Indian economy slows to 7% growth, recovery far off : Modi failed! : TOI (ache din KAHAN hain ??? :)
- Thread starter modern.fakir
- Start date
modern.fakir
Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
thats because china slowed down ...not because india did anything special.....:biggthumpup:
India is still the fastest growing economy
Growth has slowed QoQ but it has improved YoY from 6.7 percent registered in the first quarter of the last fiscal.
>> Healthier government finances - Improved tax collections, led by indirect tax growth of 37.6% during April-July; lower subsidy bill due to falling oil prices; expected savings may be around Rs 1 lakh crore.
>> Improving industrial output - Up 3.8% in June compared to 2.5% in May.
>> Inflation - both retail and wholesale - under control - Retail inflation estimated at 3.8% in July; wholesale inflation at -4.1%, the ninth straight month of contraction.
>> Lower trade deficit - Due to a fall in import bill for crude petroleum, gold.
>> Current account deficit - Appears more manageable at 1.3% GDP in 2014-15 compared to 1.7% in 2013-14.
>> Forex reserves - At a record all time high of $355 billion.
>> Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) & Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) - FII inflows surged a record 717 per cent to $40.92 billion in 2014-15 and FDI inflows jumped 48 per cent since Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the Make In India initiative in September 2014. In fact India for the first time in the last 10 years entered the Top 10 FDI destinations in the World at #9 (From #13 last Year) and ranked #1 Baseline Profitability Index at the same time.
>> Healthier government finances - Improved tax collections, led by indirect tax growth of 37.6% during April-July; lower subsidy bill due to falling oil prices; expected savings may be around Rs 1 lakh crore.
>> Improving industrial output - Up 3.8% in June compared to 2.5% in May.
>> Inflation - both retail and wholesale - under control - Retail inflation estimated at 3.8% in July; wholesale inflation at -4.1%, the ninth straight month of contraction.
>> Lower trade deficit - Due to a fall in import bill for crude petroleum, gold.
>> Current account deficit - Appears more manageable at 1.3% GDP in 2014-15 compared to 1.7% in 2013-14.
>> Forex reserves - At a record all time high of $355 billion.
>> Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) & Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) - FII inflows surged a record 717 per cent to $40.92 billion in 2014-15 and FDI inflows jumped 48 per cent since Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the Make In India initiative in September 2014. In fact India for the first time in the last 10 years entered the Top 10 FDI destinations in the World at #9 (From #13 last Year) and ranked #1 Baseline Profitability Index at the same time.
modern.fakir
Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Start a thread on it and maybe i will :biggthumpup:..on this thread we are discussing India's recession and drop in GDP rate ..so please respect the topic and dont deviate when you have to face facts.
IMF probing govts numbers on last years fiscal deficit
By Shahbaz Rana
Published: August 28, 2015
Investigation comes after independent experts challenged govts claims. PHOTO: FILE
In a move carrying far-reaching implications for a $6.2 billion bailout package, the International Monetary Fund is investigating Pakistans claim of restricting the federal budget deficit to 5.3% of the total size of the national economy or Rs1.45 trillion in fiscal year 2015.
The IMFs resident mission decided to reopen the books after several independent experts publicly questioned the authenticity of the figure, claiming the deficit was Rs1.8 trillion when including the circular debt.
The resident mission has gone back to the drawing board and re-calculating the budget deficit figure for the last fiscal year 2014-15 that ended on June 30, said sources.
The Express Tribune sent a question to the IMFs resident mission on Monday, asking whether it was true it was recalculating the 2015 budget deficit figure. After three days, the office of resident representative Tokhir Mirzoev gave a brief statement saying that they would not comment at this point.
Speculation about the accuracy of the governments figures grew after the IMF published a glowing report, praising the Nawaz Administrations reform efforts. In an op-ed piece appearing in a local daily, former State Bank governor Shahid Kardar stated that despite Pakistans failure to meet two key performance benchmarks of the programme, the IMF took a lenient view and granted waivers. He said that in less than two years, the IMF gave 12 waivers to Islamabad, the largest number of waivers under any IMF programme.
