1 Question for PTI - Imran trash talks IMF & World Bank but his budget suggests otherwise

[Muhammad Umar Farooq]

if the author is not fully convinced ... another rep is "so if u treat urself beggar from ur heart so u cant stop ur hand for the bheek ..." the other thing is motivation and commitment towards ur goal, ... i m amazed u r saying sab pakistani tax dety han ... for ur information only 1.5 m people in pakistan people submits tax returns, which is not even 1% of out total population ...
in 2002 14 lack lira of turkey is equal to 1 dollar, now lira is almost equal to dollar ... wahan kiya hua >??>> ek sacha leader aaya ... i just say for the people like u ... "if u r not part of the solution, u r part of the problem" .....

pakistan has biggest reserves of coal of almost 50 billion ton from which we can produce almost 20000 megawat electricity for 50 years, we have greatest copper reserves from chitral to balochistan .... agriculture system n etc etc ....

 

[AsifAmeer]

I love you man... An amazing question/point to be raised..

FOLKS! YOU HAVE PEOPLE AMONG YA'll with VISION! Dont look at 1 person for all the solutions. Try to find answers yourself too. God has created this world and its affairs are fascinating for the human mind. Ponder upon them.

Now to your question. Money is a medium to measure economic value. Theek? But when the money supply is grown thru deficit spending and credit creation, how can you honestly measure an economy against money thats changing all the time too? But when thats done, signals go haywire. Thats why US GDP is highest. Thats why Japan's GDP exceed US due to its asset bubble in the 80s.

Deficit spending will eventually force a currency devaluation causing pressure on Balance of Payment and Foreign reserves. BoP imbalance will swell, adding more to external debt and inflate the existing outstanding external debt. Makes sense?

I remember once in 1990s Japans economy temporarily became this size of USA's economy. How is it going to help Pakistan if after 5 years of PTI govt the exchange rate of PKR doubles and equals INR. Does that mean the GDP will rise and with that the DEBT will also rise?

 

[AsifAmeer]

Honestly I am pleasantly surprised to see the response. Some of the comments and discussions are simply outstanding. The quality of comments on this thread are far far superior comparatively. Point is, if you bring something logical on the table, you get the responses accordingly. Some folks I think created siasat accounts just to repond to me.. lol. I am humbled. lol.

@AsifAmeer : Bro thank you for getting so many people involved in the topic. Your question is so spot on and logical that it has forced so many people to think about budgets and policies. Personally I did not expect PTI or any party, even JI if they were given full mandate somehow to break out of the vicious circle. The measures required to make a completely balanced budget would be such a tough pill to swallow that any political party, no matter how revolutionary its ideology is, would find it almost impossible to take. Take an example of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. I read a news piece on this same forum a few days ago that even they have asked for some contribution from IMF, and have couthed the interest rate as service charge.

May I ask, given all the political, international, local business, bureaucratic and local interest group pressure, what would your suggestion be to balance the budget?

 

[AsifAmeer]

[MENTION=23690]rfarooqi[/MENTION] brought an excellent example that Even egypt's revolution succumbed to the IMF. Why? because Egypt didnt do its homework! Egypt was called the bread basket of the world! Aaj dekho. kiya huwa?

Bohot simple si baat. If you are living beyond your means, the one picking your tab will be insulting you every step of the way while making policies for you that benefits them, not you.

If Govt wants to spend more, it needs to collect the taxes 1st then spend it. Where am I being unreasonable?

My guess given the ground realities they will keep borrowing but lay out a path to wean themselves off in the long term. I am sure if you pester them enough they will come back with this reply. There are two ways to look at it - one is that they are in denial and living in a fantasy land and the other scenario is that they know and realize the gravity of the situation and know what to do and know that the steps to get there will be painful and that this process will be long drawn out. I am hoping for everyone's sake that its the latter....

 

[mrk123]

@rfarooqi brought an excellent example that Even egypt's revolution succumbed to the IMF. Why? because Egypt didnt do its homework! Egypt was called the bread basket of the world! Aaj dekho. kiya huwa?

Well revolutions by their nature are not calculated and specially the spontaneous kind as we witnessed in Egypt. It was mere 18 days of planning and most of it was spent on figuring out how to topple a strong man and how to avoid getting killed or hurt by the security forces.

I don't know what will happen with this current government in Egypt or for that matter in any of the other countries that were successful in toppling the dictators but we need to give them more time. I think it will be too harsh on any government, whether with a liberal or religious bent, to expect them to straighten the mess in mere months that took decades to create.

Bohot simple si baat. If you are living beyond your means, the one picking your tab will be insulting you every step of the way while making policies for you that benefits them, not you.

If Govt wants to spend more, it needs to collect the taxes 1st then spend it. Where am I being unreasonable?

