Sohail Shuja
Chief Minister (5k+ posts)
IK's decision to write to IMF regarding the disbursement of the tranche of the standby agreement seems to be a matter raising concerns, even within the ranks and files of the PTI leadership.
PTI leaders against IK writing letter to IMF
Senator Barrister Syed Ali Zafar of the PTI toned down the party’s stance on approaching the IMF. He said Pakistan should continue to engage with the IMF to ensure financial discipline, good governance, and economic stability, which are critical for the prosperity of Pakistan’s people.
In a post on X, he wrote: “For PTI, Pakistan will always be first and foremost. While we will continue to support all steps in this direction taken for the benefit of the country and in the national interest, PTI will continue its struggle for democracy and raise its voice at all forums and expect the international community’s support.”
Mr Zafar said he would advise Imran Khan to show restraint as writing to IMF at this juncture would not be a good option.
IMF's Response:
During a presser in New York, Julie Kozack, the director of the communications department at IMF, was asked whether Pakistan was on track to securing the third tranche of the short-term agreement and whether the IMF would entertain any letter by Mr Khan about the election irregularities.
In her response, Ms Kozack said: “On Jan 11, the IMF executive board approved the first review of the Stand-By Arrangement with Pakistan that brought total disbursements under the Stand-By Arrangement to $1.9 billion. The Stand-By Arrangement is supporting the authority’s efforts to stabilise the economy and to, of course, with a strong focus on protecting the most vulnerable.”
She said that during the tenure of the caretaker government, the “authorities have maintained economic stability”.
“This has been done through strict adherence to fiscal targets while also protecting the social safety net. It has been done by maintaining a tight monetary policy stance to control inflation and to continue to build up foreign exchange reserves,” she said.
“We look forward to working with the new government on policies to ensure macroeconomic stability and prosperity for all of Pakistan’s citizens. And I am going to leave it at that.”
As for Imran Khan’s letter, Ms Kozack said: “I’m not going to comment on ongoing political developments. So, I don’t have anything else to add to what I just said.”
US Senate's Response:
Meanwhile, US Senator Chris Van Hollen, a key member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, has reminded Pakistani authorities that they need to respect the people’s mandate if they want meaningful deals with lenders like the IMF.
Senator Van Hollen stressed the necessity for a robust government supported by the people to make vital decisions. “Pakistan’s current economic and security challenges require a strong government with the backing of the Pakistani people to make the difficult but necessary decisions,” he wrote.
In a letter sent to Pakistan Ambassador to US Masood Khan on Thursday, he argued that “respecting the decision of the Pakistani people, expressed through their votes, is the only way a new government will be empowered to tackle issues facing Pakistan such as negotiating a new IMF agreement or investing to mitigate future floods.”
Urging Pakistani authorities to fully investigate the allegations of fraud and electoral interference, he added, “Without a credible investigation, a new government will struggle to bring the Pakistani people together.”
Pakistan and the United States, he said, shared many interests, including addressing climate change and ensuring a secure, stable, and prosperous South Asia.
Analysis
Pakistan is world's seventh largest population and located at a very conspicuous Geo-strategic location in South Asia, where the visual cortex of all the superpowers of the world converge. Pakistan lies under the soft bellies of China & Russia. It is the shortest possible way for China to reach the hot waters of Arabian sea and to revive its old silk route to Europe via Central Asia. Pakistan is also important for the Gulf Countries for their trade with the industrial giant China, who is the biggest oil purchaser and their biggest exporter as well -- The road to excellence for China and Gulf countries lead through Pakistan.
On the other hand, Pakistan is also a nuclear state. It is a threat for its immediate neighbors & far off "new states", stricto sensu, if Pakistan fails to function as a state. In case of a malfunction on state level, Pakistan can, at the very least, proliferate the nuclear technology to change the power balance in the region or perhaps the whole wide world. If cornered by the International community, it can become much worse of a problem than North Korea.
Therefore, it is not in anyone's interest, internationally, to let Pakistan default on its financial obligations. This is why, neither IMF nor China has ever backed off from helping Pakistan under the financial duress. Therefore, it is beyond question that they will turn their backs now, due to the reasons discussed above. It may not be totally a romance with the corrupt and politicians and the administration of the country, but due to the dangers Pakistan pose to the international powers in its entirety of being.
So, whether IK writes a letter to IMF or not, they have to give Pakistan a lifeline, for their own vested interests.
Therefore, why should PTI take this road, when it is going to backfire in the end?
PTI, in the recent elections has been very artistically given majority in KPK and also been given the most seats in the National Assembly as well. These results will also be brought on to the table in negotiations with the IMF and they will create just enough reason for them to sanction the next tranche, obviously, with some statements regarding expeditious judicial disposal of the cases of disputed election results.
In my honest opinion, PTI has seen that by quitting this system, their struggle against the system becomes detrimental in both ways -- their party gets annihilated and even if they start winning, it weakens the state institutions, which, also becomes a problem of the sovereignty of Pakistan. It is just like having a surgery on your liver and heart at the same time, by your ownself.
So, a better option would be to not to repeat the mistakes of the past. Remain in the system to keep your nuisance value. Master the system to reign it and then turn it into the direction where you want. Keep playing politics in the house and bring the chachoo down on his knees.
We have seen surrender of Maulana Diesel in this regard. I don't know how anyone else looks at it but in my opinion, Maulana knows that PTI is going to make Govt in KPK and that is where he lives, his party lives. So, if PTI starts screwing up Maulana for his deeds as the head of PDM vengefully, as they have the power now, then Maulana will also be put behind bars in some jail in KPK. This is why now Maulana has started to bad mouth his old friend in cahoots (Bajwa & Co.). I think PTI should contemplate this factor of power and make the best use of the mandate (no matter how much tainted by the miltablishment) given to them by the people of Pakistan.
