Dear Bret Hawk,
Allow me not to comment on your first three points....
Regarding Pakistani establishment: Pakistan has learned lesson with the experience of 88-89 when America left us helplessly after soviet withdrawal.
Actually in 80's our ruler took the right decision of supporting afghan war but he played with wrong tactics. He allowed Afghans to enter into the society of Pakistan (reasons are debatable). That was his mistake. On the other hand Iran also supported Afghans but they kept them in camps. They didnt allow them to destroy their social fabric.
To save Pakistan, our ruler risked Pakistan itself at stake. Pakistan was looser both ways either USSR wins or Afghan warrior wins, Pakistan was destructed.
Now Gen Kiyani and previously Gen Musharraf both knew that America will again leave us after destroying Afghanistan. So I think that in 1st phase Gen Musharraf played double game and in 2nd phase Gen Kiyani is following Irani formula to keep Afghans in Afghanistan and fight there. In three months they cleared Swat. More work is on. Its tough but trying.
Regarding Afghan Warriors and Pakistan relations after (presumed) defeat of US and NATO, they will have to keep good relations with Pakistan, no other choice for them. And the double game will also pay at that time.
Finally Baloch, they are very nice people. Pyar say maango jaan day daingay, badmaashi say kuch nahi milay ga Balochistan will never go with Afghanistan. There might be 100 ills in Mr. Zardari but Balochistan is the point where he can and will play positive role.