He argued that the government was practicing an unashamed manipulation of data to show a lower budget deficit, an act in which the IMF was complicit. This decision of the Fund staff has, for the first time in recent memory, reinforced the widening perception that the IMF, World Bank and Asian Development Bank are abettors of the governments window-dressing scheme, he wrote.
Kardar was not alone in his scathing criticism. In an article published in the London-based Financial Times on Sunday, economist and former finance minister Hafiz Pasha expressed similar views, saying, In our close to 70 years history, weve never had a government that fudged statistics to the extent of this one. He said the actual 2015 budget deficit including circular debt was closer to 8.5% of GDP, not the 5.3% the government claimed.
According to sources, during the IMFs earlier analysis, it had treated the $1 billion raised through the secondary market offering of the governments shares in Habib Bank as revenue, even though the 2000 Privatisation Ordinance requires such proceeds to be treated as financing, not revenue. In addition, the IMF excluded the $1 billion Islamic Eurobond issued by the government from its external financing.
A meeting of the Executive Board of the IMF is tentatively scheduled for early next month to allow the disbursement of next loan tranche of $500 million. If 5.3% figure turns out to be incorrect, the country may face problems in getting further loans from the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 28th, 2015.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/946260/...g-govts-numbers-on-last-years-fiscal-deficit/
By Shahbaz Rana
Published: August 28, 2015
Investigation comes after independent experts challenged govts claims. PHOTO: FILE
In a move carrying far-reaching implications for a $6.2 billion bailout package, the International Monetary Fund is investigating Pakistans claim of restricting the federal budget deficit to 5.3% of the total size of the national economy or Rs1.45 trillion in fiscal year 2015.
The IMFs resident mission decided to reopen the books after several independent experts publicly questioned the authenticity of the figure, claiming the deficit was Rs1.8 trillion when including the circular debt.
The resident mission has gone back to the drawing board and re-calculating the budget deficit figure for the last fiscal year 2014-15 that ended on June 30, said sources.
The Express Tribune sent a question to the IMFs resident mission on Monday, asking whether it was true it was recalculating the 2015 budget deficit figure. After three days, the office of resident representative Tokhir Mirzoev gave a brief statement saying that they would not comment at this point.
Speculation about the accuracy of the governments figures grew after the IMF published a glowing report, praising the Nawaz Administrations reform efforts. In an op-ed piece appearing in a local daily, former State Bank governor Shahid Kardar stated that despite Pakistans failure to meet two key performance benchmarks of the programme, the IMF took a lenient view and granted waivers. He said that in less than two years, the IMF gave 12 waivers to Islamabad, the largest number of waivers under any IMF programme.
He argued that the government was practicing an unashamed manipulation of data to show a lower budget deficit, an act in which the IMF was complicit. This decision of the Fund staff has, for the first time in recent memory, reinforced the widening perception that the IMF, World Bank and Asian Development Bank are abettors of the governments window-dressing scheme, he wrote.
Kardar was not alone in his scathing criticism. In an article published in the London-based Financial Times on Sunday, economist and former finance minister Hafiz Pasha expressed similar views, saying, In our close to 70 years history, weve never had a government that fudged statistics to the extent of this one. He said the actual 2015 budget deficit including circular debt was closer to 8.5% of GDP, not the 5.3% the government claimed.
According to sources, during the IMFs earlier analysis, it had treated the $1 billion raised through the secondary market offering of the governments shares in Habib Bank as revenue, even though the 2000 Privatisation Ordinance requires such proceeds to be treated as financing, not revenue. In addition, the IMF excluded the $1 billion Islamic Eurobond issued by the government from its external financing.
A meeting of the Executive Board of the IMF is tentatively scheduled for early next month to allow the disbursement of next loan tranche of $500 million. If 5.3% figure turns out to be incorrect, the country may face problems in getting further loans from the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 28th, 2015.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/946260/...g-govts-numbers-on-last-years-fiscal-deficit/
modern.fakir
Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
This is ONLY dramatizing one simple fact which is drop in OIL prices that has had a positive impact on many economies ..
healthier government finances, low inflation due to oil, lower trade deficit again due to lower oil prices and large foreign exchange reserves again due to lesser spending on importing oil are basically REITERATIONS Of the same POint over and over again.
