However, Pakistan economic growth continues to lag growth forecast for regional economies of India and Bangladesh. The report also highlights the issue to growing trade deficit and current account gap that could lead to yet another balance of payments crisis for Pakistan requiring another IMF bailout.

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[TD="class: tr-caption"]Source: World Bank Group[/TD]
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Pakistan GDP Growth:

Here's an excerpt of the January 2018 World Bank report titled "Global Economic Prospects" as it relates to Pakistan:

"In Pakistan, growth continued to accelerate in FY2016/17 (July-June) to 5.3 percent, somewhat below the government’s target of 5.7 percent as industrial sector growth was slower than expected. Activity was strong in construction and services, and there was a recovery in agricultural production with a return of normal monsoon rains. In the first half of FY2017/18, activity has continued to expand, driven by robust domestic demand supported by strong credit growth and investment projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Meanwhile, the current account deficit widened to 4.1 percent of GDP compared to 1.7 percent last year, amid weak exports and buoyant imports."

Growing External Account Imbalance:

The report correctly points out the problem of growing current account deficit that could turn into a balance of payments crisis unless the trade deficits are brought under control. Recent trends in the last three months do offer some hope with December 2017 exports up 15% while imports increased 10%. Exports in November increased 12.3%.

Along with double digit increase in exports in the last two months, Pakistan received remittances amounting to $1.724 billion in December 2017, 8.72% higher compared with $1.585 billion the country received in the same month of the previous year, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), as reported by Express Tribune.

Summary:

Pakistan is the third fastest growing economy among the top 25 economies in terms of purchasing power parity. Pakistan's economic growth is continuing to accelerate amid rising rising investments led by China-Pakistan Economic Corridor related infrastructure and energy related projects. The IMF sees Pakistan economy growing at 5.6% while the World Bank forecasts it to grow by 5.5% in current fiscal year 2017-18 ending in June 2018, a full percentage point faster than the 4.5% average GDP growth for Emerging and Developing Economies (EMDEs) that include Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Nigeria and Russia among others. However, Pakistan economic growth continues to lag growth forecast for regional economies of India and Bangladesh. The report also calls attention to the expanding current account gap as a matter of concern that must be taken seriously by the government to avoid yet another return to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).


Source

 

[atensari]

پچھلے پانچ سالوں میں قرضوں کا حجم کتنا بڑھا ہے؟ اس سال قرضوں کا قرضہ اتارنے کے لئے کتنا قرضہ درکار ہے؟

 

[GreenMaple]

Come get more loans from us. The IMF is playing the "Economic Hitman" strategy by the book; and make us fools believe that it's all rosy. With this kind of growth rate you would see private sector in action, and boom cranes in skylines of the cities all over.

 

[Imran the legend]

What a rubbish no government high corruption high loans High imports how economy do well on it's own no departments are working all rubbish pmln media paid

 

[arafay]

I think it is a forecast for next 5 years. Actually GDP growth from 2013-2018 has been quite poor. With terrorism (taliban as well as MQM in Karachi) mostly gone, I think GDP growth should improve by 1-2%. But again, that 6% is not enough because pakistan needs 8-10% GDP growth just to employ the 2-3 million people entering the job market each year.

 

[Behrouz27]

Pakistan's economy will NOT survive the maturity of $70bn in debt this year. Pakistan, drowned deep in debt, is sinking deeper and deeper with each passing moment.

[FONT=&amp]ختم نبوت صلی الله علیہ وسلم کے قانون میں ہیرا پھیری کرنے کی گھٹیا سازش کرنے والی نون لیگ کی اس یزیدی حکومت کا الیکشن 2018 میں مکمل بائیکاٹ کرنا ہر سچے مسلمان اور ہر سچے عاشق رسول کی دینی ، اخلاقی اور مذہبی ذمہ داری ہے

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[jamalkhan]

dude wtf .. in reality we are living in a shithole

 

[ziaokara]

look at the current GDP, Pakistan has the lowest 1.06 in the whole list even lower than Nigeria....***** on PMLN and PPP 35 years

 

[Will_Bite]

What rubbish. Posting CPEC related spikes as 'long term data'. This is number fidgeting.

 

[RiazHaq]

I am very optimistic about Pakistan's future. It will be among the biggest and most powerful economies in the next few decades.

I believe 135 million strong Pakistani millennials will change everything.


[h=1]135 Million Millennials Drive World's Fastest Retail Market[/h]Middle class expected to surpass U.K., Italy over 2016-21

[FONT=BWHaasHead-75Bold, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...llennials-drive-world-s-fastest-retail-market

Pakistan’s burgeoning youth and their freewheeling attitude toward rising incomes have turned the nation into the world's fastest growing retail market.
Pakistan’s burgeoning youth and their freewheeling attitude toward rising incomes have turned the nation into the world's fastest growing retail market.
The market is predicted to expand 8.2 percent per annum through 2016-2021 as disposable income has doubled since 2010, according to research group Euromonitor International. The size of the middle class is estimated to surpass that of the U.K. and Italy in the forecast period, it said.

