Who is leading from KPK & Punjab - Dunya news survey

[najeebahmad]

Total between two provinces:
PTI: 85
PMLN: 56

KPK total : 39 MNA
PTI : 28
MMA: 6
QWP: 1
PMLN: 1
IND: 1
TIE: 2 (PTI tie with another party)

Punjab: 141 MNA but result only show 125 constituency surveys
PTI/AML 57
PMLQ 3
PMLN 56
PMLZ 1
PPP 1
IND 6
TIE : 1 (between PTI/PMLN)

PTI advantage:
-This survey is not current so PTI has likely gained more in the last few days in absence of Nawaz and Maryam.
-Imran is known to run aggressive campaign in the last 2 weeks with averaging 4-6 Jalsa's per day
-PTI is likely to gain few seats in Karachi and few in Sindh

Source from Dunya news: http://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/449132-Dunya-Election-Cell-Survey-2018-results

 

[rehman1978]

The Punjab total does not add upto 135

 

[rizhussain44]

Only 57 seats for PTI from Punjab! that's I think rubbish

 

[Unlettered]

This survey is not current

The survey is ancient actually considering the pace things are changing. Everybody now is claiming at least 70 plus seats in Punjab for PTI.

 

[Technocrat]

I think PMLQ will surprise us.

 

[Abid_J]

The Punjab total does not add upto 135

پنجاب کی ایک سو اکتالیس ہیں
کچھ پر الیکشن نہیں ہو رہا ہوگا
IND = 16

 

[Abid_J]

Only 57 seats for PTI from Punjab! that's I think rubbish

56 Seats for PML from Punjab , that I think is rubbish. may be they will get 40

 

[Mirza Marjana]

Total bakwas... Raja je bakwas krma jy.....

 

[Amal]

 

[Mirza Marjana]

Amin..............

 

[Rizwan2009]

ڈالر ايک سو تيس روپے کا ہوچکا ہے پاکستاني قوم پر مہنگائي کا ايک ہولناک سيلاب آنے والا ہے اگر شريفوں زرداريوں اور متحدہ مجلس عمل کے منافقين کو ہي ووٹ ديا تو يقيني طور پر ملک انتشار کا شکار ہوگا، آنے والے دور ميں، ميں مارشل لاء ديکھ رہا ہوں

 

[Abid_J]

You are underestimating pml-n.Even in worse election of 2008, They were able to win 60+ seats from punjab.

It was not worst. It was their best shot if benazir was not murdered. Their worst performance was in 2003 and 1996.

 

[Anonymous Paki]

pti needs more than these seats from punjab

 

[Abid_J]

By worse, I meant that they were in weaker position due to benazir murder.And yet, They were able to win these many seats.

Thats why i said, it was not their weakest. It was okay situation. 2013 Kiyani, 35 puncture and other phenomenon were in place. Ballot boxes were filled with Newspapers, tissues etc to get majority.

 

[Mirza Marjana]

Yeah, Well even pti senior leadership watches Habib Akram surveys.Moeed Pirzada said that he went to Aleem khan residence where other leadership were also present.They take Habib Akram surveys very seriously.the only argument was that they expect to win 75 seats while Habib is getting then 65 at best.And, These surveys have been conducted four times yielding the same results so they are credible.The only issue is that there are many seats where the competition is very tough and close.Like, There are many seats where pti is winning with 1-3 percent, Same for pml-n.Anything can happen there.

lets see brother its matter of hours now............................ we should pray for change......

jitny logo sy mre baat hui hy most of them were silent voters and tilting towards pti...... alot depends on silent voters,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, the thing which gives hope is there are very very narrow chances of pmln rigging this time.......

agr PMLN rigging na kr saki tu pti punjab man 80 to 90 seats ly jy ge,,,,,,,,,, this is my guess and feelings......... and some calculation as well

 

[Atta01]

In order to make(comfortable) central government , pti need at least 115 - 120 seats at their own.
In my opinion, based on till date datas , from KP pti will get minimum 30-35 seats (fata included).
From Punjab(islamabad included) 70-80.
From Sindh (karachi included) 5-15 .
From Balochistan 2-5.
Total (minimum)=107
Total (maximum)=135
.....lets put maximum individual efforts in, PRAY & wait for the exact results....

 

[Mirza Marjana]

If rigging happens then it will be anti pml-n.No chance of any pro pml-n rigging happen.And, Yeah swing voter will be the factor on close margin seats.I think, Imran Khan deserving at-least one chance argument is very strong for people who aren't affiliated with any party.

agreed.......... IK ek chance dena chay...... its very effective argument...........

secondly.... PTI failed to present that vote to NS is Vote to modi...... its reality to me.............. pti couldnt effectively present in compaign

 

[TruthWillOut]

Qurban jayen saadgi per aaapki..

Dil per haath rakh ker kahen ke kya pti punjab mein 20 se ziada seats le sakti he kisi bhi terha?aur to aur imran khan ki apni seat bhi pakki nahin..kpk mein bhi MMA ki emergence ke baat pti ki position kafi weak ho chuki he .. Ho sakta he pti wahan bhee 15 se kam seats jeete.. Kpk government bhee banti nazar nahin aarhee. Pmln punjab mein 100 se ziada seats jeetne ki position mein hen easily. Kpk mein MMA aur PMLN asani se 20 plus seats jeet jayengay.

Tayyar ho jao sher ko hakoomat dobara aarhee he

 

[Aventador]

List updated to include more constituencies. Shows PTI at 102 and PMLN at 61

 

[Realistic Change]

Total between two provinces:
PTI: 85
PMLN: 56

KPK total : 39 MNA
PTI : 28
MMA: 6
QWP: 1
PMLN: 1
IND: 1
TIE: 2 (PTI tie with another party)

Punjab: 141 MNA but result only show 125 constituency surveys
PTI/AML 57
PMLQ 3
PMLN 56
PMLZ 1
PPP 1
IND 6
TIE : 1 (between PTI/PMLN)

PTI advantage:
-This survey is not current so PTI has likely gained more in the last few days in absence of Nawaz and Maryam.
-Imran is known to run aggressive campaign in the last 2 weeks with averaging 4-6 Jalsa's per day
-PTI is likely to gain few seats in Karachi and few in Sindh

Source from Dunya news: http://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/449132-Dunya-Election-Cell-Survey-2018-results

Even in updated version - some seats from Southern Punjab (south of Bahawalpur like RYK, Rajanpur, DGK not included) are not uploaded while 12 of FATA are missing. I still stand by my earlier estimate of PTI getting around 116-124 without GDA (9-10), IND (10-14), PMLQ (3), AML (1), BAP (4) - Out of IND that we are foreseeing winning, 7-9 are likely to join PTI making party strength of 123-133.

Above coalition strength that we have estimated is GDA (9-10), PMLQ (3) AML (1), BAP (4) = 17-18 this adding to 123-133 makes it 140-151.

As there are closely fought elections in some of the constituencies - there could be margin of error of +/- of 3-5 seats (where estimated margin is less than 2-3k votes) which makes the numbers as 137/145 to 148/156.

I have not provisioned for the forward block that PMLN has and will split from PMLN under the leadership from an MNA from Central Punjab (not Nisar) or if that "active" member of PMLN wins from Balochistan. That group's strength is estimated (winning candidates of PMLN is in the range of 21-24. With forward block of PMLN the total strength of Po Govt Members could be 166-180 out of 272 directly elected members.

Let's see how this pans out!