How many seats do you think "Pakistan Tehrike Insaf" can WIN in the next General elections?
- Thread starter Aik Umeed
- Start date
Haha you are rite but also i would like add some more in it if you remb IK talked about the YOUTH alot and give them golden dreams "YOUTH is the furture" .......BUT in present condition he letting in more LOTAYZ in his party .......so same old faces .......
:angry_smile::angry_smile::angry_smile::angry_smile:
:angry_smile::angry_smile::angry_smile::angry_smile:
I will talk province wise, No seat from Balochistan and Sindh Balochistan has 14 seats and Sind has 61 seats in National Assembley. Imran Khan has not travelled in these province havent established party structure, no campaign or drive to attract leading polititians in these areas so its very difficult to compete big landlords and sardars in both of these provinces.
KPK has 35 seats, which can be divided into 4 distint parts.
1) The pashton dominated urban KPK like Peshawar, Mardan, Swabi, Noshehra, Swat etc. (10 seats in the national assembly)
2) The non pashton Hazara division which includes Havelian, Hasan Abdal, Mansehra, Abottabad, Tarbella and the Entire Kaghan Valley upto Babusar pass. (8 seats in National Assembly)
3) Pakhton dominated KPK districts with majority rural population including, taank, karak, dera ismail khan, kohat etc mostly south KPK. (10 seats in NA)
4) North KPK which is mixture of pakhton, hazara, balti, gilgiti, hindko, kafiristani, kohistani, kashmiri etc population areas including, Chitral, Darosh, Dir, Kohistan upper Swat valley etc. (7 seats in NA)
In KPK Imran Khan can win 5 urban seats (area 1) above in the list. While in rural seats (area 3 above) especially southern and central districts of KPK this time the MMA will bounce back as these areas are influenced by mullah/mosque politics and hard for PTI to take any seat at most 1/10 expected.
In Hazara division area 2 in the list i wrote above PTI has no presence and it's strong hold of PML N and PML Q. N damaged by Hazara province movement and this time PML Q or the Hazara movement lead by baba haider zaman can take seats. PPP or ANP are zero in this area.
Similarly in the Northern districts PTI is again very weak and cannot win any seat. Jamat e Islami and MMA has been strong there along with PML Q so again no seat from area 4 of KPK.
Islamabad has 2 seats in the National Assembly. One is the urban seat and the other is rural. On urban seat PML N tariq fazal won and rural Anjum Aqeel Khan won. Its very hard to win the rural seat of islamabad unless Jamat e Islami supports PTI because in 2002 elections the Jamat Islami (MMA) candidate won it having alliance with PML N.
On the other hand PTI can win the urban seat if PPP supports PTI and doesnot field a candidate and it becomes a one on one PTI vs PML N contest. Otherwise if PPP contest on urban seat there will be a bitter contest and 50-50 chance on Islamabad Urban seat for PTI.
Punjab has 148 seats in the National Assembly 70 of which are from south Punjab. By far now PTI has not establish any party offices, build campain or member registration drive in the south. South Punjab is a strong wadera type areas where always 2 big waderas contest each other. One strong candidate is always in PML and the other in PPP. So by far now on the entire 70 rural/south punjab seat PTI is unable to attract any strong wadera or candidate. By far now only Jahangir Tareen and Shah Mehmood Qureshi are rumoured to join PTI who could be strong wadera candidates, if they join then we can say PTI has a chance of winning 2/70 seats but currently PTI will find impossible to win any seat in these areas.
Around 60 seats in punjab are urban or semi urban mix rural seats. They include pure urban seats like NA 118-130 (excluding NA 127, 129 and 130) of Lahore and NA 51-56 in Rawalpindi or NA 148-152 in Multan etc. Similarly NA 90-96 semi urban with rural mix seats on Sialkot Gujranwala etc. Imran Khan has a fair chance of winning around 10 seats in this area and this is the only part of Pakistan where Imran Khan has been focusing and this has always been stronghold of PML N.
There are high hopes from Lahore for PTI and like to discuss its 12 seats in detail. In Lahore 2 seats the NA 128 (the Johar Town Shaukat Khanam Hospital and south Lahore area) and NA 124 (DHA cant area) 126 (the Model Town Iqbal Town seat could be won by Imran Khan as they are posh areas of lahore .
NA 119 will have a good contest as Mian Azhar would contest from there.