PTI leaders against IK writing letter to IMF
Senator Barrister Syed Ali Zafar of the PTI toned down the party’s stance on approaching the IMF. He said Pakistan should continue to engage with the IMF to ensure financial discipline, good governance, and economic stability, which are critical for the prosperity of Pakistan’s people.
In a post on X, he wrote: “For PTI, Pakistan will always be first and foremost. While we will continue to support all steps in this direction taken for the benefit of the country and in the national interest, PTI will continue its struggle for democracy and raise its voice at all forums and expect the international community’s support.”
Mr Zafar said he would advise Imran Khan to show restraint as writing to IMF at this juncture would not be a good option.
IMF's Response:
During a presser in New York, Julie Kozack, the director of the communications department at IMF, was asked whether Pakistan was on track to securing the third tranche of the short-term agreement and whether the IMF would entertain any letter by Mr Khan about the election irregularities.
In her response, Ms Kozack said: “On Jan 11, the IMF executive board approved the first review of the Stand-By Arrangement with Pakistan that brought total disbursements under the Stand-By Arrangement to $1.9 billion. The Stand-By Arrangement is supporting the authority’s efforts to stabilise the economy and to, of course, with a strong focus on protecting the most vulnerable.”
She said that during the tenure of the caretaker government, the “authorities have maintained economic stability”.
“This has been done through strict adherence to fiscal targets while also protecting the social safety net. It has been done by maintaining a tight monetary policy stance to control inflation and to continue to build up foreign exchange reserves,” she said.
“We look forward to working with the new government on policies to ensure macroeconomic stability and prosperity for all of Pakistan’s citizens. And I am going to leave it at that.”
As for Imran Khan’s letter, Ms Kozack said: “I’m not going to comment on ongoing political developments. So, I don’t have anything else to add to what I just said.”
US Senate's Response:
Meanwhile, US Senator Chris Van Hollen, a key member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, has reminded Pakistani authorities that they need to respect the people’s mandate if they want meaningful deals with lenders like the IMF.
Senator Van Hollen stressed the necessity for a robust government supported by the people to make vital decisions. “Pakistan’s current economic and security challenges require a strong government with the backing of the Pakistani people to make the difficult but necessary decisions,” he wrote.
In a letter sent to Pakistan Ambassador to US Masood Khan on Thursday, he argued that “respecting the decision of the Pakistani people, expressed through their votes, is the only way a new government will be empowered to tackle issues facing Pakistan such as negotiating a new IMF agreement or investing to mitigate future floods.”
Urging Pakistani authorities to fully investigate the allegations of fraud and electoral interference, he added, “Without a credible investigation, a new government will struggle to bring the Pakistani people together.”
Pakistan and the United States, he said, shared many interests, including addressing climate change and ensuring a secure, stable, and prosperous South Asia.
Analysis
Pakistan is world's seventh largest population and located at a very conspicuous Geo-strategic location in South Asia, where the visual cortex of all the superpowers of the world converge. Pakistan lies under the soft bellies of China & Russia. It is the shortest possible way for China to reach the hot waters of Arabian sea and to revive its old silk route to Europe via Central Asia. Pakistan is also important for the Gulf Countries for their trade with the industrial giant China, who is the biggest oil purchaser and their biggest exporter as well -- The road to excellence for China and Gulf countries lead through Pakistan.
On the other hand, Pakistan is also a nuclear state. It is a threat for its immediate neighbors & far off "new states", stricto sensu, if Pakistan fails to function as a state. In case of a malfunction on state level, Pakistan can, at the very least, proliferate the nuclear technology to change the power balance in the region or perhaps the whole wide world. If cornered by the International community, it can become much worse of a problem than North Korea.
Therefore, it is not in anyone's interest, internationally, to let Pakistan default on its financial obligations. This is why, neither IMF nor China has ever backed off from helping Pakistan under the financial duress. Therefore, it is beyond question that they will turn their backs now, due to the reasons discussed above. It may not be totally a romance with the corrupt and politicians and the administration of the country, but due to the dangers Pakistan pose to the international powers in its entirety of being.
So, whether IK writes a letter to IMF or not, they have to give Pakistan a lifeline, for their own vested interests.
Therefore, why should PTI take this road, when it is going to backfire in the end?
PTI, in the recent elections has been very artistically given majority in KPK and also been given the most seats in the National Assembly as well. These results will also be brought on to the table in negotiations with the IMF and they will create just enough reason for them to sanction the next tranche, obviously, with some statements regarding expeditious judicial disposal of the cases of disputed election results.
In my honest opinion, PTI has seen that by quitting this system, their struggle against the system becomes detrimental in both ways -- their party gets annihilated and even if they start winning, it weakens the state institutions, which, also becomes a problem of the sovereignty of Pakistan. It is just like having a surgery on your liver and heart at the same time, by your ownself.
So, a better option would be to not to repeat the mistakes of the past. Remain in the system to keep your nuisance value. Master the system to reign it and then turn it into the direction where you want. Keep playing politics in the house and bring the chachoo down on his knees.
We have seen surrender of Maulana Diesel in this regard. I don't know how anyone else looks at it but in my opinion, Maulana knows that PTI is going to make Govt in KPK and that is where he lives, his party lives. So, if PTI starts screwing up Maulana for his deeds as the head of PDM vengefully, as they have the power now, then Maulana will also be put behind bars in some jail in KPK. This is why now Maulana has started to bad mouth his old friend in cahoots (Bajwa & Co.). I think PTI should contemplate this factor of power and make the best use of the mandate (no matter how much tainted by the miltablishment) given to them by the people of Pakistan.
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