Aaj key KAALAM 13 June, 2009

[arshad_lahore]

Back to the peace process
By Shamshad Ahmad | Published: June 13, 2009
The US seems to be successfully prodding India and Pakistan back to their peace process. Under Secretary of State William Burns was in New Delhi this week with a strong message for resumption of the stalled composite dialogue. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is also expected to visit the two countries next month to reinforce Washington's demarche. Meanwhile, positive vibes are emanating from New Delhi. Pakistan Foreign Office was quick enough to welcome the prospect of early resumption of India-Pakistan talks which India had suspended after the Mumbai terrorist attacks in November last year.
US pressure has already begun paying dividends and a significant change in the Indian mood vis--vis Pakistan is noticeable. Recent statements by Indian leadership including those by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, President Pratibha Patil and Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna are indicative of a clear shift in the Indian position. There has been a growing realization in Delhi that its post-Mumbai intransigence was counterproductive and might only strengthen the very forces that were seeking to undermine the India-Pakistan peace process. Washington was particularly worried of the serious fall-out of this situation.
It is encouraging that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is now asserting the importance of talks "for resolving the issues confronting the two countries" bilaterally and by the region as a whole. In his formal "vote of thanks" statement in response to the address by Indian President Pratibha Patil to the parliament's joint session last week, the Indian Prime Minister acknowledged that it was in his country's vital interest to retry to build peace with Pakistan and said "New Delhi was prepared to walk more than half way if Islamabad would accept its share of the responsibility in the partnership."
Manmohan Singh spoke his mind best when he admitted that "India cannot realise its ambitions unless there is peace and prosperity in South Asia as a whole." He recognised that it always takes two hands to clap." So finally, he seems to be convinced that instead of prolonging the mutual acrimony, it was time to grab Pakistan's hand already extended full length to jointly move ahead in pursuit of peace between the two countries which he now believes would help transform South Asia as a factor of regional and global stability.
"What is at stake is the future of one-and-a-half billion people living in South Asia," Manmohan Singh said.
Indeed, today's world is in turmoil, and South Asia, which is home to one-fifth of humanity is at the root of most of its problems ranging from unresolved disputes to violence, extremism and terrorism. But the world has not paid enough attention to these problems which in essence emanate from the unbroken legacy of India-Pakistan hostility and conflict. It is this gridlock that needs to be opened sooner rather than later. What the world now needs to understand is that global peace will remain elusive as long as the issues of peace and security in this region are not resolved.It is time a serious appraisal was made of the policy options available to the regional as well as global stakeholders in making South Asia a factor of stability for global peace and security. This no doubt presents a challenge to the world community, especially the powers that matter face, not only to manage the magnitude of the region's political, economic and social problems but also explore the pathways to bringing the prevailing India-Pakistan logjam through conflict prevention and peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with the modalities prescribed in the Charter of the United Nations.
With overt nuclearization of the sub-continent, South Asia's problems are no longer an exclusive concern of the region itself. They now have a worrisome global dimension which raises major powers' stakes in the issues of peace and security in this region. Afghanistan and Pakistan, as pivotal partners of the West in its containment policy of the Cold War, played a decisive role in dismantling the "evil empire" of the former Soviet Union. The same two countries now constitute the pivotal frontline and battlefield of the global war on terror.
The role that Pakistan and Afghanistan are now playing to make the world safer and more peaceful is inevitably predicated on the overall political, socio-economic and security environment of South Asia and the new approaches that are made to bringing peace and stability to this region. The effectiveness of their role and capability in this process will suffer if other conflicts and disputes continue to engage and divert their attention and resources. This brings in the crucial factor of US "engagement" or "re-engagement" in South Asia's future.
