SBP cuts economic growth forecast to 3.5-4%

Will_Bite

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Read the news again:
Current account deficit is not $18 billion.
Im talking about the FY18 deficit left behind by PMLN govt. That is not getting written off. Has to be paid.
FY 19 targeted deficit is under $10 billion...almost half of what PMLN left us with. If we achieve that, it would be a major financial success for PTI.
 

insouciant

Minister (2k+ posts)
Good Question!

I hope you understand basic Mathematics. Memorize below and show to all the Patwaris that Fawad Chaudhry was right that what these KUTTAY and HARAAM ZAADAYE have done in the past 10years, even your WORST Enemy can't do in a century! 🤬

Jul '08
Feb '09
Difference
Source
A. Total Reserves
$16.9B​
$14.9B​
$2.0B​
SBP
B. Total Debt
$95.1B​
$101.6B​
$6.5B​
Q2'18 from TradingEco + $2B Loan received from UAE+Saudi in Jan/Feb. SBP updates data Qtrly.
C. Total Excess Money
$8.5B​
A + B
D. Current Account Payments in FY19
(-)$8.5B
SBP
E.Current Acct Deficit(-)$2.13B(-)$0.36BNASBP


C=D So you can see that the money went in Current Account Payments!!

Now Thank PM Imran Khan and FM Asad Umer to reduce our monthly current account deficit from $2.1B/month to $360Million/month now (As shown in E) and saving us from inevitable bankruptcy!!!

GANJOOON ki policy left us to pay $2.1B/month from reserves to just run the country!!! 😡😡😡😡

Also, Go and Bring Mafroor Ishaq Dar back now and please send LAANAT to Farrukh Saleem as well for his Propagandist tweet as I can bet that the likes of him/Miftah/Ahsan Iqbal definitely see and know these numbers and still misguide public to keep fooling the innocent/illiterate public and keep their politics alive!!



ہم صرف یہ پوچھ رہے ہیں کہ اتنے قرضے کدھر جا رہے ہیں ، ڈویلپمنٹ سب بند کردی ، سبسڈی سب بند کردی ، کچھ نیا نہیں بنارہے تو پیسے کدھر جارہے ، قرض ادا کرنے میں اب تک صرف سات سو ملین خرچ ہوۓ
Im talking about the FY18 deficit left behind by PMLN govt. That is not getting written off. Has to be paid.
FY 19 targeted deficit is under $10 billion...almost half of what PMLN left us with. If we achieve that, it would be a major financial success for PTI.
اتنا ظلم تو نہ کریں، ـــ ارسطو کا عہدہ احسن اقبال صاحب کا ٹریڈ مارک ہے -- وہ جوانی مین قتل و غارت مار دھاڑ کے عادی رہے ، انکی ناراضگی مول نہ لیں ـــ
Do you have anything susbstantial to say anytime?
 
Last edited:

Muhammad Jibran

Minister (2k+ posts)
Good Question!

I hope you understand basic Mathematics. Memorize below and show to all the Patwaris that Fawad Chaudhry was right that what these KUTTAY and HARAAM ZAADAYE have done in the past 10years, even your WORST Enemy can't do in a century! 🤬

Jul '08
Feb '09
Difference
Source
A. Total Reserves
$16.9B​
$14.9B​
$2.0B​
SBP
B. Total Debt
$95.1B​
$101.6B​
$6.5B​
Q2'18 from TradingEco + $2B Loan received from UAE+Saudi in Jan/Feb. SBP updates data Qtrly.
C. Total Excess Money
$8.5B​
A + B
D. Current Account Payments in FY19
(-)$8.5B
SBP
E.Current Acct Deficit(-)$2.13B(-)$0.36BNASBP


C=D So you can see that the money went in Current Account Payments!!

Now Thank PM Imran Khan and FM Asad Umer to reduce our monthly current account deficit from $2.1B/month to $360Million/month now (As shown in E) and saving us from inevitable bankruptcy!!!

