I would slightly disagree with your analysis. Indeed, Generals meddle in political affairs. But, they can’t make Hero out of ZERO. IK’s rise was gradual. Even before landmark Jalsa of Lahore ( October 2011), he was getting good crowds in many other cities as well but was being ignored by media. He was making space in Punjab from 2008-2011 due to very friendly opposition by PMLN despite the fact that PPP’s performance was not that good at that time. After Hamid Mir’s incident of 2014, Military sided with IK when Nawaz sided with Geo/Mir. IK relentlessly sold dreams to young generation from 2007-2018 which resulted in big big jalsas all across the country. What military did was that it helped him during Panama papers in hunting down Nawaz. Another thing that military did was that it made South Punjab politicians joined PTI just before elections. As far as polling day ( 25th July, 2018), it was largely fair and there was no big issue in counting either.
Fast forward. IK and Buzdar’s performances over the past 32 months have completely demoralized youth in Punjab. Result is that PMLN is once again in powerful position in Punjab. Military cannot make a very unpopular government win the next elections. That’s why they called five federal ministers in GHQ and showed their concern over government’s Performance in Punjab. See following article of Daily Dawn.
Buzdar is here till this complex situation can unravel to produce a convenient solution.
www.dawn.com
Military wants that Buzdar be replaced with some dynamic and intelligent CM. But, as we know, IK will never change Buzdar. He is so stubborn that he will accept defeat in next elections but will not change Buzdar. Under these circumstances, Military can’t make PTI win the next elections. So, what options then they have? Perhaps, PPP. But, then PPP’s condition is abysmal in Punjab. At max, they can get few more seats from Southern Punjab. But, that’s far from forming government in Center. It then leaves Shehbaz Sharif and Ch Nisar as two most suitable persons for military to lead in Center and Punjab, respectively. They wouldn’t be as accommodating for military as IK has been ( due to some pressure from Nawaz and his daughter), but they still can easily work with military in good environment. However, Military will have to leave some space for Shehbaz so that he could satisfy his elder brother too. Under all possible scenarios, I don’t see IK/PTI going past 2023, primarily due to their increasing unpopularity in Punjab. Military cannot do landslide rigging. It can only do few adjustments here and there.