Election 2018: PTI next Federal Government

[crankthskunk]

I have come to the conclusion after going through the estimated surveys by different organisations that PTI would form the next Federal Government.

I am not using any of my polls or hunch, but basing it on the surveys available to us. We know the reputation of Gallup Pakistan (nothing to do with Gallup International).

Gillani is a know PMLN pet.

Lets start by analysis of surveys by Roshan Pakistan research. In their latest results they are showing that PTI would get 94 seats(28.9%) in the NA.

To reach 137 seats, the bear minimum to obtain a simple majority PTI would be needing help from other parties and independents.

The same surveys says that;

1- GDA 8 Seats
2- BAP 4 Seats
3- PSP 2 Seats
4- PMLQ 4 Seats
5- AML 2 Seats
6- Ind 22 Seats

Total 42+98 = 140

Simple maths says that despite very conservative estimates from the polling organisation, PTI can make the nextgovernment. If PTI exceed this survey by 5%

PTI would end up on 105 Seats and if exceed it by 10% it would end up with 110 seats. There is a huge factor of undecided vote, which could be anything between 15 to 25%. Pti to take 15% of that undecided vote to end up with 130 to 140 seats on their own.

Other surveys' analysis in later post.

 

[sher18]

Inshallah.

 

[sher18]

Whats the position in Interior Sindh ? Is there a chance to defeat Zardari Mafia...

 

[Birdie101]

I have come to the conclusion after going through the estimated surveys by different organisations that PTI would form the next Federal Government.
I am not using any of my polls or hunch, but basing it on the surveys available to us. We know the reputation of Gallup Pakistan (nothing to do with Gallup International).
Gillani is a know PMLN pet.
Lets start by analysis of surveys by Roshan Pakistan research. In their latest results they are showing that PTI would get 94 seats(28.9%) in the NA.
To reach 137 seats, the bear minimum to obtain a simple majority PTI would be needing help from other parties and independents.
The same surveys says that;
1- GDA 8 Seats
2- BAP 4 Seats
3- PSP 2 Seats
4- PMLQ 4 Seats
5- AML 2 Seats
6- Ind 22 Seats

Total 42+98 = 140

Simple maths says that despite very conservative estimates from the polling organisation, PTI can make the next government. If PTI exceed this survey by 5%
PTI would end up on 105 Seats and if exceed it by 10% it would end up with 110 seats. There is a huge factor of undecided vote, which could be anything between 15 to 25%. Pti to take 15% of that undecided vote to end up with 130 to 140 seats on their own.
Other surveys' analysis in later post.

I think, It's a reality that pti will form next federal government at-least.If they get numbers aka 110 + seats then no issue.If they don't aka 90+ seats then expect patriotic group in pml-n.Hamid Mir said today that even Shahbaz knows it that a patriotic/forward group will be created in pml-n after election.

 

[Dantheman]

PMLQ will get two seats, not four. AML is getting one(the other one is postponed because of habit abbasi’s punishment).
I think pti will cross hundred but may be not cross 110, in my humble opinion.
God speed Imran Khan!

 

[jony1]

I think PTI will take more than 150 Inshallah. Reason behind while every one knows that PMLN is no more, only Media can talk cannot poll vote for them. and this time there is no chance for PPP MQM or PMLN for rigging. so I am sure rezults will be in favour of PTI anyway. Voters sees its PTI time so swing votes always goes to popular leader.

 

[Dantheman]

And I also think that if pti wins (which it will, inshallah) pti will form provincial govt in both kpk and Punjab. Yes there will be seats where NA seat is won by pti but MPA seat by noon but they will not be significant enough. So you will form provincial govt in Punjab too.

 

[crankthskunk]

I think PTI will take more than 150 Inshallah. Reason behind while every one knows that PMLN is no more, only Media can talk cannot poll vote for them. and this time there is no chance for PPP MQM or PMLN for rigging. so I am sure rezults will be in favour of PTI anyway. Voters sees its PTI time so swing votes always goes to popular leader.