Unfortunately, after the Mumbai terrorist attacks, South Asia is suffering one of the most serous crises of its history. The implications are not confined to the region itself. They threaten the global security. What the US needs to understand is that the situation in this region will not be normalised by papering the cracks. The issues underneath will have to be addressed and resolved in an equitable manner. It must address Pakistan's legitimate concerns and sensitivities over its own discriminatory policies in the region.
The US-India defence pact and the nuclear deal both have had a dreadful impact on the strategic balance in the region. Washington's discriminatory, country-specific favoritism shown to India is a negation of the criteria-based approach normally applicable to global non-proliferation regimes. Against this backdrop, no regional approach can be effective in the war on terror without addressing the India-Pakistan issues which regretfully are now finding a manifestation in the Afghan theater and worsening situation in Pakistan.
India is suspected of using its new influence in Afghanistan to interfere in Pakistan's northern and western areas. This is a matter for deep concern in Pakistan. Washington must not ignore the grim realities of this region. Pakistan cannot be an effective partner in any campaign unless its legitimate concerns are alleviated. President Obama understands this linkage. He knew that no strategy or roadmap for durable peace in the region including in Afghanistan would be comprehensive without focusing on the underlying causes of conflict and instability.
In a pre-election television interview, President Obama had pledged to encourage India to solve the Kashmir dispute with Pakistan so that Islamabad can better cooperate with the United States on Afghanistan. He was right. To keep Pakistan focused on the larger challenges in our region, the Kashmir issue has to be resolved. But a solution of this dispute must be pursued in a manner that is acceptable to the people of Kashmir. No peace will be durable if it is negotiated on unequal terms.
General Musharraf made hasty and unreciprocated gestures to keep Washington's goodwill. In the process, he eroded Pakistan's principled position and offered a "non-territorial" settlement that only legitimized the status quo with some drastic confidence building measures. Kashmir issue is not all about CBMs. It is about the future of the people of Kashmir who alone are the arbiters of their destiny. The people in both countries would welcome any innovative approach that facilitates "practical and achievable" solution of the Kashmir issue in keeping with the legitimate interests of Pakistan and the wishes of the Kashmiri people.
This process would inevitably require perseverance. The only silver lining now on the horizon is that General Musharraf is gone. We have an elected civilian government in Pakistan, and the two major political parties are publicly known to be committed to a just and honourable peace with India on the basis of negotiated settlement of the outstanding disputes. Their negotiating template is further reinforced by a political consensus reflected in their electoral manifestos. The task ahead is not going to be easy given the complexity of the issues involved. There will be no quick fixes.
The two countries must however give peace a real chance. They need to develop a clearer framework of principles on the basis of which to address their outstanding issues and organize their future relations. For this purpose, regular contact between the political leadership of the two countries would be needed. Steady improvement of relations between Pakistan and India requires further changes in the way they deal with each other. India, being the biggest country in South Asia, must lead the way by removing fears and apprehensions among its neighbours.
The "composite dialogue" must be continued to build up trust and confidence, and develop mutually beneficial cooperation. Tangible progress in conflict resolution should be visible to the people on both sides, particularly on the doables: Sir Creek; Siachen; Wullar Barrage; Trade expansion; and Visa liberalization. Mutual cooperation in counter-terrorism should be reinforced and the Joint Anti Terrorism Mechanisms be made more effective. Blame game in public must be avoided.
The writer is a former foreign secretary