How has INdia's unemployment picture increased ??...how many manufacturing units have you set up ?? why has poverty rates increased over the last 10 years ?? why are farmers committing suicides ?? why are Patels up in arms ??
These are the real reasons you need to discuss :biggthumpup:
healthier government finances, low inflation due to oil, lower trade deficit again due to lower oil prices and large foreign exchange reserves again due to lesser spending on importing oil are basically REITERATIONS Of the same POint over and over again.
How has INdia's unemployment picture increased ??...how many manufacturing units have you set up ?? why has poverty rates increased over the last 10 years ?? why are farmers committing suicides ?? why are Patels up in arms ??
These are the real reasons you need to discuss :biggthumpup:
In our close to 70 years history, weve never had a government that fudged statistics to the extent of this one, says Hafeez Pasha, an economist and former finance minister. Actual growth, he says, is more like 3.5 per cent than the official 4.2 per cent, while the budget deficit is closer to 8.5 per cent than 5 per cent.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/946260/...g-govts-numbers-on-last-years-fiscal-deficit/
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67422228-4594-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda22.html#axzz3kSX9Otpz
http://tribune.com.pk/story/946260/...g-govts-numbers-on-last-years-fiscal-deficit/
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67422228-4594-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda22.html#axzz3kSX9Otpz
modern.fakir
Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
India Economists’ Embarrassing Confession: They Don’t Know What GDP Is
India’s radically revised gross domestic product data have apparently left economists dazed and confused because they are uncharacteristically silent about what growth was last quarter.
India is scheduled to announce GDP figures for the quarter ended Dec. 31 on Monday but instead of the regular rush of forecasts, economists seem to have created a cartel of silence, choosing not to make predictions using India’s new methodology.
Last week India surprised all the experts by recalculating GDP growth for the fiscal year ended March. Using a new calculation method, India’s economy expanded 6.9% that year, well above the 4.7% growth the country had announced earlier.
“The revision was massive,” said Siddhartha Sanyal, India economist at Barclays. “We don’t know what the GDP was in the previous quarter, so how do we estimate what is going to happen?”
The change happened because the government brought forward the base year used in GDP calculations by seven years to fiscal 2012. It also switched from using production costs to market prices.
While the headline growth figure shot up with the new calculations, the absolute GDP figure was basically the same as it was before, making it hard for economists to figure out exactly where the new-found growth came from. Meanwhile, the government didn’t give the revised quarterly data or new calculations for this year.
“We are completely blind at the moment,” said Saugata Bhattacharya, chief economist at Axis Bank.
While the new numbers suggest that last year the economy was rebounding strongly, some economists are still skeptical. Most other indicators that year suggested growth was sputtering, they said.
“I am not convinced that there is (such) good news,” said Glenn Levine, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. “If it’s true that the economy is growing close to 7%, then that suggests there isn’t much slack in the economy.”
That’s something economists are finding hard to digest given other indicators such as industrial production have pointed to weakness.
With a lot of questions about the new data still remaining unanswered, economists are only estimating growth for last quarter based on the old method even though the government won’t be announcing those numbers anymore.
Forecasts of eight economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal using the now-outdated method range between 5.0% and 5.5%, compared with the 5.3% expansion in the September quarter.
While few will venture a guess on what numbers will be announced Monday, “the broader picture is that the economy is improving,” said Axis Bank’s Mr. Bhattacharya.
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/...assing-confession-they-dont-know-what-gdp-is/
- By
- ANANT VIJAY KALA
- CONNECT
India’s radically revised gross domestic product data have apparently left economists dazed and confused because they are uncharacteristically silent about what growth was last quarter.
India is scheduled to announce GDP figures for the quarter ended Dec. 31 on Monday but instead of the regular rush of forecasts, economists seem to have created a cartel of silence, choosing not to make predictions using India’s new methodology.