GANJOOON ki policy left us to pay $2.1B/month from reserves to just run the country!!! 😡😡😡😡

Also, Go and Bring Mafroor Ishaq Dar back now and please send LAANAT to Farrukh Saleem as well for his Propagandist tweet as I can bet that the likes of him/Miftah/Ahsan Iqbal definitely see and know these numbers and still misguide public to keep fooling the innocent/illiterate public and keep their politics alive!!
I think you have done you Masters in Economics from federal urdu university
.... BOP is not the only economic measure to ascertain the performance of an economy. It should be studied with others to give a true and complete picture.

When zardari got into power the current account deficit was $1.1 billion/month, and $13.3 billion / year. When he left the government it was $390 million/month and around $2billion/year.

So by judging it with your economics, Zardari did wonderfully well to stabilise the economy.......

In PMLN tenure mutiple mega projects were initiated which created a balance of payment issue, current government has reduce its developmental budget which has helped in decreasing the current deficit.

They have reduced their expenditures which in turn has slowed down the growth.

Child i don't know what you have achieved but it's time it discard it seriously.
 

insouciant

Minister (2k+ posts)
Babes!! Why do you like making fool of yourself by flashing your stupidity all over this forum?? Maana you are a Jahil, but you don't need to prove you are equally baighairat as well by shamelessly curating stories!

Go and take $40 Billion loans tomorrow and spend it to buy new cars, houses, sunglasses, and all the fancy stuff you can! And then look in the mirror and say: I'm Growing!! I'm Growing!! But when the bank would come and ask you to pay back the loan, then either run away like I$haq Dar or tell them I'm Fucked, I'm Fucked 😁😁

This is exactly what Ganjaye/Zardari Did!

All the growth was non-productive / import driven. Hence, all the loans were going towards consuming imported stuff!! See the 10yr graph of imports rising.
https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/imports


On the other hand, Exports remained flat/and fell down in Nawaz Sharif's era. See the 10yr graph

https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/exports

Now get the fuck out of here!

STUPID!! Useless person 😒

I think you have done you Masters in Economics from federal urdu university
.... BOP is not the only economic measure to ascertain the performance of an economy. It should be studied with others to give a true and complete picture.

When zardari got into power the current account deficit was $1.1 billion/month, and $13.3 billion / year. When he left the government it was $390 million/month and around $2billion/year.

So by judging it with your economics, Zardari did wonderfully well to stabilise the economy.......

In PMLN tenure mutiple mega projects were initiated which created a balance of payment issue, current government has reduce its developmental budget which has helped in decreasing the current deficit.

They have reduced their expenditures which in turn has slowed down the growth.

Child i don't know what you have achieved but it's time it discard it seriously.
 

Muhammad Jibran

Minister (2k+ posts)
Babes!! Why do you like making fool of yourself by flashing your stupidity all over this forum?? Maana you are a Jahil, but you don't need to prove you are equally baighairat as well by shamelessly curating stories!

Go and take $40 Billion loans tomorrow and spend it to buy new cars, houses, sunglasses, and all the fancy stuff you can! And then look in the mirror and say: I'm Growing!! I'm Growing!! But when the bank would come and ask you to pay back the loan, then either run away like I$haq Dar or tell them I'm Fucked, I'm Fucked 😁😁

This is exactly what Ganjaye/Zardari Did!

All the growth was non-productive / import driven. Hence, all the loans were going towards consuming imported stuff!! See the 10yr graph of imports rising.
https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/imports


On the other hand, Exports remained flat/and fell down in Nawaz Sharif's era. See the 10yr graph

https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/exports

Now get the fuck out of here!

STUPID!! Useless person 😒
LoL when i fucked your argument you became a monkey, jumping here and there :D

Still you are making arguments against yourself :) can't you even comprehend?

