ڈیل ہو نہیں رہی ہو چکی ہے Deal or No Deal!

Kamran Stu

MPA (400+ posts)
Why did Nawaz Sharif decide to return? | Pakistan | thenews.com.pk

Mazhar Abbas

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Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz decision to return on July 13, knowing well that they can face long prison, has certainly given a new hope to Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) workers. Together, they will be facing 10 years and 7 years rigorous imprisonment, as per verdict of an accountability court. What could be possible reasons behind this decision? Does he want to correct the historical wrong committed in 2001, when he went into exile for 10 years, and hoping to see his party win July-25 elections?


His decision to return home is certainly a big political gamble, as he knows that it is now-or-never moment for him and his politics. Has he not decided to return, it would have given a walkover to his opponents and their counter narrative, led by Imran Khan that Sharif is out, and now the PML-N will be out also.

His main critics, Imran Khan and Asif Ali Zardari, were not sure about his return. One was saying, “London is his actual home”, while the other said that he (Nawaz) had applied for political asylum. Some are still not sure about his return and believe the plan can be changed at the last moment. But, the way his son-in-law decided to court arrest hinted at PML-N’s plans for July 13.

Nawaz and Maryam Nawaz know that if they don't return and face imprisonment, Sharif's narrative will die down, something which they don't want. They, in fact, want the PML-N to win the next elections on their very narrative.
Some PML-N sources hinted that Shahbaz Sharif is also convinced now that his brother's narrative is not all that wrong, as he himself fears arrest unless NAB decides to withhold action till elections. His speech on Saturday was far more aggressive than his previous speeches. He stressed more on Nawaz Sharif, his conviction, against NAB and the Nawaz Sharif policies than his own development schemes.


How the PML-N would react on July 13 would determine party's support on the ground, as both Shahbaz and Hamza have decided to lead the welcome procession. They have already given call for receiving Nawaz and Maryam warmly.
It will also be a test of the interim government and administration that how they tackle the situation, as there are chances of political tension in the city.


On the other hand, the return of Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz can silence their critics at least on one point that they did not run away from trial and conviction, like General (retd) Pervez Musharraf.They are also not very hopeful of acceptance of their appeal or protective bail. The two also know that they would not be kept in any sub-jail, as the conviction clearly stated that it would be rigorous imprisonment, and those who had seen prison know what did that mean.
Irrespective of the merit of the case from disqualification to conviction, Sharif's decision has buried all kinds of speculations about any ‘NRO’ (underhand deal). So, why he decided to come back so soon?


(1) Nawaz Sharif knows that his 2001 decision had not only damaged his politics but also led to break-up of the PML-N and made General (retd) Pervez Musharraf strong. Perhaps, he wants to correct his historical wrong.Nawaz and the family had faced conviction by an Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) in Karachi, when Justice (retd) Rehmat Hussain Jaffery was an ATC judge. He had sentenced Nawaz to life in jail in a plane hijacking case, registered on the directive of General (retd) Pervez Musharraf in Oct 1999.

Later, the then government filed an appeal in the Sindh High Court for enhancement of conviction from life to death sentence. It was at that point that the family felt Musharraf could send Nawaz to gallows, like Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. It was at that point that some family members contacted Saudi royal family and Musharraf allowed the whole family to leave Pakistan, on one condition that they would not return for at least for 10 years.

Nawaz Sharif always denied it and believed that Musharraf himself had planned to keep both him and Benazir out of politics, which he did during 2002 elections.It led to cracks in the PML-N, and the PML-Q became the favourite party of the then establishment, which shared power with Musharraf, along with a small group, PPP-Patriot.But Sharif carried that burden throughout his post-2001 politics, like the PPP faced criticism of doing an NRO with Musharraf in 2007. Benazir Bhutto immediately realised and broke the accord by returning on Oct 18, and as consequences was martyred on Dec 27, 2007.