No argument there with you and you are definitely not being unreasonable. We need people like you to keep politicians grounded.

One thing I can tell you is that the reaction of the PTI supporters is also understandable in the larger context. From their perspective its very simple: whats the alternative?

PTI may fail to deliver on all its promises but ANY improvement over the current performance is what we need at the moment.

Keep up the good work....

 

[Temojin]

[MENTION=24375]AsifAmeer[/MENTION] I have read all the replies and apart from a person or two, others are trying some weak area to shoot you in the head. You haven't provided your actual overview upon it as far as I think, have you?

 

[Vitamin_C]

If our exchange rate worsens, they only positive thing we can do is focus on international trade, our products will be cheaper. The govts only hope is to increase exports like Vietnam and China. Our exports are nothing compared to other smaler countries in south east asia.

 

[AsifAmeer]

Acha eak aur baat.. Those yearly deficits.. when you add them all up, comes to $53 billion! lol... Remember.. Money is interest carrying debt. So the Govt is paying interest on this newly created money too...lol.. How messed up is that?

Thats why I want to see Money be switched from debt to equity. Govt should just be able to print out money and spend it. Not supporting deficit spending but am against deficit "financing".

Fiscal deficit of $17.7bn. 8.4% of $211bn. If the Gdp is to grow at an average of 6% a year for 5 years. GDP now $211bn At end of first year. Growth: $12.66bn. Total at end of year: $223.66bn End of 2nd year. Growth $13.42bn. Total Gdp: $237bn End of 3rd year. Growth $14.22bn. Total Gdp: $251.22bn End of 4th year. Growth $15.07bn. Total Gdp $266.3 bn End of 5th year. Growth $16bn. Total $282.3bn If deficit remained the same throughout the 5 year period 17.7 bn. it is now 6.27% of Gdp $282.3 bn. To achieve fiscal deficit of 4.5%. The deficit has to be reduced to $12.7bn. A reduction of $5b/year at the end of the 5th year. Revenue from taxes at the end of the 5th year should be $42.3bn.. I think we are going to depend on IMF for at least another 5 years. Another thing that we missed is trade, we have to finance our trade deficits, but if the govt can put up a surplus in trade like in Mush govt, it might help us.

 

[sajad]

[MENTION=24375]AsifAmeer[/MENTION] brother i thought you are a decent, respectable person. We people know policies of khans team has many loopholes, but dont you know if we project our own loopholes this paid media and all the rivals who are on the lookout of any defect and they project it to people. Don't you know the people of Pakistan, not all are sensible, not all are wealthy, not all have televisions and internet to know who is lying and who is speaking truth, they still vote for PPP, doesn't it reflect it that they are illiterate. So we really dont need to tell all the truth to people, its just that khans intentions are not wrong, even if he is unable to eradicate whole deficit and all the wrong done in 65 years, at least he will try to put PAK on the right path and then we will have firm institutions who themselves will find their way to prosperity. Please for GOD sake even if you find any loopholes do debate them in constructive way, dont represent them in this way. or else there will be nooras or zardari, and then there will not be 4.5% deficit but a deficit in double figures and whom will you ask for it ? nawaz ? he will be in london .

 

[AsifAmeer]

What happened in Tunisia and Egypt was a result of "ZIRP" - Zero Interest Rate Policy of the central bankers. These so-called Muslim Scholars like to claim Muslim-bedaari.. It amazes me. When you have a hungry crowd who cant feed their child, they will go to any extreme to feed their child. The global splashing capital that moved into Commodity asset class caused severe inflation into commodities, simply killing profit margins of the exporting countries with already low margins. Those who say China is the red dragon, I would want to see the expression on their faces when China blows up. These arent predictions but simple common sense. You cant produce the entire world's toys and not have anything for your own kids. That day I saw Fish in the Grocery store from CHINA! here in the US... Fish from China!

I feel PTI should level with the people. Maintain their integrity. Dont promise which I know they cant deliver. My goal is not to trash PTI but see it sheer into a practical approach. Read all the analysis of PTI's economic reforms, and almost every analyst said "wishful thinking". Dont give opposition that chance.

Just because Pakistanis only have PTI to vote for doesnt mean they shouldnt demand more from PTI.

Well revolutions by their nature are not calculated and specially the spontaneous kind as we witnessed in Egypt. It was mere 18 days of planning and most of it was spent on figuring out how to topple a strong man and how to avoid getting killed or hurt by the security forces.

I don't know what will happen with this current government in Egypt or for that matter in any of the other countries that were successful in toppling the dictators but we need to give them more time. I think it will be too harsh on any government, whether with a liberal or religious bent, to expect them to straighten the mess in mere months that took decades to create.



No argument there with you and you are definitely not being unreasonable. We need people like you to keep politicians grounded.

