Pakistan Elections 2018 Predictions; Nawaz Sharif's Future

[RiazHaq]

What will be the impact of tragic terror attacks with mass casualties on Pakistan's July 25, 2018 general elections? How does the current situation compare with the situation in 2013 elections? Will the elections proceed as scheduled?

Pakistan Elections 2018 Forecast by Intermarket and Exotix Investment Firms

Which party is likely to get the most votes and parliamentary seats in Pakistan's July 25, 2018 general elections? Will one party get a clear majority? Who will form the new government? Is PTI Chief Imran Khan likely to be the next prime minister of Pakistan? Will it be a coalition government? How can a weak coalition government implement a radical reform agenda proposed by Imran Khan?

Why did former prime minister of Pakistan Mr. Nawaz Sharif, convicted recently by a Pakistani court on charges of having assets beyond income, come back to Lahore to face certain arrest? What is his strategy? What is Nawaz Sharif's future in Pakistani politics after his conviction and arrest? How will PMLN fare in 2018 and future elections? Will the disgraced Sharif be able to rehabilitate himself and reclaim the mantle of national leadership? Will future judges of Pakistan Supreme Court set aide his conviction to clear the way for him to become Pakistan's prime minister for the fourth time?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with panelists Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

Here's Urdu version streamed live on Facebook:

http://www.riazhaq.com/2018/07/pakistan-elections-2018-predictions.html

 

[mohibbewatan]

Quite likely scenarios, Others in this chart could be GDA who will probably win 5-7 seats + PMLQ would win a few.

Imagine PMLN + PPP combination in government, this would be era of corruption & incompetence.

PTI forming alliances with all these groups won't be an easy ride either, most of these parties will blackmail PTI which will not allow Imran Khan to implement it's policies plus all these electables PTI have.

I think the elections will raise more questions than it will answer.

 

[PIND-WALA]

Only if PTI manages to get 130 seats alone then they are better position.

 

[Anonymous Paki]

Establishment and army will never allow pmln to come in power and wash out whatever they have done so far

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

Total Seats here are 282 which is wrong GEs will be held on 272 Seats a difference of 10 at first place how professional

 

[Politix]

Total Seats here are 282 which is wrong GEs will be held on 272 Seats a difference of 10 at first place how professional

Shaid aapko samjhne main ghalti lagi hai... They are showing Likely and Unlikely scenarios. They are not projecting exactly 272 seats. If you see carefully MQM-P is present in both sides. Which mean MQM-P can be the part of Govt in both scenarios.

 

[Realistic Change]

In simple terms - KPK + FATA will give PTI anywhere between 35-38 seats.

Sindh could be 4-7 depending on how DGA supports PTI on Tharparka. GDA itself should get 10-16 depending on how many candidates against them concede (I know of 3 PPP NA ticket holders will not contest the elections).

Balochistan could give PTI 2 at the max this makes PTI around 41-47 without ICT and Punjab.

Things are fluid and if all goes well and it’s anybody’s educated guesstimate like above but if all goes well - North of two southern most RYK (2 NA Sears) till Vehari out of 44 PTI should be able to get 25-28 at this point PTI should have between 66-75 and rest are 95 of Central & North Punjab + 2 ICT.

I honestly believe as per my group’s estimation Central Punjab is set to see many burj being dethroned - it’s just 10 days and you’ll see. In my office’s estimate (as of today) in 2 from ICT and between 31-38 from and this gives PTI a total between 99-115 and one thing which above calculation hasn’t shown is forward block of a party which is in works (not by army - but by two very important political persons) will also side with Govt. :)

I have summarized the numbers and not giving details of each NA seat due to obvious reasons as it won’t serve me and my party’s interest :)

It’s (the post) getting long - and we will revisit this number on July 26th.

The next Govt will be without crutches as this is the need for the country and not for few self cantered political leaders.

 

[Faheem Imtiaz]

Shaid aapko samjhne main ghalti lagi hai... They are showing Likely and Unlikely scenarios. They are not projecting exactly 272 seats. If you see carefully MQM-P is present in both sides. Which mean MQM-P can be the part of Govt in both scenarios.

Yes thanks alot for explanation! i mis-understood!