Secondly, Nawaz Sharif also wants to prove that people have not accepted his disqualification as well as conviction. The only way available for him is to ensure the PML-N victory in elections. He knows that he cannot contest nor his daughter, but if the PML-N wins the next polls on his narrative, politically he will be able to propagate this perception.
Nawaz Sharif had built this perception after July 28, 2017, by leading a procession from GT Road to Lahore, against what he termed an injustice to him. Although, it also led to split views in the PML-N, events which followed after disqualification indicated that his narrative got approval of his followers.


Thirdly, Nawaz Sharif is also facing a serious dilemma of the political legacy. He will not be in the electoral race, but still wants that at least Maryam must get some space. He always wanted Maryam to play a role more than his ailing wife, Kalsoom Nawaz, who even surprised him when she had led the protest against Musharraf.

Maryam's entry into politics came along with Kalsoom Nawaz, but after the family left Pakistan, she could not get a chance to show her worth. The moment of her re-entry came after many years in the post-Panama era between 2016 and 2018. She led the campaign for her mother in NA-127, Lahore, and got her elected.She is facing a far more dilemma than her three times elected father. Her electoral debut has been blocked because of her conviction for seven years, and subsequent disqualification for 10 years. So, unless the conviction and disqualification are suspended, she has little chance to be elected to Parliament.

Sources close to Nawaz Sharif believe that the last two years had been the most painful years in his political career, not merely because of disqualification and conviction, but more because of direct and indirect remarks which came during the court proceedings.So, this is the final round for the Sharif family as well as for the PML-N. They knew that failure is not an option for them, particularly in the presence of such a powerful counter narrative, which is led by their toughest political rival, Imran Khan, who believes that his narrative against corruption would defeat Sharifs and their narrative on July 25.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang
Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO

Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz decision to return on July 13, knowing well that they can face long prison, has certainly given a new hope to Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) workers. Together, they will be facing 10 years and 7 years rigorous imprisonment, as per verdict of an accountability court. What could be possible reasons behind this decision? Does he want to correct the historical wrong committed in 2001, when he went into exile for 10 years, and hoping to see his party win July-25 elections?


His decision to return home is certainly a big political gamble, as he knows that it is now-or-never moment for him and his politics. Has he not decided to return, it would have given a walkover to his opponents and their counter narrative, led by Imran Khan that Sharif is out, and now the PML-N will be out also.

His main critics, Imran Khan and Asif Ali Zardari, were not sure about his return. One was saying, “London is his actual home”, while the other said that he (Nawaz) had applied for political asylum. Some are still not sure about his return and believe the plan can be changed at the last moment. But, the way his son-in-law decided to court arrest hinted at PML-N’s plans for July 13.

Nawaz and Maryam Nawaz know that if they don't return and face imprisonment, Sharif's narrative will die down, something which they don't want. They, in fact, want the PML-N to win the next elections on their very narrative.
Some PML-N sources hinted that Shahbaz Sharif is also convinced now that his brother's narrative is not all that wrong, as he himself fears arrest unless NAB decides to withhold action till elections. His speech on Saturday was far more aggressive than his previous speeches. He stressed more on Nawaz Sharif, his conviction, against NAB and the Nawaz Sharif policies than his own development schemes.


How the PML-N would react on July 13 would determine party's support on the ground, as both Shahbaz and Hamza have decided to lead the welcome procession. They have already given call for receiving Nawaz and Maryam warmly.
It will also be a test of the interim government and administration that how they tackle the situation, as there are chances of political tension in the city.


On the other hand, the return of Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz can silence their critics at least on one point that they did not run away from trial and conviction, like General (retd) Pervez Musharraf.They are also not very hopeful of acceptance of their appeal or protective bail. The two also know that they would not be kept in any sub-jail, as the conviction clearly stated that it would be rigorous imprisonment, and those who had seen prison know what did that mean.

