HAHAHAHAH!! This is amusing to say the least..... Especially when you say the middle class voter will go from MQ to PPP and PTI!! Excuse me but I stopped your post seriously when you said that. No offence though.
Bhutto never won 'hands down' in Karachi ever. It was JI that took most of the seats here
Zulfiqar Mirza is hated by all Urdu speaking and seeing him on TV is like uniting all Urdu speaking together
Even if MQM loses support, which I dont see happening now, MQM will take at least 13 seats out of 20 here. 2 others probably but it will be close. PPP will take just Lyari bus, I anticipate a close fight on 4
Lets look at it seat by seat...
NA-239-Kemari- Long a PPP stronghold but it has changed hands regularly, this seat has been won by MQM, PPP, PML-N, MMA amongst others. This time expect a tough contest. If the opposition doesnt unite i.e. PPP, ANP against MQ then MQM might just sneak through. If it does then it will be tough
NA- 240- Baldia- Expect a good fight here, it was won by MQM last time but only with a margin of 6,7000 votes. A close fight between MQM and PPP, with ANP as the spoiler's role. It will be hard to predict a winner here.
NA-241-Orangi/Metroville- Though ANP has a strong presence here it is not possible to see their candidate winning from here. MQM won this seat last time with close to 90,000 votes. ANP candidate supported by PPP, JI and ST got 35,000. MQM all the way
NA-242- Orangi- MQMs seat
NA-243- North Karachi- MQM has never lost this seat, Never won by less than 50,000.
NA- 244- Nazimabad/North Karachi/Buffer Zone- As MQM as they come
NA- 245- North Nazimabad- Though it contains areas with some JI support, it is never enough to win as MQM has never lost this seat
NA-246- Fedral B Area/ parts of Liaquatabad- Dr Imran Farooq won this seat by securing more than a lac of votes.May he rest in peace.
NA-246- Nazimabad- MQM
NA- 247- Liaquatabad- MQM
NA-248- Lyari- A PPP stronghold and will stay with them
NA-249- Old City/Saddar- Farooq Sattar has won this seat 4 times. It was close last time though with the PPP candidate challenging Dr. Sattar. This seat will be close but will probably go to MQM
NA-250-Defence/Clifton- This seat has drifted between JI, PML-N, PPP, MQM. However in the past 2,3 years MQM has established itself here strongly with opening of new offices and creating committees. If all other parties unite the they could give MQM a tough fight but I expect MQM to win here
NA- 251- PECHS- Though this seat has vote banks of nearly all parties, particularly PML-N, but its hard to see any of them beating MQM here.
NA-252- Garden/JAmshed Quarters- MQM
NA-253- Gulshan/Jauhar- I know this is your area and you would know better than me but the way I have seen MQM organised here it would be very hard for anyone to beat them
NA-254- Korangi- MQMs area
NA-255- Landhi- MQM.
NA-256- Shah Faisal- MQM
NA-257- Malir- MQM
NA-258- Bin Qasim/Gadap- Though PPP has won this seat most of the times, this time I believe it will be a closer contest