NA 120, 121, 122, 123 are interior lahore seats where PTI will find difficult to confront strong PML N support and some of these seats touch the northern extent of rural abadis/kachi abadis of Lahore where Imran Khan would find difficult to get support. While NA 127 includes alot of rural area of south west lahore including christian dominated yohannabad and kachi abadis of Town Ship, green town and PTI has no strength here. NA 129 and 130 of Lahore are pure rural seats and baradari competition occurs here between ghurkis dials khokhars abbasis etc
So NA 119 may go to Mian Azhar but I find it still very hard
NA 120, 121, 122, 123 are very difficult to win because as I said above some rural abadis attached along, interior city, strong PML N presence and alot of Kashmiri, Butt bradari support of Kashmiri Sharif family. And ofcourse Nawaz Shahbaz Hamza Shahbaz will contest on these seats.
NA 124 can be won but its the seat where Chaudhry Aitezaz Ahsan contests. If he stands then PTI has no chance to win coz PML N supports him and the MMA also supports him.
NA 125 is Javed Hashmis Lahore seat and he may contest again a strong PML N seat. He won from here in 2002 and in 2008 both times.
NA 126 is a mixture of urban posh Garden town, Model Town etc and Iqbal Town and Awan Town etc. Imran Khan can win here only if Jamat e Islami supports him because Islami Jamiat is very strong here and ofcourse Mansora the Jamats Pakistan Head Office is situated in this constituency. Jamats secretary general Liaqat Baloch has won this seat after alliance with PML N in 1990 and 2002 and he is always an influential candidate here. PML N is expected to take it again if JI boycotts of fields its own candidate or allies with PML N. PTI can take it if JI allies with PTI but in such situation JI will as PTI to support JI and not JI to support PTI candidate.
NA 127 as mentioned above hard to win by PTI.
NA 128 (my own constituency) is perhaps the only constituency I believe PTI can win because of PPP- PML Q turn coat Zaheer Abbas Khokhar. PTI can win if PPP supports PTI as it happened in the Lahore byelection. Zaheer got very close to Saif ul Islam Khokhar of PML N. Zaheer is son in law of former PPP federal minister karamat ali khokhar who used to win here during Bhutto time and in 1988. He was not graduate so he fielded Zaheer Abbas as PPP candidate in 2002. Zaheer won but left PPP and joined Patriots group and became part of musharraf govt. Then he joined PML Q and lost in 2008. And in 2009 Zaheer joined PTI. So he can give PML N a strong fight and win this seat if his father in Law Karamat Ali Khokar doesnot stand here on PPP ticket. Other wise Afzal Khokhar current PML N MNA can win again.
So I would conclude 5 seats from KPK. Once seat from Islamabad on 50-50 chance 1 seat from Lahore and 6-8 seats from rest of urban punjab and perhaps no seat by now from South Punjab. Making a total of around 10-12 seats atmost.
Imran Khan will find very hard to win Mianwali seat coz the both the two strong baradaris, the niaziz lead by Inam ulllah Khan Niazi the transport tycon who owns Niazi bus services of Pakistan and Rokherees lead by Humair Hyatt Khan Rokheree are in PML N and hard to take Mianwali seat without their support.
KPK has 35 seats, which can be divided into 4 distint parts.
1) The pashton dominated urban KPK like Peshawar, Mardan, Swabi, Noshehra, Swat etc. (10 seats in the national assembly)
2) The non pashton Hazara division which includes Havelian, Hasan Abdal, Mansehra, Abottabad, Tarbella and the Entire Kaghan Valley upto Babusar pass. (8 seats in National Assembly)
3) Pakhton dominated KPK districts with majority rural population including, taank, karak, dera ismail khan, kohat etc mostly south KPK. (10 seats in NA)
4) North KPK which is mixture of pakhton, hazara, balti, gilgiti, hindko, kafiristani, kohistani, kashmiri etc population areas including, Chitral, Darosh, Dir, Kohistan upper Swat valley etc. (7 seats in NA)
In KPK Imran Khan can win 5 urban seats (area 1) above in the list. While in rural seats (area 3 above) especially southern and central districts of KPK this time the MMA will bounce back as these areas are influenced by mullah/mosque politics and hard for PTI to take any seat at most 1/10 expected.
In Hazara division area 2 in the list i wrote above PTI has no presence and it's strong hold of PML N and PML Q. N damaged by Hazara province movement and this time PML Q or the Hazara movement lead by baba haider zaman can take seats. PPP or ANP are zero in this area.