Irrespective of the merit of the case from disqualification to conviction, Sharif's decision has buried all kinds of speculations about any ‘NRO’ (underhand deal). So, why he decided to come back so soon?

(1) Nawaz Sharif knows that his 2001 decision had not only damaged his politics but also led to break-up of the PML-N and made General (retd) Pervez Musharraf strong. Perhaps, he wants to correct his historical wrong.Nawaz and the family had faced conviction by an Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) in Karachi, when Justice (retd) Rehmat Hussain Jaffery was an ATC judge. He had sentenced Nawaz to life in jail in a plane hijacking case, registered on the directive of General (retd) Pervez Musharraf in Oct 1999.

Later, the then government filed an appeal in the Sindh High Court for enhancement of conviction from life to death sentence. It was at that point that the family felt Musharraf could send Nawaz to gallows, like Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. It was at that point that some family members contacted Saudi royal family and Musharraf allowed the whole family to leave Pakistan, on one condition that they would not return for at least for 10 years.Nawaz Sharif always denied it and believed that Musharraf himself had planned to keep both him and Benazir out of politics, which he did during 2002 elections.
It led to cracks in the PML-N, and the PML-Q became the favourite party of the then establishment, which shared power with Musharraf, along with a small group, PPP-Patriot.


But Sharif carried that burden throughout his post-2001 politics, like the PPP faced criticism of doing an NRO with Musharraf in 2007. Benazir Bhutto immediately realised and broke the accord by returning on Oct 18, and as consequences was martyred on Dec 27, 2007.Secondly, Nawaz Sharif also wants to prove that people have not accepted his disqualification as well as conviction. The only way available for him is to ensure the PML-N victory in elections. He knows that he cannot contest nor his daughter, but if the PML-N wins the next polls on his narrative, politically he will be able to propagate this perception.

Nawaz Sharif had built this perception after July 28, 2017, by leading a procession from GT Road to Lahore, against what he termed an injustice to him. Although, it also led to split views in the PML-N, events which followed after disqualification indicated that his narrative got approval of his followers.Thirdly, Nawaz Sharif is also facing a serious dilemma of the political legacy. He will not be in the electoral race, but still wants that at least Maryam must get some space. He always wanted Maryam to play a role more than his ailing wife, Kalsoom Nawaz, who even surprised him when she had led the protest against Musharraf.

Maryam's entry into politics came along with Kalsoom Nawaz, but after the family left Pakistan, she could not get a chance to show her worth. The moment of her re-entry came after many years in the post-Panama era between 2016 and 2018. She led the campaign for her mother in NA-127, Lahore, and got her elected.She is facing a far more dilemma than her three times elected father. Her electoral debut has been blocked because of her conviction for seven years, and subsequent disqualification for 10 years. So, unless the conviction and disqualification are suspended, she has little chance to be elected to Parliament.

Sources close to Nawaz Sharif believe that the last two years had been the most painful years in his political career, not merely because of disqualification and conviction, but more because of direct and indirect remarks which came during the court proceedings.

So, this is the final round for the Sharif family as well as for the PML-N. They knew that failure is not an option for them, particularly in the presence of such a powerful counter narrative, which is led by their toughest political rival, Imran Khan, who believes that his narrative against corruption would defeat Sharifs and their narrative on July 25.

Source
 
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LovePK-or-LeavePK

Senator (1k+ posts)
Lahore has spoken against PMLN. Nawaz's politics is dead and Maryam killed it. All this is just to give future hope to Maryam's ambitions of becoming PM of Pakistan. Nothing more and nothing less.

But little they know that she'll serve 7 years and then she'll have to wait another 10 to even participate in politics. So 17 years from now, Pakistan will be too far ahead of them. Their politics will become politics of the past while nation and people will move on too far ahead.

Also take in to account major changes in Pakistanis laws & constitutional amendments over next 5 years will make it totally impossible for them to come back to power.