If having no growth in exports is bad, how about negative growth? What about tax revenue? Is it increasing or decreasing?

Besides, if PMLN took loans to build mega projects ,why is PTI taking loans? For loan repayments? So who will pay back current loans?

It's time to discard your economics degree, or you can have samosas or pakoras on it.
 
Last edited:

insouciant

Minister (2k+ posts)
You understand very well what I said but just you are acting like Abu jehal who continued defying the truth. Sleep on this thought! 😉😉 There's no difference between you and him!

And please do read economics 101! You don't even know what non sense you are talking. Economic growth has nothing to do with tax revenue!! OMG! No wonder munshi ishaq dar was able to make this qom a chootiya!! Now I understand why 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

And PMLN government took loans for Mega projects?? Tell me which projects and how many $$'s were taken for them?? Shabaash Einstein!! Bata!! Tell me project/$$ loan amount against it 🤓🤓


Seriously you are so ignorant to not know that they spent 75% of that debt to keep $$ rate constant so they can money launder at a cheap rate and used the rest to service debt.

I've already shown you what PTI has used the debt to stop the economy from bleeding that pmln left!! Get someone to translate it for you in urdu!!😒😒

LoL when i fucked your argument you became a monkey, jumping here and there :D

Still you are making arguments against yourself :) can't you even comprehend?

If having no growth in exports is bad, how about negative growth? What about tax revenue? Is it increasing or decreasing?

Besides, if PMLN took loans to build mega projects ,why is PTI taking loans? For loan repayments? So who will pay back current loans?

It's time to discard your economics degree, or you can have samosas or pakoras on it.
 

Muhammad Jibran

Minister (2k+ posts)
You understand very well what I said but just you are acting like Abu jehal who continued defying the truth. Sleep on this thought! 😉😉 There's no difference between you and him!

And please do read economics 101! You don't even know what non sense you are talking. Economic growth has nothing to do with tax revenue!! OMG! No wonder munshi ishaq dar was able to make this qom a chootiya!! Now I understand why 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

And PMLN government took loans for Mega projects?? Tell me which projects and how many $$'s were taken for them?? Shabaash Einstein!! Bata!! Tell me project/$$ loan amount against it 🤓🤓


Seriously you are so ignorant to not know that they spent 75% of that debt to keep $$ rate constant so they can money launder at a cheap rate and used the rest to service debt.

I've already shown you what PTI has used the debt to stop the economy from bleeding that pmln left!! Get someone to translate it for you in urdu!!😒😒
LoL when did i say tax revenue is a measure of economic growth :D ... Can't you even understand what i am saying..... :)

Enough chitrol for today ..... Do some better work than letting yourself being insulted again and again just to defend PTI.
 

insouciant

Minister (2k+ posts)
You are welcome for thanking me for educating you!
Now go and try to impress your muhalla walas that you do understand some numbers now! And brag in front of them this is how things work! 😁😁😁

LoL when did i say tax revenue is a measure of economic growth :D ... Can't you even understand what i am saying..... :)

Enough chitrol for today ..... Do some better work than letting yourself being insulted again and again just to defend PTI.
 

Rajarawal111

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)


The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has revised down its projection for real economic growth by half a percentage point, putting it in a range of 3.5-4% in the current fiscal year “mainly due to slowdown in growth of the agriculture sector and stabilization measures taken to preserve macroeconomic stability.”

“SBP has revised down its projection for real GDP (gross domestic product) growth during FY19 by 0.5 percentage point to 3.5-4.0%,” the central bank said in its second-quarter (Oct-Dec 2018) report on the state of economy on Monday.

The economy was set to slow down in the second half (January-June) as inflation was likely to rise further, revenue collection would drop and fiscal deficit would widen further, the central bank said.

“Regarding price pressures, inflation is expected to remain high in the second half of FY19,” it said. “CPI inflation (is projected) at 6.5-7.5% for the full year,” it added.