 

[arshad_lahore]

The pendulum swings
By Fakir S. Ayazuddin | Published: June 13, 2009
The Russian occupation of Afghanistan in 79, and the brutal repression of the Afghan ruling family using the Communist credo of elimination of the ruling class, gave the US the opportunity to launch their attack on the 'evil' regime as the communists were known to the rest of the world.
Since the Bolshevik revolution, the West maintained and nurtured this spread of hatred against the Communists both Russian and Chinese. With the Russian move into Afghanistan the plan to suck them in deeper came about. The Russians brought in their heavy guns, tanks, artillery, mortars and gunships. While the poor Afghans were on foot or horseback. With their equipment carried across the mountains on mules and by men.
The American CIA along with the Saudis prepared a comprehensive plan based on casting the Russians as the hated infidels, and the Islamic forces as the Mujahideen - or holy warriors. The Script was tailor-made for a bitter fight casting the high tech versus the low tech, man versus machine. The Afghans, Tajiks, Pashtuns, Pakistanis were the bulk of the footsoldiers, taking horrific losses in men. In fact in the Northern areas, and in Afghanistan, there are very few families that have not suffered a casualty or a horrible mutilation.
In 1988 when the Geneva Accord was signed - much against Gen Zia's wishes, the Gen's opposition marked his removal from the stage, and he along with the US Ambassador went down in flames in a C 130, leaving no survivors nor any clues as to the cause of the crash.
The Russian Empire having been successfully dismantled, the world became unipolar with the US going on to dominate the rest of the world. However, the US in their haste to leave, unleashed a huge heavily armed trained force, unemployed, and worse no enemy to face.
So the Mujahideen feeling discarded, decided that the US was the new infidel. With the fury over 9/11 and the American bombing of Afghanistan into the stone age, and the Americans with their media going into hyper-drive over the now wicked Mujahideen. The US did not realize that in their discarding an uncompensated ally, theirs was an outstanding debt of honour. Leaving the Afghans distraught and destitute and heavily armed, alongside a similarly angry, long suffering Pathan area, it gave the Mullahs an opportunity to roil against the US, and to target the West as the new infidelAnd so the matters progressed, with the Pakistani army being dragged into the war, Pakistan became the recipient of the fury of the Mujahideen.
Luckily for Pakistan the savagery displayed by the militants against the Pathan civilians spread disgust amongst the locals, and even the Mullahs eventually had to bow to the people's anger at the depravity shown by the militants.
The Pathan and the Mullah have finally realized that this bestiality is not the stuff of the Koran. Daily in the Northern areas the public is banding together, to hunt down the militants. For once the Pathan realizes he has been had, he can be as savage as anyone else. Especially when he has been on the receiving end. Revenge is something the Pathan is very good at exacting, and the militants are already getting rid of their beards, and their weapons. The soil had turned against the invader, and the local was now fighting for his motherland - the best of all motives.
The Pathans having decided on their course of action and will clear the militants out their areas - with a vengeance, for they now know that the whole militant movement was a charade, and had nothing to do with Islam. If at all, they are Kafirs, for having sinfully invoked the name of God to commit the most heinous of crimes. We, in Pakistan are lucky because our silent majority has been proved to be right, and they are throwing their weight against the militants, becoming more vocal in the process. The JI finds itself on the wrong side. Imran Khan's PTI is also distancing itself from the excesses of the militants.
This swing of the pendulum has finally brought Pakistan and the US together on the same side with the militants isolated by their own actions. Now it is the foreign funding for the militants that must be cut off, and the US has the technology to track these funds. Similarly the Governments involved in supplying weapons to the militants if only to embarrass us further, should be stopped from doing so. As President Zardari has said, Pakistan losing to the militants is not an option. The stakes are too high for everyone.

 

[arshad_lahore]