Imran Khan has nothing to loose and if he becomes PM, he'll do rigorous legislation against corruption. These brutal new laws will move Pakistan from being "nation of outlaws" to "nation of laws". Sharif family and others like them will have no place in Pakistani politics. They cry about NAB laws now. Imagine what is coming their way.
 
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Kamran Stu

MPA (400+ posts)
ڈیل ہو نہیں رہی ہو چکی ہے

بڑی گیم ہے جناب
ہم جو دہکھ رہے ہیں پس منظر میں بہت کچھ ہے


What do you guys think that NS is coming without surety NO
There are guarantees so just wait & watch.
How will be the drama climax.
 

Birdie101

Senator (1k+ posts)
You can tell by Nawaz and his cronies faces that there is no deal yet.But, If he doesn't come to Pakistan now then....
 

rmunir

Minister (2k+ posts)
ساری دنیا میں پانامہ لیکس ميں نام آنے والے لیڈران کی چھٹی ہوچکی ہے۔ جن میں سے ذیادہ تر خود چھوڑ کرچلے گئے مورل گراؤنڈز پر۔ مگر پاکستان کی لیڈرشپ کی مورالٹی کا ابھی یہ معیار نہیں ہے۔ ایسی باتوں پر بذات خود استحفی دے دیتے۔ یہ واپسی ڈیل کے نتیجے میں نہیں بلکہ عدلیہ کی جانب سے دی گئی ڈھیل کے نتیجے میں ہورہی ہے جو اب ختم ہو گئی ہے۔
 

thinking

Prime Minister (20k+ posts)
No deal...deal Barbar ke bando ke darmiyan hoti ha..Nawaz ke ander itni aqal hoti tu 5 sal m itni be ghairati ur mulk dushmani na karta.. now game is over..
 

Glock

Senator (1k+ posts)
He's coming with FULL surety on BAIL!

I just hope the Govt is not as stupid as it looks and gives him bail on Monday, or before elections.... That will play havoc with security and law and order...!
 

kakajee

Minister (2k+ posts)
1). There is no deal. They had to come here anyway as otherwise they would have lost the right to appeal withindays of decision and also their politics would have completely finished.

2). They could also not stay in London on their own as chances were that once and If IK becomes PM, he would have dragged them to Pakistan. Not just Nawaz and Maryam, but everyone member of the family. This btw can still happen.

3). Lastly, the pont that everyone is ignoring is Kalsoom Nawaz. He had been kept as a hostage and patient for a reason. Nawaz will come here, try to spread as much anarchy as possible and would try to gain as much as possible. But if everything goes against him and he is put behined the bars, Kalsoom will make another entry through TV screens and both father, daughter will again run back to London.



I just hope that Allah finish this disgraceful, corrupt family sooner rather than later.
 

aneeskhan

Prime Minister (20k+ posts)
If Kanra 2 shut his one eye on Zardari and Faryal open and full proven corruption
So Why not for this Corrupt King and Queen

Riaz Malik Zardari Rao Anwar all case halted
So soon Kanra 2 will close his 2nd eye
Yeahi tu Kehna Meiney tu Nahi Kaha sirf Gen Bharkoo ki Tarah Bharak hi Mari hai
 

fslsyed

Politcal Worker (100+ posts)
Imran Khan ko bewaquf banaya jaraha hai. Establishment Nawaz Shariff sai mili hoyee hai. Is mulk ka Allah Hafiz.
 

Kamran Stu

MPA (400+ posts)
سیاسی لیڈروں کی بات مانیں یا اللہ کے آخری پیغمبر صل اللہ علیہ وآلہ وسلم کی؟ فرمایا: وہ قومیں تباہ ہو گئیں جو اپنے کمزوروں کو سزا دیتی اور طاقتوروں کو معاف کر دیا کرتی تھیں۔
 

arafay

Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
Actually no deal is possible right now without IK's approval. Without IK a deal would have happened long time ago.
 

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