| Waqas Aslam Rana |
| Writing in The Prince, Niccolo Machiavelli says: The promise given was a necessity of the past: the word broken is a necessity of the present. The insights of this great sage into the ultimate game, the one for political power, have withstood the test of time. They apply today as much as in 1532, the year in which his greatest treatise was published. So who better to turn to than Machiavelli in trying to understand the frenetic deal making and breaking leading up to elections in Pakistan? With about three months to go, the seemingly hamstrung political entities in the country are suddenly moving about with the reflexes of wild animals. The MQM has pulled out of the Sindh government, while the PPP has scrapped the local governance law in the province in order to appease Sindhi nationalists. In the centre it remains in alliance with the Qatil league. Nawaz Sharif has brought the ghost of the IJI back from the dead through a string of new alliances, albeit this time without support from higher powers. Some of the PML-Ns odd bedfellows in the elections will be the PML-F in Sindh, Jamaat-e-Islami and the ultimate political gymnast Maulana Fazlur Rehman, of diesel fame. In their quest for power, it seems the traditional political parties have once again gone the route of drawing room deals at the expense of the larger electorate. With the exception of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who upset the established order in 1970, this formula has always worked in Pakistan. But will it again? While predicting the future is a dangerous business, I would venture to say that the answer is probably no. Although Machiavelli recognised no room for morality in the art of maintaining political power, he also observed that one who becomes a prince through the favour of the people should be careful not to oppress them. And God knows our princes have oppressed the people plenty. So the real question is: will the masses finally realise this and come out to vote? This is inherently difficult to answer. Conventional analysis would suggest that a significant change in the political status quo is unlikely. A parliamentary system ensures that forming a government is subject to local constituency level outcomes. The intricate system of patronage along ethnic and other divides runs deep, through which even the state machinery has been captured by the established political parties. Add to this the awful law and order situation, and it seems unlikely that Pakistanis will be able to affect a major change through the ballot. These are certainly tall odds. However, there are other factors that have the capacity for upsetting this calculus. First of all, these last five years have been unique in Pakistans history. For the first time a democratically elected government is on the verge of completing its full term. What it means is that potential voters will get a chance to rate their rulers performance in a full tenure for the very first time. Add to this another first an independent judiciary and a stronger election commission, at least on paper. While these developments are important, the real reason I am optimistic for a meaningful change is the unprecedented demographic and social shifts in recent years. The youth bulge in Pakistan has exploded, and its population pyramid is heavily skewed towards young people. This large constituency of millions of young and frustrated voters could be a game changer. To complement this demographic trend, potentially favourable to an impending political change, we have the immensely under-studied phenomenon of urbanisation in Pakistan. There are no reliable estimates, but it is safe to say that a majority of the population today lives in urban or semi-urban areas. This is particularly important in key battleground provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The growing middle class in these areas is predominantly young and politically aware thanks to the vibrant media. Is it not possible that they may decide to hold their political overlords accountable this time? The only party seemingly positioning itself to ride this potential wave of change is the PTI. Imran Khan was originally criticised for focusing on intra-party elections so close to the national polls. Pundits thought that this move had caused his party to lose momentum. However, with the results of the intra-party elections rolling in, it seems Imran has got this decision right. Consider: in his home constituency of Mianwali, Imran Khans cousin Inamullah Niazi lost the district election. Similarly, there are other stories of common folk grabbing party positions. Through these intra-party elections, the PTI is developing an organic link to its constituents that was lacking so far. It is also giving an opportunity for younger leaders to emerge, thereby tapping into the key demographic group mentioned above. This still may not be enough for a clear majority in the centre, since the PML-N and the PPP have many tricks up their sleeves. However, imagine for a moment that the PTI at least forms governments in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? Or just one province? Even such limited success will be a big change, since the current form of the constitution allows much greater autonomy to provinces, and hence greater chance for provincial governments to perform if they have the desired will. It is clear that the PTI is the only party banking on a popular awakening. All the rest have revealed their cards, with nothing new to show. The people of Pakistan will soon get a chance to make their choice. The writer is an international affairs consultant. Email:[email protected] |
Vote for PTI..........Vote for Change..........Vote for a Naya Pakistan.....In sha Allah