Where we are heading?
By Inayatullah | Published: June 13, 2009
Obama made a great speech. He spoke well. He did succeed in touching Muslims' minds and hearts. He acknowledged the seminal contributions made by Muslim scholars and scientists towards the making of the processes of Renaissance and Reformation. The taste of the pudding, however as they say, is in the eating of it.
Is OIC still alive? It claims to represent the Muslims of the world. All the Muslim countries. Will it wake up to do its duty? Brings together Muslim leaders to prepare a response to the ideas and ideals dished out from Cairo. Fat chance it will do any thing worthwhile, on its own. Pakistan is a leading Muslim country. If Bhutto could hold a summit of the Muslim leaders at short notice, so very successfully, why not take the initiative to hold one to examine the points made by Obama and seek to put forward the considered points of view of the Muslim world with particular reference to Palestine, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Kashmir? The opportunity to engage USA on vital interests of the Muslim community should not be missed and wasted.
What was there in the speech for Pakistan? Very little. There was a general reference about force alone not being the answer to fight extremism and violence. The coming "surge" in Afghanistan points to a different direction. What message are we getting with the appointment of General Stanley McCrystal, an officer known for abuse of prisoners and secret assassinations. The speech did not mention the K word. The omission was deliberate. Obama knows well that without the resolution of the Kashmir dispute, there can be no real peace between the two major nations of the subcontinent. On the eve of his election he had made a pointed reference to this dispute and expressed his resolve to address it. He even announced his wish to appoint a special envoy to resolve the issue. There was talk of Bill Clinton filling the bill. New Delhi moved fast. Shiv Shankar Menon rushed to Washington. Lo and behold, Kashmir was off the American diplomatic radar. Indians pursued the matter to the hilt. They further, succeeded in de-hyphenating Pakistan from India and downgrading it by linking it to Afghanistan. The world was blessed with a new acronym "AfPak". Islamabad took this humiliating turn of the table, lying down. No protests. No attempt to drive home to the Americans that such embarrassing unilateral moves would not be acceptable. What a spectacle it was to witness recently in Washington the US "foreign minister" presiding over a meeting of the heads of states of Pakistan and Afghanistan and administrating directives to them. And how the two honourable presidents were seen vying with each other to please the American official"Viceroy" Holbrooke, back in Washington, has been speaking of his achievements in Pakistan. Mark his words: "I spent time with Nawaz Sharif, a good deal of time, the leader of the opposition, just after he had his political rights restored. I also spent a lot of time with President Zardari, time with General Kayani and his top team, including General Pasha head of ISI, with members of the civil society.....I found a new determination in Islamabad. And I carried the support of President Obama, Secretary Clinton and the US government with me". Interesting to note that he did not mention his meeting with the Chief Justice of Pakistan which was arranged by our Foreign Office at his bidding. Why was he allowed to meet the CJP. What business had he to talk to the Chief Justice?
There is little doubt that Pakistan has become a client state. Musharraf set the ball rolling. Zaradri in this respect has outmanoeuvred his predecessor. With NRO thrown into the bargain, Americans now find themselves sailing smoothly to micro-manage our affairs. They are eyeing our nuclear assets. All that we do is beg, beg, beg. The latest prayer is for writing off the loans. The loans Pakistan has to pay back have risen to more than 50 billion dollars. The money being given, one must note is tied to degrading and disgracing strings.
There is another kind of begging we persistently keep indulging in: imploring India to agree to talk. Please, please speak to us. Here is the olive branch, says our prime minister. India has never been our enemy, declared Mr. Zardari sometime back. Musharraf had bent over backward to please and appease the Indians even offering the prospect of ditching the UN resolutions on Kashmir. Manmohan Singh however would not respond. Nor would he relent to agree to visit Pakistan. Improve your behaviour first is the message from New Delhi. Satisfy us about the action taken against the terrorists. We do not accept the judgment of your High Court about Hafiz Saeed. Get hold of him and put him away. Rehman Malik's open accusation in the Senate against India's role in the trouble in Balochistan has been pushed under the carpet. India's blatant state terrorism against the peaceful Kashmiris goes on. Pakistan which claims to continue supporting the cause of the Kashmiris politically and diplomatically does not lodge even a mild protest on the raping and killing of Kashmiri women.
The fact of the matter is that we have a weak and vulnerable central government which is willing to concede all sorts of demands emanating from Washington and New Delhi. To safeguard Pakistan's integrity and vital interests it is the opposition which has to take a stand. PML (N) has a historic role to play to ensure that government does not compromise, any more, with the country's sovereignty and self-respect. What after all is the opposition for? What good is Nawaz Sharif's popularity and standing if faulty policies and harmful moves of the weak- kneed rulers of the day keep adding to the mess the country has become and to the misery of the people of Pakistan.
Economically, culturally and socially the country is going down the drain. Three of the four provinces stand destabilized. Tinkering with Balochistan crisis goes on. There is no seriousness of purpose. Karachi is on fire despite the fact that the senior partner in the government of Sindh is PPP itself. No exaggeration to say that its strength has been sapped by its overbearing political partner.
The parliamentary committee headed by Raza Rabbani must meet twice a week to review the situation in Swat and the adjoining areas and advise the government on how to proceed further to determine the course of action. It was quite a shock to listen to an ex-ISPR Director-General speaking at a TV channel wondering and worrying aloud about the way the battle against the "Taliban" was being fought sans vision, sans a clear understanding and not knowing where we are heading. No body knows how long the operation will go on, he said. His words need to be taken seriously. A former army officer commissioned to train the Mujahideen fighters in the 80s has made the startling statement that the Taliban can never be defeated and that each killing will result in more supporters as replacements. Can we afford the destruction of our major hotels and security vital points and the unending horrendous suicide attacks, coming one after the other in Peshawar, Islamabad, Lahore, Karachi, Quetta and other places? Certainly there is need for an on-going review to reconstruct our strategies with a view to safeguarding our interests and not to go on carrying out the design of foreign powers.
The opposition must rise to the occasion and do its job. The present rulers in Islamabad cannot be allowed to continue to play with the future of Pakistan, unchecked.
The writer is a political and international relations analyst.