Last week India surprised all the experts by recalculating GDP growth for the fiscal year ended March. Using a new calculation method, India’s economy expanded 6.9% that year, well above the 4.7% growth the country had announced earlier.
The change happened because the government brought forward the base year used in GDP calculations by seven years to fiscal 2012. It also switched from using production costs to market prices.
While the headline growth figure shot up with the new calculations, the absolute GDP figure was basically the same as it was before, making it hard for economists to figure out exactly where the new-found growth came from. Meanwhile, the government didn’t give the revised quarterly data or new calculations for this year.
“We are completely blind at the moment,” said Saugata Bhattacharya, chief economist at Axis Bank.
While the new numbers suggest that last year the economy was rebounding strongly, some economists are still skeptical. Most other indicators that year suggested growth was sputtering, they said.
“I am not convinced that there is (such) good news,” said Glenn Levine, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. “If it’s true that the economy is growing close to 7%, then that suggests there isn’t much slack in the economy.”
That’s something economists are finding hard to digest given other indicators such as industrial production have pointed to weakness.
With a lot of questions about the new data still remaining unanswered, economists are only estimating growth for last quarter based on the old method even though the government won’t be announcing those numbers anymore.
Forecasts of eight economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal using the now-outdated method range between 5.0% and 5.5%, compared with the 5.3% expansion in the September quarter.
While few will venture a guess on what numbers will be announced Monday, “the broader picture is that the economy is improving,” said Axis Bank’s Mr. Bhattacharya.
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/...assing-confession-they-dont-know-what-gdp-is/
Last edited:
modern.fakir
Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
[hilar][hilar][hilar]
India Economists’ Embarrassing Confession: They Don’t Know What GDP Is
- By
- ANANT VIJAY KALA
- CONNECT
India’s radically revised gross domestic product data have apparently left economists dazed and confused because they are uncharacteristically silent about what growth was last quarter.
India is scheduled to announce GDP figures for the quarter ended Dec. 31 on Monday but instead of the regular rush of forecasts, economists seem to have created a cartel of silence, choosing not to make predictions using India’s new methodology.
Last week India surprised all the experts by recalculating GDP growth for the fiscal year ended March. Using a new calculation method, India’s economy expanded 6.9% that year, well above the 4.7% growth the country had announced earlier.
“The revision was massive,” said Siddhartha Sanyal, India economist at Barclays. “We don’t know what the GDP was in the previous quarter, so how do we estimate what is going to happen?”
The change happened because the government brought forward the base year used in GDP calculations by seven years to fiscal 2012. It also switched from using production costs to market prices.
While the headline growth figure shot up with the new calculations, the absolute GDP figure was basically the same as it was before, making it hard for economists to figure out exactly where the new-found growth came from. Meanwhile, the government didn’t give the revised quarterly data or new calculations for this year.
“We are completely blind at the moment,” said Saugata Bhattacharya, chief economist at Axis Bank.
While the new numbers suggest that last year the economy was rebounding strongly, some economists are still skeptical. Most other indicators that year suggested growth was sputtering, they said.
“I am not convinced that there is (such) good news,” said Glenn Levine, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. “If it’s true that the economy is growing close to 7%, then that suggests there isn’t much slack in the economy.”
That’s something economists are finding hard to digest given other indicators such as industrial production have pointed to weakness.
With a lot of questions about the new data still remaining unanswered, economists are only estimating growth for last quarter based on the old method even though the government won’t be announcing those numbers anymore.
Forecasts of eight economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal using the now-outdated method range between 5.0% and 5.5%, compared with the 5.3% expansion in the September quarter.
While few will venture a guess on what numbers will be announced Monday, “the broader picture is that the economy is improving,” said Axis Bank’s Mr. Bhattacharya.
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/...assing-confession-they-dont-know-what-gdp-is/
modern.fakir
Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
even your own countrymen are not buying your data
dil ko behlane ko ghalib ye khayal acha hai
modern.fakir
Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