One thing I can tell you is that the reaction of the PTI supporters is also understandable in the larger context. From their perspective its very simple: whats the alternative?

PTI may fail to deliver on all its promises but ANY improvement over the current performance is what we need at the moment.

Keep up the good work....

 

[AsifAmeer]

Temo, you have to admit.. Some comments were pretty decent! I mean the quality of discussion here was pretty good!

Now to your question. You are right. I have not suggested any solution here... YET. And all criticism is useless without a solution. My solution is pending publication.

U wanna help me publish it some urdu newspaper? Would need a translator too...

Volunteer... anybody?

@AsifAmeer I have read all the replies and apart from a person or two, others are trying some weak area to shoot you in the head. You haven't provided your actual overview upon it as far as I think, have you?

 

[mrk123]

What happened in Tunisia and Egypt was a result of "ZIRP" - Zero Interest Rate Policy of the central bankers. These so-called Muslim Scholars like to claim Muslim-bedaari.. It amazes me. When you have a hungry crowd who cant feed their child, they will go to any extreme to feed their child. The global splashing capital that moved into Commodity asset class caused severe inflation into commodities, simply killing profit margins of the exporting countries with already low margins.

I may not understand all the economic terms or the factors behind it but I do get the tangible point you make about people not being able to feed their children. These things always happen either due to pure greed or incompetence or corruption or lack of vision or living beyond the means or all or some of the above. But this phenomenon is not limited to the Muslim world - other countries all over the world succumb to this too. Case in point - countries in southern Europe.

Those who say China is the red dragon, I would want to see the expression on their faces when China blows up. These arent predictions but simple common sense. You cant produce the entire world's toys and not have anything for your own kids. That day I saw Fish in the Grocery store from CHINA! here in the US... Fish from China!

If that surprised you then imagine my surprise at finding Pakistani prawns at an American Grocery store 22 years ago :-)

I feel PTI should level with the people. Maintain their integrity. Dont promise which I know they cant deliver. My goal is not to trash PTI but see it sheer into a practical approach. Read all the analysis of PTI's economic reforms, and almost every analyst said "wishful thinking". Dont give opposition that chance.

Just because Pakistanis only have PTI to vote for doesnt mean they shouldnt demand more from PTI.

As I said before - no argument there. Questions should be asked and answers should be provided. Positive and constructive debate (not shouting matches!) is always productive.

 

[AsifAmeer]

Export based economies has their own perils.. Look at China and Germany. Key is a balanced economy. Key is a Balanced fiscal budget. When things are balanced, risk of sliding down the wrong side is reduced.

The article I wrote about demanding PKR for PK exports, I dont have a clue what that policy would do to PKR in the short run lekin it will definitely decouple the Pak economy from the major economic mess thats going around the globe...

If our exchange rate worsens, they only positive thing we can do is focus on international trade, our products will be cheaper. The govts only hope is to increase exports like Vietnam and China. Our exports are nothing compared to other smaler countries in south east asia.

 

[AsifAmeer]

Sajad, my allegiance is to truth. I am not a spokesman of PTI. nor any other party. If I see any harm done to the ordinary people by economic policies, I will share it. You can either pinpoint flaws in my analysis or help share the word.

Not here to hurt or discourage PTI but just to inform people and force them to think on their own. Mujhe nahi lagta what I have shared here is very tough to understand. And I have taken great pains to reply to almost every single post here in detail. If just one of them gets curious about Economics and Financial issues and starts writing in the media, that would be time well spent by me...

Raha sawal Noora league aur Wadere ka.. to... Allah in logoun ko aur in ki aulaadoun ko hidayat de... bas thora paas bula kar...

...Ameen to kaho!

@AsifAmeer brother i thought you are a decent, respectable person. We people know policies of khans team has many loopholes, but dont you know if we project our own loopholes this paid media and all the rivals who are on the lookout of any defect and they project it to people. Don't you know the people of Pakistan, not all are sensible, not all are wealthy, not all have televisions and internet to know who is lying and who is speaking truth, they still vote for PPP, doesn't it reflect it that they are illiterate. So we really dont need to tell all the truth to people, its just that khans intentions are not wrong, even if he is unable to eradicate whole deficit and all the wrong done in 65 years, at least he will try to put PAK on the right path and then we will have firm institutions who themselves will find their way to prosperity. Please for GOD sake even if you find any loopholes do debate them in constructive way, dont represent them in this way. or else there will be nooras or zardari, and then there will not be 4.5% deficit but a deficit in double figures and whom will you ask for it ? nawaz ? he will be in london .

 

[mrk123]

Temo, you have to admit.. Some comments were pretty decent! I mean the quality of discussion here was pretty good!