Similarly in the Northern districts PTI is again very weak and cannot win any seat. Jamat e Islami and MMA has been strong there along with PML Q so again no seat from area 4 of KPK.
Islamabad has 2 seats in the National Assembly. One is the urban seat and the other is rural. On urban seat PML N tariq fazal won and rural Anjum Aqeel Khan won. Its very hard to win the rural seat of islamabad unless Jamat e Islami supports PTI because in 2002 elections the Jamat Islami (MMA) candidate won it having alliance with PML N.
On the other hand PTI can win the urban seat if PPP supports PTI and doesnot field a candidate and it becomes a one on one PTI vs PML N contest. Otherwise if PPP contest on urban seat there will be a bitter contest and 50-50 chance on Islamabad Urban seat for PTI.
Punjab has 148 seats in the National Assembly 70 of which are from south Punjab. By far now PTI has not establish any party offices, build campain or member registration drive in the south. South Punjab is a strong wadera type areas where always 2 big waderas contest each other. One strong candidate is always in PML and the other in PPP. So by far now on the entire 70 rural/south punjab seat PTI is unable to attract any strong wadera or candidate. By far now only Jahangir Tareen and Shah Mehmood Qureshi are rumoured to join PTI who could be strong wadera candidates, if they join then we can say PTI has a chance of winning 2/70 seats but currently PTI will find impossible to win any seat in these areas.
Around 60 seats in punjab are urban or semi urban mix rural seats. They include pure urban seats like NA 118-130 (excluding NA 127, 129 and 130) of Lahore and NA 51-56 in Rawalpindi or NA 148-152 in Multan etc. Similarly NA 90-96 semi urban with rural mix seats on Sialkot Gujranwala etc. Imran Khan has a fair chance of winning around 10 seats in this area and this is the only part of Pakistan where Imran Khan has been focusing and this has always been stronghold of PML N.
There are high hopes from Lahore for PTI and like to discuss its 12 seats in detail. In Lahore 2 seats the NA 128 (the Johar Town Shaukat Khanam Hospital and south Lahore area) and NA 124 (DHA cant area) 126 (the Model Town Iqbal Town seat could be won by Imran Khan as they are posh areas of lahore .
NA 119 will have a good contest as Mian Azhar would contest from there.
NA 120, 121, 122, 123 are interior lahore seats where PTI will find difficult to confront strong PML N support and some of these seats touch the northern extent of rural abadis/kachi abadis of Lahore where Imran Khan would find difficult to get support. While NA 127 includes alot of rural area of south west lahore including christian dominated yohannabad and kachi abadis of Town Ship, green town and PTI has no strength here. NA 129 and 130 of Lahore are pure rural seats and baradari competition occurs here between ghurkis dials khokhars abbasis etc
So NA 119 may go to Mian Azhar but I find it still very hard
NA 120, 121, 122, 123 are very difficult to win because as I said above some rural abadis attached along, interior city, strong PML N presence and alot of Kashmiri, Butt bradari support of Kashmiri Sharif family. And ofcourse Nawaz Shahbaz Hamza Shahbaz will contest on these seats.
NA 124 can be won but its the seat where Chaudhry Aitezaz Ahsan contests. If he stands then PTI has no chance to win coz PML N supports him and the MMA also supports him.
NA 125 is Javed Hashmis Lahore seat and he may contest again a strong PML N seat. He won from here in 2002 and in 2008 both times.
NA 126 is a mixture of urban posh Garden town, Model Town etc and Iqbal Town and Awan Town etc. Imran Khan can win here only if Jamat e Islami supports him because Islami Jamiat is very strong here and ofcourse Mansora the Jamats Pakistan Head Office is situated in this constituency. Jamats secretary general Liaqat Baloch has won this seat after alliance with PML N in 1990 and 2002 and he is always an influential candidate here. PML N is expected to take it again if JI boycotts of fields its own candidate or allies with PML N. PTI can take it if JI allies with PTI but in such situation JI will as PTI to support JI and not JI to support PTI candidate.
NA 127 as mentioned above hard to win by PTI.