The SBP projected that the fiscal deficit would further deteriorate by 0.5% of GDP, which brought it close to the level hit in FY18.

Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) contracted further in the second quarter. Moreover, “given that public development spending, a key driver for private sector industrial activities, is unlikely to pick up anytime soon, the full-year outlook for manufacturing activities remains subdued,” the SBP said.

Furthermore, private consumption is going to remain lower due to a tighter monetary policy and pass through of exchange rate depreciation, which has resulted in both higher energy prices and core inflation. In addition, according to the SBP, the prospects for the upcoming wheat crop remain subdued in terms of growth.

All these aspects are going to constrain the services sector in the coming months as well,” it said.

Inflation is expected to remain high “due to the second round impact of recent exchange rate depreciations, upward adjustment in gas and electricity prices and higher budgetary borrowing from the SBP.”

However, the lagged impact of policy rate increases would be instrumental in keeping demand pressures under check. Acknowledging these risks, the SBP continues to project average CPI inflation at 6.5-7.5% for the full year.

As noted earlier, the primary deficit has increased further while there has been a sharp reduction in development expenditure in order to improve the fiscal position. This situation has become more challenging as the growth in current expenditure inched up to 17.3% in the first half as compared to 13.5% last year.

On the contrary, revenue collection contracted 2.4% in the same period as compared to the growth of 19.8% last year.

Since there is limited room to curtail government expenditure in coming months, it is the growth in revenue that will be instrumental in determining the overall fiscal position for FY19.

Incorporating the performance of revenue collection in the second half in the last four years, the SBP projected that the fiscal deficit would further deteriorate by 0.5% of GDP, which brought it close to the same level as in FY18.

Current account deficit

As for the external sector, while the current account deficit (CAD) improved $1.7 billion in first seven months of FY19, it was still high at $8.4 billion. “Some improvement is expected to continue in the remaining months
as imports are likely to contract further on account of moderating domestic demand and relatively low international oil prices as compared to the beginning of FY19.”

However, merchandise exports are expected to miss the target due to waning demand in certain export destinations.
Additionally, this is compounded by competitive pressures in the international arena and the lack of diversified and higher value added products that can effectively utilise the export quotas allowed under specific trade agreements.

“Meanwhile on the external financing front, the efforts of the government have started to materialise in the shape of bilateral inflows from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and China. Some of these inflows have already been realised while the rest are due in 2HFY19.”

Along with the Saudi deferred oil payment facility, these inflows have an important role in meeting the external financing gap for FY19, thereby, easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves and mitigating volatility in the foreign exchange market, it said.


Published in The Express Tribune, March 26th, 2019.
 

Rajarawal111

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
ٹیکسٹ لال کرتے کرتے بندہ تھک جاتا ہے --- سٹیٹ بینک نے جو کہا ہے -- اس کا مختصر یہ ہے کہ سارے پھٹے چک دتے ہیں اس حکومت نے
 

OSP

MPA (400+ posts)
ٹیکسٹ لال کرتے کرتے بندہ تھک جاتا ہے --- سٹیٹ بینک نے جو کہا ہے -- اس کا مختصر یہ ہے کہ سارے پھٹے چک دتے ہیں اس حکومت نے
Issi laal ko black ker do n kuch black ko laal ker do to nazar aaye ga kay govt ki policy ki waja say bohot kuch stable bhi ho raha hay. Lol
So i guess its all about wat u want to see in red n wat u ignore in black. Right?
 

insouciant

Minister (2k+ posts)
So?? Is this growth rate a good thing or a bad thing? and Why? 🤔🤔🤔

Please educate me since I want to understand! 🤓🤓

ٹیکسٹ لال کرتے کرتے بندہ تھک جاتا ہے --- سٹیٹ بینک نے جو کہا ہے -- اس کا مختصر یہ ہے کہ سارے پھٹے چک دتے ہیں اس حکومت نے
 
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