Why lock down is not the solution for countries like us...

[desan]

Purpose of the lockdown is to slow down the spread of the disease so that the healthcare system does not get overwhelmed and able handle the volume of deathly ill patients. That is why the importance of critical care beds and race for the accumulation of ventilators is highlighted.

Normally Western countries have excess beds and ventilators, so that they can easily withstand a slight rapid surge of demand, like during a disaster or a major flu season.

US:
Ventilators = 200,000 (however, there is a need for a million of them)
Hospital beds = ~ 1 million (need several millions for COVID)

Pakistan:
Ventilators = 2 - 3 thousands (will probably need at least a million)
Beds = ??? (Don't expect to be no where those in the US)

Based on above statistics, one can see that we are woefully unprepared to handle this pandemic. Slowing the COVID will have no value for us and worse it will further protract the disease and as a result will have a significant impact on the economy and people's livelihood.

Like to hear a counter argument or better strategy if there is one.

https://www.siasat.pk/forums/threads/why-flattening-of-the-curve-through-a-locdown-will-hurt-us-even-more.747502/

 

[thinking]

We don't have health structure to handle Virus like C is..
only option left to slow down spread is lock down..at least partially if not full lock down..Nawaz.. Zardari bizi looting the country and making Thiers own wealth..they didn't build health facilities for normal circumstances..So we only survive to do lock down and tests.. treatment what recourses we have..Health structure can't build within months..it's needs years..

 

[desan]

We don't have health structure to handle Virus like C is..
only option left to slow down spread is lock down..at least partially if not full lock down..Nawaz.. Zardari bizi looting the country and making Thiers own wealth..they didn't build health facilities for normal circumstances..So we only survive to do lock down and tests.. treatment what recourses we have..Health structure can't build within months..it's needs years..

How the slow down through lock down will help???

What will prevent virus from popping back up after the lock down is over???

 

[Hussain1967]

How the slow down through lock down will help???

What will prevent virus from popping back up after the lock down is over???

It is said that this virus can’t survive long without human host. This is according to one of the hypothesis in a recent paper published in Nature. It can’t survive alone in the atmosphere. There it will die down naturally.

 

[desan]

It is said that this virus can’t survive long without human host. This is according to one of the hypothesis in a recent paper published in Nature. It can’t survive alone in the atmosphere. There it will die down naturally.

We are risking bankruptsy and destruction of economy on that hypothesis!!!

 

[Hussain1967]

We are risking bankruptsy and destruction of economy on that hypothesis!!!

Yeah, that’s the price ,unfortunately. Lockdowns have to be on periodic basis, not at one long stretch.

 

[desan]

Yeah, that’s the price ,unfortunately. Lockdowns have to be on periodic basis, not at one long stretch.

One could reluctantly accept this hefty price, except the probablity of eliminating COVID with this policy is extremely low due to extremely poor chance of success of this total lockdown.