 

[arshad_lahore]

The elusive alternate strategy!
By Raoof Hasan | Published: June 13, 2009
I was at the Seminar organised by Imran Khan in Islamabad to discuss the prospect "Beyond the Military Operation". While there was widespread scathing comment on the dynamics of the operation and the way things were being handled by the incumbent dispensation, practically no one had any credible alternate strategy to offer to handle the deteriorating situation and the mammoth humanitarian tragedy that is occurring right in our midst. What we are witnessing is the largest single human migration since the partition of the sub-continent back in 1947. What is even more depressing is a total lack, even absence of any viable plan for handling the evolving catastrophe.
There was general sarcasm regarding the panel of speakers that had been invited for the occasion. All of them, at one time or the other in their careers as diplomats, bureaucrats or politicians, had served and perpetuated the interests of one or more dictators. While one may understand their obvious concern at the horrendous spectacle that is being enacted as a consequence of sheer servility, apathy and incompetence of the political leadership that controls the reins of power, one cannot overlook the reality that a majority of the speakers should share bulk of the blame for bringing the country to the brink of disaster. It was patent hypocrisy to hear Qazi Hussain Ahmad saying that he did not carry a brief for the Taliban and then launch a vituperative attack on the liberal values that were envisioned for Pakistan at the time of its creation. Jamaat-e-Islami's role of working in cahoots with a sequence of despots is not hidden from any one. Let no one forget that JI is the party that, in addition to supporting the military action in the former East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, also facilitated dictator Musharraf in getting the 17th amendment through the parliament that legitimised all his unconstitutional and illegal steps including the overthrow of a democratically elected government. What moral right and authority does he have to pontificate so disdainfully on issues regarding which his stance may have contributed to the creation of a crisis in the first place?
Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan was also critical of the contours of the policy that the government is following to tackle the situation in Swat and other restive areas. One understands that the current approach is devoid of numerous requisites and essential ingredients that may be needed, but what is surprising that even he was not able to come up with an alternate strategy to handle the crisis. He was vocal regarding the need for extending support to the government at this critical stage for the sake of a unified stand, but looked unmindful of the consequences of the position that PML(N) is being perceived to be taking along the way. When the curtain falls, which does not seem far, no one would be willing to buy the argument that the support was extended for the reason cited. The critics would be justified in asking whether PML(N) had offered a more credible alternate course of action to combat the crisis that Pakistan is confronted with at this juncture of its history. In case of a negative answer, that is rather obvious, it is PML(N) that would be targeted to share the blame with the incumbent dispensation. I am afraid the current situation is turning out to be a repeat of what PML(N) had landed up with after Mr. Zardari reneged on all the promises that he made, verbally and in writing, with its leadership regarding the restoration of an independent judiciary. The argument that PML(N) had offered then was that it did not want to destabilize the democratic process, but its continued support to the government was perceived to be a convenient ploy to let the devil hang himself. The strategy did not work as it required a long march to force the PPP leadership to agree to the restoration of the judiciary and rehabilitate some of the credibility that PML(N) had lost along the way. Today, the party sits atop the pinnacle of moral authority that should not only be preserved, but strengthened further. This could happen only if its leadership realises the enormity of the challenge and comes out with a credible plan that is best suited to tackle the present and the emerging crisis. Just standing by as a spectator with an intention to let the government commit blunders, thus adding further value to the PML(N) leadership, would be taking a risk with the future of the country itself. There is little doubt that the current policy has been formulated away from the echelons of power and the only job entrusted to the local concoction is to enforce it. It is a perpetuation of the US mindset and the way it thinks about advancing its short- and long-term interests in this region. Pakistan has been reduced to the status of a lowly client state that is taking the dictation and implementing the policy ingredients irrespective of the immense damage that it may cause to its own inherent interests. As I have said repeatedly that only a legitimate leadership would have the ability and the moral authority to speak up for the interest of the country. That is not the case in Pakistan. We have a leadership that owes its existence in no small measure to the US. It, therefore, is devoid of the legitimacy that is so essential to piece together a multi-pronged plan that would best serve the interests of Pakistan. In the existing situation, PML(N) would have to demonstrate an even greater level of commitment to the country and come forth with the best combination of steps that should be immediately commissioned to save Pakistan from the disaster that it is headed towards in the current instance.
Because of persistent mishandling, the situation in the restive areas has deteriorated alarmingly and it may have drifted well beyond a routine dose of antibiotics. It may also be essential for a more surgical treatment of which a well-defined military action could be an essential component. But, there are so many other inputs that are apparently missing from the one-dimensional approach that is being pursued. Bloodshed is being responded to with more bloodshed. An abject lack of rational thinking is eliciting indiscriminate bombing. Pragmatism appears to have been replaced with a lopsided stress on the use of force as the exclusive means to confront the scourge of militancy. Let it be remembered that pursuing violence breeds violence. This may actually be happening and the operation that is currently underway may become an unending malady impacting the psyche of the entire country. Soon, it would be impossible to escape its consequent venomous tentacles that already run rather deep. It is time to pay heed. It is time to take a step back as that would not be a display of any lack of bravery, but a reiteration of a serious commitment to the salvation of Pakistan and its people.
The writer is an independent political analyst based in Islamabad

