What alternative realistic choices Pakistan has if they do not want IMF?
It is clear that Pakistan is avoiding IMF conditions ,however, does our government has any alternative plan how to get funds for 10.5 billion dollar debt payment?
Yes PTI government did a good job in controlling imports and Remittance and RDA. However, CDS is rising, which was one the main reason IMF give us harsher conditions in 2019 compare to 2018.
IMF is not only about Loan it is also about credit rating as well ,which helps us to get loans on out term and issue bonds at cheaper rates.
I think personally that PM will make Hammad Azhar again FM in September early because due IHC rule Shaukat Tarin can only be giving powers for 6 months and PM it self will be not interested in him to give more due to that it is not in Pakistan interest to leave IMF program prematurely.
Another breather factor that may be Shaukat Tarin will relaying is on is IMF SDR allocation in late August ,which is amounted to 2.8 billion, which will give a massive boost to reserve but not rupee because it is directly given SBP and it is not a transaction through inter bank.
Inshallah Pakistan will have reserve up to 29 billion dollar in late August ,however, it will not make rupee stable because investor will be kept away from rupee invest like Government securities and debts investment ,which has a direct link with Inter Bank.
It is clear that we will adopt IMF approach because CAD is booming, Rupee is sliding, investors are taking their money out from PSX, and rupee is being made less attractive due to CDS.
My only worry is that IMF does not put more harsh conditions like 2019 when we tried to avoided IMF in 2018 ,which was less harsh condition. It is not question of if and it is question when we will apply the conditions because stability is more important at the moment and yes it will bring inflation.
In my point of view, Pakistan trying hard to get a leverage over Afghanistan issue ,however, I hope and Insallah Pakistan gets leverage, waiver, debt relief it wants. However, i do not think we any choice accept IMF. We have tried it in 2018 and failed badly and we cannot go in that direction and get more harsh condition due to delay IMF program.
It is clear that Pakistan is avoiding IMF conditions ,however, does our government has any alternative plan how to get funds for 10.5 billion dollar debt payment?
Yes PTI government did a good job in controlling imports and Remittance and RDA. However, CDS is rising, which was one the main reason IMF give us harsher conditions in 2019 compare to 2018.
IMF is not only about Loan it is also about credit rating as well ,which helps us to get loans on out term and issue bonds at cheaper rates.
I think personally that PM will make Hammad Azhar again FM in September early because due IHC rule Shaukat Tarin can only be giving powers for 6 months and PM it self will be not interested in him to give more due to that it is not in Pakistan interest to leave IMF program prematurely.
Another breather factor that may be Shaukat Tarin will relaying is on is IMF SDR allocation in late August ,which is amounted to 2.8 billion, which will give a massive boost to reserve but not rupee because it is directly given SBP and it is not a transaction through inter bank.
Inshallah Pakistan will have reserve up to 29 billion dollar in late August ,however, it will not make rupee stable because investor will be kept away from rupee invest like Government securities and debts investment ,which has a direct link with Inter Bank.
It is clear that we will adopt IMF approach because CAD is booming, Rupee is sliding, investors are taking their money out from PSX, and rupee is being made less attractive due to CDS.
My only worry is that IMF does not put more harsh conditions like 2019 when we tried to avoided IMF in 2018 ,which was less harsh condition. It is not question of if and it is question when we will apply the conditions because stability is more important at the moment and yes it will bring inflation.
In my point of view, Pakistan trying hard to get a leverage over Afghanistan issue ,however, I hope and Insallah Pakistan gets leverage, waiver, debt relief it wants. However, i do not think we any choice accept IMF. We have tried it in 2018 and failed badly and we cannot go in that direction and get more harsh condition due to delay IMF program.
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