Now to your question. You are right. I have not suggested any solution here... YET. And all criticism is useless without a solution. My solution is pending publication.

U wanna help me publish it some urdu newspaper? Would need a translator too...

Volunteer... anybody?

I would like to volunteer [MENTION=25067]BuTurabi[/MENTION] or [MENTION=9623]moazzamniaz[/MENTION] ;-)

 

[bulgars004]

@AsifAmeer

بھائی کس پنگے میں ڈال دیا سب کو۔۔ یار مجھ سمیت اکثریت اکنامکس کو نہیں سمجہتی اس فورم پر۔۔۔ اس لیے جو کوئی بھی کوومنٹس کر رہا ہے اس کی اپروچ وہ نہیں ہے جو آپ چاہتے ہو۔ ہاں ہم پی ٹی آئی والوں کو ایک بیماری ضرور ہے کہ ہم لوگ جذباتی ہو جاتے ہیں۔اور وجہ بھی آپ کو معلوم ہے کہ نوجوان نسل کو پاکستان سے پیار ہے اور وہ جب پاکستان اور اپنا مستقبل روشن نہیں دیکھتے تو ماضی کو دیکھتے ہیں اور ڈھونڈتے ہیں ان لوگوں کو جو پاکستان پر یہ وقت لائے۔ مگر وہ لوگ آج پھر معصومیت کی چادر اوڑھے انہیں لوٹنے کی کوشش کر رہے ہیں اور یہ لوگ آج بھی بدماشی اور اسلحے کے زور پر اس نوجوان نسل پر غلبہ چاہتے ہیں۔۔ اور کمزور لوگ اپنا غصہ اسہی طرح نکال سکتے ہیں یا شائد اس مرتبہ ووٹ کے ذریعے نکالیں۔۔ باقی آصف امیر بھائی جو بات آپ کہ رہے ہو جی ڈی پی ٪٥۔٤ والی تو یہ اتنی مشکل بھی نہیں ہے یار جتنا آپ نے اس کو اس تھریڈ میں بنا دیا۔ صرف سسٹم کو چلانے والے چند مخلص لوگ چاہیں۔۔۔ ملائیشیا کے حالات مہاتیر محمد سے پہلے کے اور اس کے بعد کے دیکھ لو۔ شائد آپ کا مسئلہ حل ہو جائے جو اس فورم پر نہیں ہو رہا۔ الله تعالی ہم سب کا اور پاکستان کا حامی ناصر ہو۔ آمین

 

[Murtaza323]

Well, whatever the result is. I am glad to see that our youth takes interest in such political/National issues whereas our so called leaders are busy in looting this country..Nice debate.

 

[UKPakistani]

if the author is not fully convinced ... another rep is "so if u treat urself beggar from ur heart so u cant stop ur hand for the bheek ..." the other thing is motivation and commitment towards ur goal, ... i m amazed u r saying sab pakistani tax dety han ... for ur information only 1.5 m people in pakistan people submits tax returns, which is not even 1% of out total population ...
in 2002 14 lack lira of turkey is equal to 1 dollar, now lira is almost equal to dollar ... wahan kiya hua >??>> ek sacha leader aaya ... i just say for the people like u ... "if u r not part of the solution, u r part of the problem" .....

pakistan has biggest reserves of coal of almost 50 billion ton from which we can produce almost 20000 megawat electricity for 50 years, we have greatest copper reserves from chitral to balochistan .... agriculture system n etc etc ....

Just for your clarification, As great as the Turkish PM is (truely)

Turkey just revalued its currency and dropped SIX zeros from the end, so that 1 million old lira became ONE new Turkish Lira (2005 I believe)

 

[Temojin]

Temo, you have to admit.. Some comments were pretty decent! I mean the quality of discussion here was pretty good!

Now to your question. You are right. I have not suggested any solution here... YET. And all criticism is useless without a solution. My solution is pending publication.

U wanna help me publish it some urdu newspaper? Would need a translator too...

Volunteer... anybody?

Sent the review to you. Urdu ke liye koi issue nahi jab voh finalize ho jayega ker leinge.

 

[ZeeKhan]

Dear Asif,

You are genius... Lets assume Imran Khan lies and you being true and better economist can provide better answer to these.
Can I ask you how any government is going to bridge this deficit?
Please let me know the name of countries who are in surplus budget?
Please also let me know what is the budget deficit of the country you are living in and how they fill this gap?
Do we have any other source of getting loans like IMF, World Bank, ADB
What is QE (Quantitative Easing)?
Why government around the world floats their short, medium and long term bonds?

I hope you will provide logical answers and will not turn this into futile debate. If you will not provide answers to these questions, I would assume that all you are doing is to get attention on the forum as you know most people are PTI supporters. I would suggest not to use these things to get a cheap fame..

Thanks
Zaid