Operation In N. Waziristan SOLUTION OR EVEN MORE DISASTER?
Pakistan torn over North Waziristan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - After a meeting in Islamabad on Wednesday in which two of United States President Barack Obama's senior intelligence aides briefed Pakistani officials on last month's failed car bombing in New York City's Times Square, a joint statement praised Pakistan's "excellent" cooperation in fighting terrorism.
A White House spokesman later said the Obama administration believed it was time to redouble efforts with Pakistan to close what he called "this safe haven", without being more specific.
He did not need to be. It is an open secret that the US wants Pakistan to launch a full-scale operation in the North Waziristan tribal area on the border with Afghanistan - something Islamabad is reluctant to do immediately - and is applying as much pressure as it possibly can.
United States National Security Adviser General James Jones and Central Intelligence Agency chief Leon Panetta met with, among others, President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi and chief of army staff General Parvez Kiani on Wednesday.
Jones and Panetta provided the Pakistani officials with an update on the investigation into the failed bombing on May 1 for which a Pakistani-American, Faisal Shahzad, has been charged. Shahzad, 30, has told investigators that he trained in North Waziristan.
Other than North Waziristan, Pakistan has mounted large-scale operations in the six remaining districts of the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas since 2008 - a 500-kilometer stretch of territory along Pakistan's western border with Afghanistan.
North Waziristan is the citadel of the Afghan resistance as well as home to al-Qaeda and linked militant groups. Washington is convinced that a successful operation in the area would have a decisive impact on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO's) operations in Afghanistan.
Two attacks in the Afghan capital Kabul this week will make the US even more impatient.
Early on Wednesday morning, militants carrying rocket-propelled grenades and wearing suicide vests attacked the major US base at Bagram, north of Kabul. In the ensuing battle, 10 Taliban fighters were said to have been killed and at least five US soldiers wounded. The attack came a day after a suicide bomber targeted a NATO-led military convoy in Kabul, killing 12 civilians and six foreign troops. The Taliban claimed responsibility for both incidents.
In the hot seat
Kiani, as chief of army staff and with a close relationship with the US military, is feeling the heat. Before his meeting with the US officials he would have pored over the reports piled in the right upper draw of his desk in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, stubbing out half-smoked cigarettes, as is habit.
He will be aware that if Pakistan enters North Waziristan it would be a double-edged sword. It would scatter the militants and they would lose their vital bases, which would affect their capacity to plan and execute attacks in Afghanistan. However, the militants, numbering at least 50,000 from various groups, would spread across Pakistan and with their nexus of cells in southern Punjab and in the southern port city of Karachi they could cause havoc of a scale never before seen in the country.
Kiani has expressed his reservations over an attack in North Waziristan to visiting General Stanley McChrystal, the American commander in Afghanistan, and General David Petraeus, head of US Central Command.
Kiani is due to retire on November 27 this year, and Minister of Defense Chaudhary Ahmad Mukhtar has said that his term would not be extended (and that he did not desire one). In the meantime, a weakened Zardari administration is not in a position to act as a countervailing force against the Pakistan army. So Kiani's decision is crucial.
Before the arrival of the American officials this week, Kiani spoke to a gathering in Rawalpindi of corps commanders. He outlined some of the issues related to an operation in North Waziristan. Pakistan's economy is in a poor state and much-needed aid that the US has pledged is conditional on Islamabad's support to the American war efforts.
All the same, graphs presented showed that Pakistan's average annual gross domestic product growth in the past 60 years has been about 5%, except for 2006 and 2007 when it performed exceptionally well due to US aid packages. However, growth declined to 3.7% in 2008 and 2.7% in 2009, due in part to a higher number of militant attacks and despite aid packages.
A decision on North Waziristan could have been made easier if the militants had shown willingness for a ceasefire.
Therefore, in coordination with the Saudi Arabian government, early this year a delegation that included retired squadron leader Khalid Khawaja, a former Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) official, and Mahmood al-Samarai, was sent to North Waziristan to explore the opportunities of long-term peace with the militants.
Samarai, an Iraqi and a former Muslim Brotherhood member, was the senior-most person after Osama bin Laden who went to Afghanistan in the 1980s to fight against the Soviets and he still lives in the region. Samarai is also known to have contacts in the Saudi Embassy in Pakistan for making contact with al-Qaeda.
Khawaja and Samarai tested the waters in North Waziristan and after believing they had achieved satisfactory results they made another trip in March, taking with them Colonel Ameer Sultan Tarrar, another former ISI official who is known as Colonel Imam. He is also called the father of the Taliban. However, a little-known group calling itself the Asian Tigers abducted them. Khalid was killed this month on suspicion of being a spy while Colonel Imam is still being held by the group.
A member of an al-Qaeda-linked Pakistani group told Asia Times Online, "We appreciated that backchannel move [by Khawaja and Samarai]. All mujahideen groups were happy at the prospect of reconciliation. Nobody would have been happy fighting a war inside Pakistan, but the process was sabotaged by the Asian Tigers. Everybody here is convinced that they were used, either willingly or unknowingly, by foreign powers that want an operation in North Waziristan at all costs."
He added that a gesture to this effect had been conveyed to Islamabad, that is, nobody wants a war with Pakistan, and if it was forced on the militants in North Waziristan it "would be an unfortunate event and it would be fought unwillingly".
With the killing of two Italian soldiers in Herat in western Afghanistan on Monday, the death of NATO troops in Kabul on Tuesday and the attack on Bagram on Wednesday, the Taliban's spring offensive is well underway. This comes just 10 days before a peace
jirga (council) in Kabul, sending a strong signal that there is little prospect of any political process emerging that could tame the Taliban-led insurgency.
The race of vital strategic interests from Kabul to Islamabad is entering its final phase, and nobody aims to lose. Kiani and his commanders want to buy time over North Waziristan, as do the militants, while the Americans want action - now. Something will have to give.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at [email protected]