I hope what you say is right. I am not worried about the pundits, they can say what they like. I am more concerned about people's reactions in many TV programs. Many says despite clear proofs of fraud and corruption that it is all lies. Unless the TV just concentrate on one section filled with PMLN supporters. The mentality of Pakistani people is the problem. In the UK or any other civilised country, the leader found with such huge corruption, the party would have been dead, espeically if it is on the name of the thief himself.

 

[Educationist]

:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:​

 

[Imran the legend]

I think PTI will take more than 150 Inshallah. Reason behind while every one knows that PMLN is no more, only Media can talk cannot poll vote for them. and this time there is no chance for PPP MQM or PMLN for rigging. so I am sure rezults will be in favour of PTI anyway. Voters sees its PTI time so swing votes always goes to popular leader.

Agree. That what I have been trying to tell these people but they don’t understand and they keep doing these silly little surveys but they keep watching and listening to Hamid Mir Suhail warich saleem safi idiot hafeezullah niazai. Said ul rahman, Asma sharazi all idiot part of corrupt mafia in media on payroll like there channels owners. Sharif family is locked in jail.
Shabaz sharif no votes plus model town
Ppp mqm can’t rigg the elections
Pmln can’t rigg the elections
Can’t do printing of votes
Still they giving silly estimates pti will 70 or 90 or 105 or 110 what rubbish

 

[Afaq Chaudhry]

 

[PappuChikna]

Scientific survey polls also include margin of error that provides you with a good range of certainity in their results.

yehaa tou aik champp mic lay kay market pohonch jaata hai aur apnay interviews ko survey ka naam day kay bhashan dayta phrta hai

 

[Sher ka shikari]

I've watched dozens of programs over the past week or so of public surveys and khota mentality is still prevalent among the majority of illiterate voters. Unfortunately they seen to be the majority of people in Punjab constituencies.

So PTI is going to sweep in north and south punjab. Central seems out of reach.

 

[karachii]

ooh bhai hamaei pata hai tujhay per post k paisay miltay hai, mager har jagah apni tang naa arayaa ker

 

[Ali.Pakistani]

چچا سراج اور مولانا کا الحاق وقت کی اہم ضرورت تھی ورنہ دونوں ہے اس الیکشن میں فارغ ہو جاتے، چچا سراج کو خاص طور پے​

 

[Afaq Chaudhry]

ooh bhai hamaei pata hai tujhay per post k paisay miltay hai, mager har jagah apni tang naa arayaa ker

تبدیلی والی لوجک

:D:D

 

[PIND-WALA]

Fed government is almost decided that PTI will be in majority. I think real fight Punjab , Which party wins. If PMLN wins which I doubt then no change in the situation of the people , If PTI or Ch Nisar and Ind win it then there is some hope that they will improve the lives of the people.

 

[kayawish]

I've watched dozens of programs over the past week or so of public surveys and khota mentality is still prevalent among the majority of illiterate voters. Unfortunately they seen to be the majority of people in Punjab constituencies.

So PTI is going to sweep in north and south punjab. Central seems out of reach.

i also think so :( PTI will take about 80-90 seats.100 seems to be impossible ..

 

[crankthskunk]

Dunya latest figures put PTI in Punjab and KPK to get 81 seats. Add what is expected from Sind 4/5 seats and Fata 5/6 seats. The total comes to about 90+.

With such results, PTI would struggle to form the government, unless there are more independent than expected. PPP seats are petty much in the areas, where PTI didn't made any inroads. I have always thought that PTI Sind's leadership is worse of them all. They are all talk show warriors, not ready to put in the hard work require to make inroads in masses. Imran cannot do everything himself. Yesterday's jalsa proven, IK has massive following in Karachi. Unfortunately, PTI local leadership is not willing to put this following in to the support for PTI. IF they were in position to take over 10/15 seats in Karachi, which they could have, given the position of MQM in Karachi now. But they have missed the boat.
They have put so much efforts in Lahore, but why not in Karachi!!!

 

[islamabadi]

Day before 2013 elections....all the internet ninjas on this site and Keyboard warriors were saying PTI is going to sweep...we know what happeened......my estimate is PTI at 90 seats.....PMLN 85...PPP at 50.....MMA 10...MQM 8....In Punjab provincial assembly the only way to form govenrment will be if Ch Nisar breaks at least 20 MPAs....and supports PTI candidate....