Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says

[Sirphira]

Facebooks growth will eventually come to a quick end, much like an infectious disease that spreads rapidly and suddenly dies, say Princeton researchers who are using diseases to model the life cycles of social media.


Disease models can be used to understand the mass adoption and subsequent flight from online social networks, researchers at Princetons Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering say in a study released Jan. 17. The study has not been peer-reviewed. Updating traditional models on disease spread to assume that recovery requires contact with a nondiseased member i.e., a nonuser of Facebook (recovered member of the population) researchers predicted that Facebook would see a rapid decline, causing the site to lose 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017.


Basically, Facebook users will lose interest in Facebook over time as their peers lose interest if the model is correct. Ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out, and have been successfully described with epidemiological models, write the researchers.


You can check out the full study here.

Read more: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2014/01/21...ose-80-of-its-users-study-says/#ixzz2rAaRmUGw

 

[sherkhan314]

Re: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says Read more: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says

Yes but unless theres a useful alternative, what will the users switch to?

 

[Sayed Afzal Shah]

Pakistan is excluded from this analysis (presently having 0.9 million FB users) [hilar][hilar][hilar]

 

[Rafay470]

Re: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says Read more: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says

Yes but unless theres a useful alternative, what will the users switch to?

I think apps like twitter n Instagram r gaining popularity quite rapidly!!!

 

[Chaudhry_1960]

Re: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says Read more: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users, Study Says

I think apps like twitter n Instagram r gaining popularity quite rapidly!!!

The use and user crowd is totally different for facebook than the twitter, instagram etc

 

[ImranG]

There is a basic flaw in this model. Facebook can be continuously innovative to keep the user's interest while diseases can't innovate. People lose interest when development is stopped and thing becomes boring but facebook owners will keep recharging the interest levels.

 

[Mehrushka]

Ontopic pic :biggthumpup:

 

[asifA1]

Its true I never even log into such of remarks better come to siasat! At least there are incremental arguments for intelligence personalities.

 

[Muhammad Ikhlaq Siddiqui]

Ontopic pic :biggthumpup:

ay..ykkkkkk...

Addiction jo b ho.. Charsi Charsi hi hota hai...and u may have heard the famous quote.. Charsi Kaddi na Marsi.. :P

 

[uetian]

The study was done by Princeton University,
and here is the response of Facebook to Princeton : you will have no students anymore after 7 years [hilar]
http://live.wsj.com/video/facebook-...eft/63C72EA8-2C31-4578-B65A-85797BBD7E17.html

 

[Bushra]

Facebook will lose 80% of users by 2017

​

The social networking website will celebrate its 10th birthday on 4 February. PHOTO: FILE



Facebook has spread like an infectious disease but we are slowly becoming immune to its attractions, and the platform will be largely abandoned by 2017, say researchers at Princeton University.

The forecast of Facebooks impending doom was made by comparing the growth curve of epidemics to those of online social networks. Scientists argue that, like the bubonic plague, Facebook will eventually die out. The social network, which celebrates its 10th birthday on 4 February, has survived longer than rivals such as Myspace and Bebo, but the Princeton forecast says it will lose 80% of its peak user base within the next three years.

Facebook reported nearly 1.2 billion monthly active users in October, and is due to update investors on its traffic numbers at the end of the month. While desktop traffic to its websites has indeed been falling, this is at least in part due to the fact that many people now only access the network via their mobile phones.

For their study, Cannarella and Spechler used what is known as the SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) model of disease, which creates equations to map the spread and recovery of epidemics.

They tested various equations against the lifespan of Myspace, before applying them to Facebook. Myspace was founded in 2003 and reached its peak in 2007 with 300 million registered users, before falling out of use by 2011. Purchased by Rupert Murdochs News Corp for $580m, Myspace signed a $900m deal with Google in 2006 to sell its advertising space and was at one point valued at $12bn. It was eventually sold by News Corp for just $35m.

The 870 million people using Facebook via their smartphones each month could explain the drop in Google searches those looking to log on are no longer doing so by typing the word Facebook into Google.But Facebooks chief financial officer David Ebersman admitted on an earnings call with analysts that during the previous three months they did see a decrease in daily users, specifically among younger teens, reported The Guardian.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 25[SUP]th[/SUP], 2014.

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[m.saari]

Facebook is ti be vanished with in a few years

 

[Labaas1]

Never liked it 100% only to link up with old buddies!