NA 128 (my own constituency) is perhaps the only constituency I believe PTI can win because of PPP- PML Q turn coat Zaheer Abbas Khokhar. PTI can win if PPP supports PTI as it happened in the Lahore byelection. Zaheer got very close to Saif ul Islam Khokhar of PML N. Zaheer is son in law of former PPP federal minister karamat ali khokhar who used to win here during Bhutto time and in 1988. He was not graduate so he fielded Zaheer Abbas as PPP candidate in 2002. Zaheer won but left PPP and joined Patriots group and became part of musharraf govt. Then he joined PML Q and lost in 2008. And in 2009 Zaheer joined PTI. So he can give PML N a strong fight and win this seat if his father in Law Karamat Ali Khokar doesnot stand here on PPP ticket. Other wise Afzal Khokhar current PML N MNA can win again.
So I would conclude 5 seats from KPK. Once seat from Islamabad on 50-50 chance 1 seat from Lahore and 6-8 seats from rest of urban punjab and perhaps no seat by now from South Punjab. Making a total of around 10-12 seats atmost.
Imran Khan will find very hard to win Mianwali seat coz the both the two strong baradaris, the niaziz lead by Inam ulllah Khan Niazi the transport tycon who owns Niazi bus services of Pakistan and Rokherees lead by Humair Hyatt Khan Rokheree are in PML N and hard to take Mianwali seat without their support.
Biggest lie of this century will be that Imran Khan wins more than 4-5 seats. If this was presidential election than Imran Khan was the elected president by this time but in parliamentary system he has no one to win seats. For example I am from Rawalpindi and ask my mother to vote for Imran but she refused to do so because we don't know who is Jazzy. Jazzy will never win from Rawalpindi especially when Sheikh Rasheed and other heavy weights are fights for that seat.
Imran Khan is not realistic and relying too much on student who will sleep whole day on election day. I bet most of our young are not registered in electoral roll. Just jalsa jaloos is not enough to win election.
Also, Imran is attacking Nawaz sharif more than anyone else. What I can see is that Zardari is really happy to see that Imran Khan is helping PPP in damaging PML. At the end of the day fight -between Imran and Nawaz will help Zardari to win Senate, General and then presidential election. I am not pro Nawaz but he is at least better than Zardari.
Imran should be realistic and should not over estimate his party. This is like day dreaming. I wish Imran to win but because he is not honest and giving false hope therefore I am not going to vote for him in near future. I will give vote to those who can restrict Zardari to win next elelction but Imran rather choose to help him.
Imran Khan is not realistic and relying too much on student who will sleep whole day on election day. I bet most of our young are not registered in electoral roll. Just jalsa jaloos is not enough to win election.
Also, Imran is attacking Nawaz sharif more than anyone else. What I can see is that Zardari is really happy to see that Imran Khan is helping PPP in damaging PML. At the end of the day fight -between Imran and Nawaz will help Zardari to win Senate, General and then presidential election. I am not pro Nawaz but he is at least better than Zardari.
Imran should be realistic and should not over estimate his party. This is like day dreaming. I wish Imran to win but because he is not honest and giving false hope therefore I am not going to vote for him in near future. I will give vote to those who can restrict Zardari to win next elelction but Imran rather choose to help him.
this is the last chance for pakistani's to save Pakistan. All pakistani's should exercise their voting right carefully this time.
we need fresh faces and people with vision, abilities and sincerity. I am overseas pakistani and i know the only man that can do this job is Imran khan
we need fresh faces and people with vision, abilities and sincerity. I am overseas pakistani and i know the only man that can do this job is Imran khan
mahmoodsani
Councller (250+ posts)
i think pti would get majority in two subaas .....punjab and pukhtoonkha....and many chances of balochistan aswell
paki-lover
MPA (400+ posts)
Apni seat jeet jaya to kaafi
usman6062
MPA (400+ posts)
He shall clean sweep these politicians because we are not sheeps.....we are human beings and we shall vote for a person who care other humans.
Zardari aur Nawaz....ubb teray dao mein nayi aanay walay.....bohat bariyan lay lein...ubb aik bari hamari....tum say ehtasaab lainay ki...inshAllah.
Zardari aur Nawaz....ubb teray dao mein nayi aanay walay.....bohat bariyan lay lein...ubb aik bari hamari....tum say ehtasaab lainay ki...inshAllah.
GreenMaple
Prime Minister (20k+ posts)
An utterly stupid and brainless survey!
The choice is only between 5-30. What if someone wants a number between 30-342, without the option of 'sweep'?
Go do your homework again.
The choice is only between 5-30. What if someone wants a number between 30-342, without the option of 'sweep'?
Go do your homework again.