Pakistan's improving security environment, economic expansion at near 5 percent and cheap consumer prices are driving shoppers to spend up big. Almost two-thirds of the nation's 207.8 million people are aged under 30, according to the Jinnah Institute, an Islamabad-based think tank.“We have a new millennial shopper at hand. They don’t mind spending to have the kind of lifestyle they would like,” said Shabori Das, senior research analyst at Euromonitor. “It’s not like the Baby Boomer generation where savings for the future generation was important.”Pakistan is bucking the trend in the U.S. -- where stores are closing at a record pace as e-commerce undermines bricks-and-mortar. It's also attracting foreign operators: Turkish home appliance maker Arcelik AS and Dutch dairy giant Royal FrieslandCampina NV entered the market last year via acquisitions. Meanwhile, Hyundai Motor Co., Kia Motors Corp. and Renault SA are all building plants in the South Asian nation.
Pakistan’s retail stores are expected to increase by 50 percent to 1 million outlets in the five years through 2021, Euromonitor said. Its three biggest malls, Lucky One in Karachi and Packages Mall and Emporium Mall in Lahore, opened in the past two years.

Pakistan is mirroring what India went through about four years ago. Both countries have young populations with more income and less inclination toward saving which is a distinct difference to what retailers elsewhere are dealing with, said Das.
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[farhankhan1111]

well done PML n.

 

[khipk]

Consumer market growth is a sham. We wont achieve anything with it, until it is backed by industrial growth.

There are number of examples of failure of just consumer growth. Take musharrafs era for example, we had tremendous investment and growth during that period, but it was all on consumerism/service sector, his govt ended, so did the growth, and so did the benefit. On international level theres example of Greece, which enjoyed huge service sector growth, but with a small spike in international market went completely bankrupt.

We need industrial and manufacturing sector growth, like the one we had during Ayubs era. Like the one India and China has been focusing on. China has only now began focusing on the service sector, after establishing itself in the manufacturing sector.

Service sector growth without industrial growth is a house of cards, a small gust of wind will destroy it.

 

[Ehsan Rana]

Well, read the title carefully in the link shared.
EXPECTED to grow 5.6%, you can expect to grow 50% too. Day dreaming is not prohibited here. Especially when it comes to these kind of institutions, they would say anything to give a push to their puppets.

Talk about real figures. External debt has been doubled in just 4 years and trade deficit has grown to 20+ billion dollars and some fool is calling it growth.

 

[RiazHaq]

پچھلے پانچ سالوں میں قرضوں کا حجم کتنا بڑھا ہے؟ اس سال قرضوں کا قرضہ اتارنے کے لئے کتنا قرضہ درکار ہے؟

Pakistan's debt-to-gdp ratio is about 60% which ranks it at 73 in the world, according to CIA Factbook.

India's debt-to-gdp ratio is about 50%, ranking it at 97.

72 countries, including US, Japan and most of Europe, have higher debt-to-gdp ratios than Pakistan's.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html

 

[atensari]

Pakistan's debt-to-gdp ratio is about 60% which ranks it at 73 in the world, according to CIA Factbook.
India's debt-to-gdp ratio is about 50%, ranking it at 97.
72 countries, including US, Japan and most of Europe, have higher debt-to-gdp ratios than Pakistan's.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html

پاکستان صورتحال انڈیا، امریکا، جاپان اور یورپی ممالک کے مختلف ہے. پاکستان کو قرضوں کی وجہ سے دھمکیوں کا سامنا ہے ان ممالک کو نہیں ہے. محض موازنہ بجٹ تقریر کے ہیر پیر سے زیادہ نہیں

 

[RiazHaq]

Car sales up 20.4pc in six months

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/266890-car-sales-up-20-4pc-in-six-months

KARACHI: Sales of passenger cars rose 20.4 to 103,432 units in the first half of the current fiscal year of 2017/18, official data showed on Wednesday.

Car sales stood at 85,901 in the same period of last fiscal year, according to Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA).

In December 2017, sale of cars fell to 16,159 units as against 17,233 units in the previous month and 14,024 units in the same month a year ago.

Topline Securities, in a report, said the decline was due to the year-end’s leaner period of auto sales.

A total of 47,087 cars of 1,300cc or above category were sold during the first half, up 5.92 percent over the same period a year earlier.

But, the sale in the category declined to 6,652 units in December 2017 as against 8,087 in November and 6,880 units in December 2016.

Arslan Hanif, an analyst at Arif Habib Limited attributed the decline to crackdown of Indus Motor Company and cancellation of pre-booked orders of cars due to excess premium charged by dealers.

Under the category of 1,000cc category, a total of 23,642 units of Suzuki Cultus and Suzuki WagonR were sold, up 61 percent against 14,669 units sold last year.

One analyst said there is a huge increase in 1,000cc cars, as both WagonR and new variant of Cultus saw an amazing success in the country during the period under review.

Dispatch of 1,000cc category cars exhibited an uptick due to a massive demand from Careem, Uber and other transportation businesses.

Sales of 800cc and below 1,000cc cars, Suzuki Mehran and Bolan, increased 22 percent to 32,703 units in July-December from 26,780 units in the corresponding period last year.

“We believe Pak Suzuki continued to be major beneficiary as majority of used-car imports fall under lower engine capacity segment,” Topline Securities added.

A total of 4,562 buses and trucks were sold in the six-month period, up 17.5 percent.

Sales of farm tractors grew 54.3 percent to 32,310 units during the period under review.

A total of 6,797 jeeps were sold during the July-December period, depicting manifold growth as compared to 205 units sold during the same period last year.

The hefty sales were visibly due to an introduction of Honda’s BR-V. Honda recorded sales of 5,159 units of its new edition during the first half.

Sale of pick-ups was recorded at 13,909 units during the six months as against 11,427 units sold in the corresponding period last year.

Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association data further showed that a total of 940,825 motorcycles and three-wheelers were sold during the period under review, up a 19 percent over the same period a year ago.