 

[arshad_lahore]

Tentacles of terrorism
By Sajjad Shaukat | Published: June 13, 2009
More than 17 people including some foreigners were killed and 70 injured on June 9 when a mini-truck, loaded with 500 Kg explosives, exploded at Pearl Continental hotel, Peshawar. In the past few days, terror-incidents have occurred at the public places of Peshawar, Dera Ismail Khan and Upper Dir including Police Rescue 15 at Islamabad, killing several persons as part of a new series of similar events which started on May 27 from Lahore where more than 30 people were killed when an explosive-laden van exploded near Rescue 15 building which was completely destroyed.
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) led by Baitullah Mehsud had claimed responsibility for the Lahore carnage. The actual target was the ISI building. Most of our analysts have been taking these incidents as retaliation of the Malakand military operation. But we cannot see the new terror-attacks in isolation. There is a need to keep in view all the inter-related developments.
As for the Lahore attack there are clear signs that Indian intelligence agency RAW is behind the incident. Its main focus was the ISI building. While most of our high officials avoid pointing a finger at RAW, Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah said on the same day that Indian involvement in "suicide attack in Lahore cannot be ruled out." Recently Federal Science and Technology Minister Azam Khan Swati revealed that America was open enemy of Pakistan and wanted to make India the leading power of the region. Despite American cooperation with Pakistan, its main aim remains to de-nuclearise our country. Even under President Obama who promised to maintain special relationship with the Islamic countries, Pakistan, its nuclear assets and ISI are targets of the foreign plot. In this regard, CIA, RAW and Mossad, which have established their tentacles in Afghanistan, have intensified their covert activities against Pakistan by sponsoring terrorism and supporting the insurgents in the Frontier Province and Balochistan. In Balochistan, BLA separatists have been creating lawlessness with the logistic support of these agencies.
As regards Bailtullah Mehsud, reports suggest that on several occasions, the US military commanders had been provided with his exact location by Pakistan's secret agencies, but the CIA-operated predators did not hunt him as he is Pakistan's real enemy who masterminded almost every suicide mission in the country including recent bombings in Peshawar, Islamabad and Lahore. In the past, US had killed the Taliban leader, Nek Muhammad through a missile when he was using his mobile phone, but Mehsud is free to talk on phone.
Undoubtedly, tentacles of terrorism exist in Afghanistan from where our enemies are supporting militants in Pakistan.
The writer is a foriegn affairs analyst